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Potential Major Noreaster 10-26 through 10-27


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Big difference I see in track is the GFS has essentially a strong TS/minimal hurricane that phases; whereas the other global do not—a TD/min STS. The more vertically stacked the TC, the more delayed the phase, the further east it is likely to be. At the same time the H5 low has been trending north on all guidance. It’s coming north, but how far west? Really wouldn’t want to bank on the GFS without finding a closed low off the SE coast first. The GFS is showing rapid deepening of the coastal low today. This alone would be quite anomalous…

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