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October Discussion: Bring the Frost-Hold the Snow


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Mowed and mulched first small dead leaves as soon as the wind picked up  we covered again. Heavy rain and wind next week and it's on to mostly stick season cept for the oaks. I was watching Snowtober film and noticed how much greener the leaves were. 

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15 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z GFS witrh 6 plus for NYC here we go again

I thought this was just a few showers next week…now I’m seeing on hear that folks are talking about 5-6” of rain.  Guess I haven’t been paying much attention.  That’s a lot of rain. 

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1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

The 12z ICON might finally be enough rain for some drought stricken areas of Maine. 

Lava Rock will complain he only got 4” of rain when models were saying 6”.  That will be enough though to wash away any bits of lawn he managed to start growing. Next spring he starts with bare ground again. 

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2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Mowed and mulched first small dead leaves as soon as the wind picked up  we covered again. Heavy rain and wind next week and it's on to mostly stick season cept for the oaks. I was watching Snowtober film and noticed how much greener the leaves were. 

At least a little color is popping 

20211023_141921.jpg

20211023_143223.jpg

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This thing is also jumping around in the Euro guidance, ranging from ALB to southern NH to SE of ISP in the last 3 runs.

Haven't detailed the other guidance..

But the lack of lower tropospheric baroclinicity isn't given the low genesis an anchor point ...the models are getting chaotic about where to put it over time.

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As a winter storm enthusiast about to reentry into that season ... one should be happy that we are "setting a precedence for coastals" earlier on.

At least per may experience - seasons that do that tend to parlay toward more of it as the cold season maturates.  

That may chap the asses of La Nina -centric seasonal footed outlooks... but it doesn't have to be true every autumn into winter, either.

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It's interesting if not predictable watching that later 'big red spot' vortex start dampening out like that. 

I wondered this yesterday, if that thing might start devolving/morphing into something else.  I mean it's not atypical for a double dong mid range to start favoring one end or the other as dominant ...   Maybe that's happening here.

Also, tough to ignore the emerging PNA look to the extended.  EPS and GEFs appear in line for at least modest +PNAP, if perhaps in spite of La Nina.  Although as we've noted, La Nina's tend to front load so ...heh, maybe we're on the verge of a rare Thanks Giggedy to Xmas winter ...followed by a January thaw+ CC signal, ...followed by a big blizzard bust in early February, before the annual 83 F on Feb 15 -

yup ... that's the seasonal outlook. Forget the dissertations of peregrinated graphs and prose, and just go with that one run-on sentence. 

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