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2021-2022 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread


BlueRidgeFolklore
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1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

GFS looks on point also this morning.  I really don't see much mixing issues for the mountains at all. Not saying GSP is wrong but I just don't see it. 

Me either, short range models have burned me too much with showing increasing totals  in the past to make me put much faith in them regardless of what they say (though I believe the HRRR is what first noted what happened with the 1/3 event so there is that).  And if I get a 1/4” of ice as their map shows that little red dallop over me, I’ll eat my hat.  I’m still learning the local climo around Haywood but to me if I torch at mid levels then there is no way the higher peaks 1-2k feet above me in elevation are gonna stay all snow either.

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3 hours ago, Maggie Ace said:

Good morning folks. It's been enjoyable leading up to the storm. The WPC just updated the Surface Low Track forecast. 

lowtrack_ensembles.gif

Boom for you guys! The big boys at WPC put no stock in the quirky NAM runs. that low track is gonna be gold for the Mnts. I wouldn't fly over the cliff because of lower qpf totals in some areas. This tends to happen with models as the event draws near. Often times it's closer to the earlier higher totals. As with every big Mnt snow event the totals will vary wildly. Good luck to all of you!!!

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5 minutes ago, WxKnurd said:

Me either, short range models have burned me too much with showing increasing totals  in the past to make me put much faith in them regardless of what they say (though I believe the HRRR is what first noted what happened with the 1/3 event so there is that).  And if I get a 1/4” of ice as their map shows that little red dallop over me, I’ll eat my hat.  I’m still learning the local climo around Haywood but to me if I torch at mid levels then there is no way the higher peaks 1-2k feet above me in elevation are gonna stay all snow either.

Yeah Haywoods climo is complex from community to community or mountain to mountain but everyone in the country should get theres. Youll have the moisture coming from the south then youll have the NW flow setup after the storm pulls away.

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1 minute ago, wxduncan said:

That track good for the foothills also? @NavarreDon

That track should be great for CAD which you should do very well in but there is always a chance for mixing at your elevation.  Also no amount of reassurance is going to make things better until it actually starts. You've asked about Morganton on every storm thread. You may want to take a break from looking at the models. 

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17 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah Haywoods climo is complex from community to community or mountain to mountain but everyone in the country should get theres. Youll have the moisture coming from the south then youll have the NW flow setup after the storm pulls away.

Micro-climates are always fun.  My old place on Balsam should do great with this setup.  Should be a good county wide hit like you said.

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8 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Ya'll know that in order to cash out on the highest snow totals, you have to be able to smell the rain  :lol:  Seriously though, good luck everyone!! I hope not to be encased in ice so that I can get out and take some pictures of the winter wonderland :wub:

Absolutely! And the sleet

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Hi y'all. first of all hope everyone scores big with this one. But I also just noticed that MRX was mentioning the possibility of a blizzard warning for their side of the mts above 4000'. I couldn't imagine winds would be less over there with that 850 flow. Didn't see any mention from GSP or Blacksburg, but I may have just missed it. 

From the overnight disco:

Finally, the gusty winds in combination with snow will bring near blizzard
like conditions to the Smokies, generally above 4000 feet. It is
certainly possible a blizzard warning may be needed later, but
for now will let the WSW handle it.
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Really only the 0z NAM last night was a complete disaster, and the 6z immediately came back more in line with previous runs at least when it came to P-type durations/snow totals/etc. In the end though GSP making the safe call, no one's gonna be upset if the snow busts slightly over, and their forecast is still well within warning criteria.

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3 hours ago, Maggie Ace said:

Good morning folks. It's been enjoyable leading up to the storm. The WPC just updated the Surface Low Track forecast. 

lowtrack_ensembles.gif

6z rgem lines up well with this track.  And still has snow falling Monday morning!

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Good morning fellow winter weather (nerds) lovers! 28 degrees in Cashiers at 3500'. Got my and ready for the show! Point forecast has bumped our storm totals up a couple inches.

3-7 tonight
9-13 tomorrow
up to another 1" tomorrow night

I've never seen that before, so my excitement is at all time highs.
Hoping everyone on this board gets what they wish from this one!

I did see in GSP AFD that they said our La Nina winter is on hold for a bit. You love to see it!

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

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1 hour ago, ncjoaquin said:

I still have a point forecast of 4-8. I would take 3 and still be happy. I just want some snow after all this work, lol. Good luck to everyone. I still feel like we are going to do really well. 

Edited to add, the GFS STILL thinks we are getting hammered and also that NW flow means business.

4 to 6 inches is what I think of as ideal, I would rather not lose power and trees with more than that. I had a great time during the blizzard of 93 but I was renting back then LOL.

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From GSP... they're not buying the nam.

 

The mountains, meanwhile are on track for a mostly-snow
forecast.  The warm nose should not penetrate into the Appalachians.
Profiles here appear to remain well-saturated and sub-freezing
through most of the event
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Just now, franklin NCwx said:

From GSP...

 

The mountains, meanwhile are on track for a mostly-snow
forecast.  The warm nose should not penetrate into the Appalachians.
Profiles here appear to remain well-saturated and sub-freezing
through most of the event

There you go! Boom!

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We are live from our place here in lake Toxaway! Headed to the store this morning to get some final things and then we will be ready for the storm. It is beautiful up here. We got in very late, but that didn’t stop our little man from getting us up bright and early. 
 

It was a windy drive up to here and the driveway is pretty steep. I definitely don’t see how we will make it out Monday, but here’s hoping. Also have our fingers crossed to keep power. Looking forward to looking upstream today to see how our system looks and is performing 

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4 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

From GSP... they're not buying the nam.

 

The mountains, meanwhile are on track for a mostly-snow
forecast.  The warm nose should not penetrate into the Appalachians.
Profiles here appear to remain well-saturated and sub-freezing
through most of the event

As what I've been harping on since yesterday.  Great minds think alike lol. 

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We are live from our place here in lake Toxaway! Headed to the store this morning to get some final things and then we will be ready for the storm. It is beautiful up here. We got in very late, but that didn’t stop our little man from getting us up bright and early. 
 
It was a windy drive up to here and the driveway is pretty steep. I definitely don’t see how we will make it out Monday, but here’s hoping. Also have our fingers crossed to keep power. Looking forward to looking upstream today to see how our system looks and is performing 
Welcome neighbor! I forgot coffee at the store yesterday. Dangit! ;) Will be fetching that after I close my store at noon.

Stay safe and have a blast!

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

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5 minutes ago, LiQuiDBuD said:

Solid cirrus deck above me, this camera faces east to monitor my parking lot in case of theives. Haha.84e08b343636ba1c1d275111aa2c5788.jpg

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk
 

I was looking at this and I was like, this dude owns a plumbing supply spot and sure enough!  Love it man I hear business is good up in that area!  Just like it is everywhere else in WNC.

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