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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not a bad guess....here is 1970-1989 and 2001-2020 for ORH snowfall through 12/10

 

ORH_snow_Dec10.png

I just was looking at these again....check out the "Good La Nina" Decembers.....a lot of them had crappy totals through 12/10 and then all hell broke loose later in the month:

1970, 1975, 2000 (not on there but was paltry through 12/10), 2007, 2008, 2010....and both 2005 and 2017 had big events on 12/9 with not much before that....which may still happen this year.

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's a nasty ice look on some guidance next week. Ukie looks nasty up there.

That high starts off near Quebec City and then slowly slides east....that would be really cold probably all the way into SNE even....GGEM and GFS aren't really buying that high location, but if the Ukie is more correct, then you'd see that system likely trend colder.

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35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That high starts off near Quebec City and then slowly slides east....that would be really cold probably all the way into SNE even....GGEM and GFS aren't really buying that high location, but if the Ukie is more correct, then you'd see that system likely trend colder.

Yeah I was a considering the exact same aspects but ... the thing with this progressive nature to the flow ... the "correction vector" may actually be less supportive of the UKMET.  

it sucks  sick of it.  like everything just tries get around the planet immediately when it emerges

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The other aspect that's as fun as a splinter lodged in the rib area of a sweater's fabric is that these individual horizon emergence' ?  They unrelentingly become less and less as they get closer and closer in time.   Maybe not on a straight diagonal to hell but the end points invariable seem to feature a verification that is downsized -

 

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The Euro trended pretty heavily toward the GFS for that gig next week...  That's a polar warm sector for SNE on just this one 12z cycle. 

plus, it's likely over-amped - like I just got done saying... - but how about -30C over mid Ontario D7 poised and ready   wow...   and right after we get rain, too - perfect!

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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We can’t even do 1-3 in SNE on a front end . Warmth just overwhelming 

Its not really a warm pattern...just need some luck with all of the cold dumping out west, and we aren't getting it as modeled quite yet. Reminds me of 20018-2019 a bit.

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