December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas

[EastonSN+]

Teles

PNA going sharply negative

AO rising 

NAO rising

Good news is MJO is heading to phase 7 at a decent level.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

I’d feel good up in PF land. These things always trend N last minute. 

I think it will trend north, but I still think north of the pike is in great shape for plowable...probably down to I84, but its gets tenuous there.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 12/1/2021 at 4:38 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You know it’s a bad pattern when George can’t locate a shortwave anywhere in the world capable of exploding into a boston blizzard.

 How did I miss this gem

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Teles

PNA going sharply negative

AO rising 

NAO rising

Good news is MJO is heading to phase 7 at a decent level.

 

 

By the holidays....

Weenies rising

[Typhoon Tip]

The MJO's wave is propagating on the southern side of the Equator

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

The MJO wave propagating on the southern side of the Equator

The MJO wave down under send forecasts a blunder?

[shawnmov]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I went up to the top of one of those peaks on my honeymoon in 2018...no joke....like 12K.

Certainly is no joke on those peaks.  Was at Haleakala during February on year and we had snow/sleet and 50mph winds.  Amazing experience to go from 80s at the base and then a quick hour drive up to winter.

[Great Snow 1717]

24 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

I’d feel good up in PF land. These things frequently trend N last minute. 

Agree

 

[NorEastermass128]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it will trend north, but I still think north of the pike is in great shape for plowable...probably down to I84, but its gets tenuous there.

I haven’t looked at any output at all, but does 12/3/07 ring a bell?  I recall a similar SWF-type event that laid the ground for a good month. 

[rclab]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

By the holidays....

Weenies rising

“Sigh” if only ….. As always ….

[dryslot]

After looking at last nights model runs for mid week next week.

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The MJO wave down under send forecasts a blunder?

Something like that I guess. heh...

But the momentum distribution - I suspect .. - matters.   You know, whether it's straddles the Equator on both sides, or is biased N vs S..etc.   I am not absolutely certain that entirely limits the other hemisphere from exertion when it does, but I suspect that is the case.  As an indirect/fwiw the PDF's author goes out of their way to mention the S bias and it doesn't seem logical for them to do so if it didn't matter.. ha.  

Anyway, flux moves polar-ward from the MJO latent heat release axis as the wave and its attended convective mass(es) propagate along - not toward and through the Equator - sort of think of it as an atmospheric asymptote

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Something like that I guess. heh...

But the momentum distribution - I suspect .. - matters.   You know, whether it's straddles the Equator on both sides, or is biased N vs S..etc.   I am not absolutely certain that entirely limits the other hemisphere from exertion when it does, but I suspect that is the case.  As an indirect/fwiw the PDF's author goes out of their way to mention the S bias and it doesn't seem logical for them to do so if it didn't matter.. ha.  

Anyway, flux moves polar-ward from the MJO latent heat release axis as the wave and its attended convective mass(es) propagate along - not toward and through the Equator - sort of think of it as an atmospheric asymptote

Yea, that's how you get your favorite phenomenon....the ever expanding Hadley Cell.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

I haven’t looked at any output at all, but does 12/3/07 ring a bell?  I recall a similar SWF-type event that laid the ground for a good month. 

Yea, but this month isn't going to be as prolific as 12/07 because the pattern will be interrupted with that mild stretch after this event.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, that's how you get your favorite phenomenon....the ever expanding Hadley Cell.

separate matter entirely ...

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

separate matter entirely ...

Pretty sure that any heat flux from the tropics contributes to Hadley Cell arrangement at least indirectly.

I wasn't trying to say that its expanding because of the convection....

[40/70 Benchmark]

ICON model blows....nearly totally lost the event lol.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, but this month isn't going to be as prolific as 12/07 because the pattern will be interrupted with that mild stretch after this event.

12/07 turned to shit after the norlun on 12/19-12/20....we got basically all of our snow in a 7-8 day period. We did get a smaller event on 12/31 that mixed plus those advisory amounts up near the NH border in 12/3 (more up in NNE), but the Lion's share of snow fell between 12/13-12/20.

I agree we won't be as prolific, but just pointing out that if the pattern actually flips to more favorable sometime between 12/15 and 12/20, there's plenty of time to rack up pretty big numbers. It often only takes a couple events in close proximity (2008 also did this).

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

12/07 turned to shit after the norlun on 12/19-12/20....we got basically all of our snow in a 7-8 day period. We did get a smaller event on 12/31 that mixed plus those advisory amounts up near the NH border in 12/3 (more up in NNE), but the Lion's share of snow fell between 12/13-12/20.

I agree we won't be as prolific, but just pointing out that if the pattern actually flips to more favorable sometime between 12/15 and 12/20, there's plenty of time to rack up pretty big numbers. It often only takes a couple events in close proximity (2008 also did this).

That is true...I guess the fact that the shit interlude comes earlier this month biased my view.

[wkd]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Better hope the pattern changes because La Nina's are warmer in the 2nd half of winter. Maybe it's different this year and we actually get lucky with blocking.

If we're going to have an warmer than average winter, it may as well happen when fuel oil prices are high.

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Pretty sure the heat flux from the tropics contributes to Hadley Cell arrangement at least indirectly.

Oh I see - sure ... 'indirectly'  -as in...after all physical processes have finished restoring, and the total system state is at rest ( entropy), the HC's scalar dimension is what it is.   And what it is or has become rather, bigger than it was in 1980  -

Think of it is as 'after the heat has been added to the integral'

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is true...I guess the fact that the shit interlude comes earlier this month biased my view.

Yeah and there's no guarantee the pattern is that great in the second half....obviously a lot of the time it comes down to timing. Both 2007 and 2008 weren't great patterns. They were serviceable though and because they were very active, we managed to hit a few events in close proximity when all the cold in Canada bled down over us. We also saw the downside as we had to withstand a cutter or two.

Still, those types of patterns are way better than the death vortex over the Bering where there's no cold at all to tap into....ala 2011 and 2015.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh I see - sure ... 'indirectly'  -as in...after all physical processes have finished restoring, and the total system state is at rest ( entropy), the HC's scalar dimension is what it is.   And what it is or has become rather, is bigger than it was in 1980  -

Think of it is as 'after the heat has been added to the integral'

 

 

Yea, I wasn't trying to imply that that is why its expanding....that is a separate matter, agreed. All I mean was that its the convection that rises and gives off the heat flux, that induces sinking motion to the north.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah and there's no guarantee the pattern is that great in the second half....obviously a lot of the time it comes down to timing. Both 2007 and 2008 weren't great patterns. They were serviceable though and because they were very active, we managed to hit a few events in close proximity when all the cold in Canada bled down over us. We also saw the downside as we had to withstand a cutter or two.

Still, those types of patterns are way better than the death vortex over the Bering where there's no cold at all to tap into....ala 2011 and 2015.

 

Yea, this pattern could theoretically be as prolific as those two months, but odds are that it won't.

[EasternLI]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, but this month isn't going to be as prolific as 12/07 because the pattern will be interrupted with that mild stretch after this event.

I've been guessing that Typhoon in the far west pacific is playing some roll with that.

[tamarack]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

12/07 turned to shit after the norlun on 12/19-12/20....we got basically all of our snow in a 7-8 day period. We did get a smaller event on 12/31 that mixed plus those advisory amounts up near the NH border in 12/3 (more up in NNE), but the Lion's share of snow fell between 12/13-12/20.

I agree we won't be as prolific, but just pointing out that if the pattern actually flips to more favorable sometime between 12/15 and 12/20, there's plenty of time to rack up pretty big numbers. It often only takes a couple events in close proximity (2008 also did this).

Late month 12/07 was a bit nicer up here though we had the obligatory Grinch storm on Christmas eve.  12/27-31 brought 3 small-medium events for 14.4" and 1/1-2/08 added 12.5" (season's biggest snowfall) for a 27" week.
If we can score some decent pack next week there's a chance the mild-up won't take it all and we can be in continuous snow cover thru at least met winter.

[Typhoon Tip]

Just my 2 cents:

nothing's changed since the observations posted two day or so ago.  The telecon's ( GEFs fwiw - ) are empirically behaving with acceptable error - looks (~) like > 80 some odd % ... which is fine for < D10.  That all means it is helping determinism to employ at this time. 

The MJO ...being south bias of the Equator, probably is less factoring over the next two weeks... ( as an aside, I still believe personally that the MJO's forcing ability on the mid latitudes is being partially absorbed by the HC shit.. but that is secondary/after consideration to what Ray and I was just discussing - )

So, all else being fair and unfair...  +AO/+NAO/-PNA   ( and it is noted, the individual members are unusually agreeing in magnitude - oy!), ...normally, that would not be the preferred converging telecon signals for winter weather enthusiasts, to put it diplomatically.    BUT, I believe this 10 days has to be adjusted due to the fact that the PV is pretty significantly geographically biased over our quatra-hemispheric scope.   That's loaded the Can shield with -20 to -30 C 850 mass roughly 2/3rds the size of the contiguous U.S., and is packing the 850 mb thickness gradient right down to 45 N ...

The immense velocities above that at 500 mb ...it's all part of the compression, too.  The D6 flat wave next week ...

First of all, that is remarkable that all operational guidance ( except the UKMET which I have not seen ) are, with this exception of meaningless noise ) essentially handling incredibly fragility with that.  The flow leading, around ..., and after it, is is like a flea between two elephant asses terrified for its lift.. It seems the slightest alteration in flow that powerful would have an equally handsome impact on embedded features, so being able to maintain that little weakling is pretty delicate handling there.  Interesting.  

But, that sensitivity works both ways...Despite the cutters ...any one of them can modulate along the polar boundary, and because the gradient is large, smaller adjustment N or S in the track streams ... Lot goin' on folks. 

 

[Chrisrotary12]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I'll sell the 8-12" n of the pike on the 00z EURO....I think that is a bit generous. Possible, but that is the upper bounds of the envelop.

Will do First Call tomorrow.

We know how these events go...modeling shows 8-12", everyone gets excited. Then they nearly always they end up as 5-8" with a crust of sleet or ZR on top and everyone is dissappointed.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

We know how these events go...modeling shows 8-12", everyone gets excited. Then they nearly always they end up as 5-8" with a crust of sleet or ZR on top and everyone is dissappointed.

Who would be disappointed with 5-8?” They shouldn’t be at all..especially being a first event. 

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

I've been guessing that Typhoon in the far west pacific is playing some roll with that.

....

I've been wondering about that too ... but, the stall in it's track...loop back and rapid decay, is not a full recurve ... I wonder how much of it's flux is really getting into westerlies compared to the idealized model.

 

As an afterthought...  Recurving west Pac TC's is typical of either about to, or in, late Phase 6 - early 2 side of the RMM/MJO wave guide. 

What is interesting, is what Ray and I were just musing.  The present MJO is indeed in those phases, but, it's not in the Northern Hemisphere's side of the Equator ( according to document/publication).   But, since this Nyotoh isn't 'technically' succeeding in recurving...  it's weird -

In any case, the reason that is stalling there and not actually succeeding in smearing up on into the westerlies, is because the WPO is out of phase.  That's related to the highly coupled circulation mode coming off of Asia from what I'm seeing -

which blows big donkey balls...because I believe until that happens, we have to bootleg winter appeal here because the other major telecon players are not really going to be in a hurry until we can get that to break-down and send the roulette wheel rotating around into a different wave # ...