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2021-2022 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread


BlueRidgeFolklore
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8 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

RGEM is decent but we miss the heaviest moisture 

Luckily it’ll take less QPF than normal, even outside the mountains to produce a big one. 
 

edit: I’d love to see the NAM with 15:1 ratios factored in

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5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

We are still on the edge and need the NW trend to intensify tomorrow. 

Honestly, overrunning setups are a mystery to me when it comes to precip generation but do we even need a NW trend or just for things to amp up a little quicker to have precip thrown back west downstream of us?  I feel like given the orientation of the stalled front we could get ours even without screwing those to the east over, sort of like a 2017 with a flatter ENE trajectory instead of NNE. I wish I knew more about overrunning though because I don't know what to look for to see if this is even possible.

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GSP last night. Throwing a 30% chance Thursday night and a 40% Friday with 1/2" totals of snow. 

42% shot at 2"+ that is for this area. 

 

All things considered, however, uncertainty still looms large in
this forecast.  Even a cursory look at ensemble guidance indicates
considerable question over the ultimate location of the developing
surface low, and the timing of dry air arriving in the Carolinas on
the tail end of the system, which would impact the duration of any
precipitation.
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19 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I do believe I hear a fat lady warming up her voice. I’ll hang on for one more suite but I think the writing is on the wall with this one. 
 

@Hvwardyou’re going to have to give us some hope today!

Asheville did go from .7 inches of snow on the 0z Euro to 1.6 inches on the 6z. It would not take much for it to trend in our favor. 

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Waking up to 39 and breezy. I could not be more grateful since I've got to finish clearing the upper driveway and decks before the next batch of out of town guests arrive for their Ski Weekend. 

I haven't disregarded this next event and will not. As has been said repeatedly, the models likely will not resolve this sort of setup until tomorrow. I have little doubt we will see snow on snow come Friday here in the Mountains. 

20220119_090157_compress24.jpg

20220119_090204_compress53.jpg

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33 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I do believe I hear a fat lady warming up her voice. I’ll hang on for one more suite but I think the writing is on the wall with this one. 
 

@Hvwardyou’re going to have to give us some hope today!

The devil is in the details with this one.  Pull up a sounding, any sounding around WNC over the next 3 days and tell me that's not borderline snow.  Skew-T says freezing drizzle best guess estimated precipitation with a column of air completely below freezing?  Does the model not think the precipitation will push up into the dendritic growth area?  Those 6000' peaks to Asheville's SW certain could help...  Just because the precip maps and accumulation maps aren't showing the colors, doesn't mean that the atmosphere isn't ripe.  Hell the 6z GFS has a snow sounding for tomorrow morning for most of you.  The main takeaway is that the models are really struggling.  They struggled like this in Dec 2017.  That northern periphery of moisture was never really correctly modeled and finally it was assumed to be a nowcast event.  I remember the GFS and Euro showing small stripes of snow over WNC and E TN a couple days out from the event and thinking they were warning shot.  I think we are seeing something similar here, maybe on a less intense scale but today should be the day we see some type of movement in the models.  I feel like we sit in a pretty good position.

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1 minute ago, Hvward said:

The devil is in the details with this one.  Pull up a sounding, any sounding around WNC over the next 3 days and tell me that's not borderline snow.  Skew-T says freezing drizzle best guess estimated precipitation with a column of air completely below freezing?  Does the model not think the precipitation will push up into the dendritic growth area?  Those 6000' peaks to Asheville's SW certain could help...  Just because the precip maps and accumulation maps aren't showing the colors, doesn't mean that the atmosphere isn't ripe.  Hell the 6z GFS has a snow sounding for tomorrow morning for most of you.  The main takeaway is that the models are really struggling.  They struggled like this in Dec 2017.  That northern periphery of moisture was never really correctly modeled and finally it was assumed to be a nowcast event.  I remember the GFS and Euro showing small stripes of snow over WNC and E TN a couple days out from the event and thinking they were warning shot.  I think we are seeing something similar here, maybe on a less intense scale but today should be the day we see some type of movement in the models.  I feel like we sit in a pretty good position.

That’s exactly what I needed to hear and the jolt I needed this morning. Thank you sir!

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6 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I'm glad Ward feels that way because the models are trending towards nothing west of 77 and little west of 95. 

True… we’re about at that under 8 min media timeout in College basketball…. If we’re gonna make a run it better come soon, not over but we’re running out of time lol

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The devil is in the details with this one.  Pull up a sounding, any sounding around WNC over the next 3 days and tell me that's not borderline snow.  Skew-T says freezing drizzle best guess estimated precipitation with a column of air completely below freezing?  Does the model not think the precipitation will push up into the dendritic growth area?  Those 6000' peaks to Asheville's SW certain could help...  Just because the precip maps and accumulation maps aren't showing the colors, doesn't mean that the atmosphere isn't ripe.  Hell the 6z GFS has a snow sounding for tomorrow morning for most of you.  The main takeaway is that the models are really struggling.  They struggled like this in Dec 2017.  That northern periphery of moisture was never really correctly modeled and finally it was assumed to be a nowcast event.  I remember the GFS and Euro showing small stripes of snow over WNC and E TN a couple days out from the event and thinking they were warning shot.  I think we are seeing something similar here, maybe on a less intense scale but today should be the day we see some type of movement in the models.  I feel like we sit in a pretty good position.
NAM showing those precip stripes at 12z.

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

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The only reason I hate missing any snow is because there will be a pattern change and February is rising over the hill. So, hopefully we can score before that happens. I haven't given up on this one, but we need some help. Next week there is promise, so we have that to look forward to. 

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The only reason I hate missing any snow is because there will be a pattern change and February is rising over the hill. So, hopefully we can score before that happens. I haven't given up on this one, but we need some help. Next week there is promise, so we have that to look forward to. 

Same thoughts Jason!


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As good as the last system was, and the way snow has been lately, I kinda think we won't see another big snow for 2 or 3 years but I hope I'm wrong!

And joking I told my kid the same thing. Especially here I mean it’s day four And I just built a snowman. Not to say it doesn’t happen down here but it’s been a while. Of course I grew up in the 80s and it was a lot better than the last 10 years here. :-)


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