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October Discussion: Bring the Frost-Hold the Snow


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You know ...now that I take closer look at the D4 synopsis off the Euro, that has an autumn- style synoptic severe potential.  That 850 warm front is up to central NE...and the pressure contours actually suggest that the surface boundary might be displace N of the 500 mb trough amplitude ...situating SSW of NYC.  Unusual for this time of year ... but that would supply sick helicity stress through the entire SNE column and doing with destablizing mid level lapse rates - with that 500 mb core as it approaches... 

Nice -

 

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You know ...now that I take closer look at the D4 synopsis off the Euro, that has an autumn- style synoptic severe potential.  That 850 warm front is up to central NE...and the pressure contours actually suggest that the surface boundary might be displace N of the 500 mb trough amplitude ...situating SSW of NYC.  Unusual for this time of year ... but that would supply sick helicity stress through the entire SNE column and doing with destablizing mid level lapse rates - with that 500 mb core as it approaches... 

Nice -

 

Wind damage. Walt noted it for n morning post here 

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22 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I’m not sure about your area but I’m thinking next week won’t be that bad in the deep interior.  Should get a few days near 60F. 

Go out in between the raindrops.  You’re also getting soaked I think.

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wind damage. Walt noted it for n morning post here 

Walt ...  oh Walter Drag ... haha, I just saw "Drag files here to attach, or choose files..." and coincidentally that reminded me of who you meant - weird.

well I agree then

But the GFS ( fwiw - ) has the warm front pinned to the S with a cad signature - also possible.  But southern CT/RI down to NYC could be gunnin' in that GFS.  The thing is, if the warm front does get to southern VT/NH, then a 500 mb vort goes by to the south, that's a wild few hours for the interior.

Only D4 isn't the worst range. 

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Walt ...  oh Walter Drag ... haha, I just saw "Drag files here to attach, or choose files..." and coincidentally that reminded me of who you meant - weird.

well I agree then

But the GFS ( fwiw - ) has the warm front pinned to the S with a cad signature - also possible.  But southern CT/RI down to NYC could be gunnin' in that GFS.  The thing is, if the warm front does get to southern VT/NH, then a 500 mb vort goes by to the south, that's a wild few hours for the interior.

Only D4 isn't the worst range. 

Let’s pray. If we have to endure an 8-10 days straight of rain. We’d at least better get some type of damage out of the whole shebang .

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Let’s pray. If we have to endure an 8-10 days straight of rain. We’d at least better get some type of damage out of the whole shebang .

Personally ...i'd settle for excitement and entertaining events and not so much for the damage.   Ones priorities change when they maintain a mortgage heh

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25 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Any theories on why the last week of Oct has these epic storms year after year. Tomorrow is 4 years since the big time wind storm of 17.

Well chances are last 10 days of month have something. We didn’t get anything exciting last year. We had snow, but this wasn’t from a doozy of a low. 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Potentially could have hydro concerns somewhere in the northeast. Vegetation not sucking up water like it used to.

Soon as the leaves stop working, drain-off of rain pretty much stops as well.  One big rain at this time of year and most logging jobs are on pause until they can work on frozen ground.  (Either that or they're tearing up the ground and the roads.)

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40 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Let’s pray. If we have to endure an 8-10 days straight of rain. We’d at least better get some type of damage out of the whole shebang .

Have no clue where in the Sam hell you see 8 to 10 days of rain.

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