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Upstate/Eastern New York- Meteorological Fall


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3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Guys, gut thoughts on the upcoming season? I’ve seen some fairly pessimistic guidance over the last couple weeks and also some ok stuff. I’m hopeful but it’s just based on anecdotal lifetime experience. We’ve now endured three tepid winters and I feel like that cycle has run its course. 
I’m hoping on some prolonged cold and some solid LES. It would be nice to not be in the 50’s on Christmas! 
Can we avoid the dreaded SE ridge? Will November and April steal the cold? Will we only have one good month like last year? Or can pull out a freezer like early 2000’s? 
I, for one, think we are overdue for a blockbuster storm! A crippler! 
Lay down your predictions! 

I think it’s a front loaded winter based in the current state of LaNina, the already weakened PV and colder waters off Newfoundland. The caveat is the pac is still a bit hostile and may slow any real prolonged cold spells. I think we average near normal snowfall due in large part to mid November and December bring above average in snowfall and BN temps. January is a transition month and I believe February is AN temps BN snowfall 

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33 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I think it’s a front loaded winter based in the current state of LaNina, the already weakened PV and colder waters off Newfoundland. The caveat is the pac is still a bit hostile and may slow any real prolonged cold spells. I think we average near normal snowfall due in large part to mid November and December bring above average in snowfall and BN temps. January is a transition month and I believe February is AN temps BN snowfall 

Sounds good. I have ski plans in February but it’s up at Stowe, which is pretty far Northern Vermont. They do pretty well even in mild winters. Also expect to be out west at least once- either Jackson or Wasatch. Both? Lol

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It's been nothing but a monsoon here in Hannibal all morning and just had some pea sized hail come down for a couple minutes, my yard and everyone else yard look like small lakes. I can't remember a lake effect rain band hanging over us this long. It's just plain raw out today. Windy the temp is at 50 crazy. 

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32 minutes ago, Revracer800 said:

It's been nothing but a monsoon here in Hannibal all morning and just had some pea sized hail come down for a couple minutes, my yard and everyone else yard look like small lakes. I can't remember a lake effect rain band hanging over us this long. It's just plain raw out today. Windy the temp is at 50 crazy. 

Yup, just kills me....knowing how much snow this persistent band could have been....

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4 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

F4EC9B26-34F7-4F53-89A4-8C26631D34BB.jpeg

Roughly half way through meteorological fall, and this has been the warmest such stretch on record by a long shot (almost a degree above 1881). This coming on the heels of one of the hottest summers on record. Not too surprising to see Lake Erie water temperatures setting daily record highs. Other recent warm falls on the top ten list include 2007, 2016, 2017, and 2018. It probably doesn't "feel" as warm as it actually is, because of how many recent years show up. 4 of the top 8 warmest early fall periods have occurred in the last six years.

image.png.781a80bf27366b656b450e43c68851d6.png

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Similar conditions in Syracuse and Erie (2nd warmest starts to fall). Erie is 0.1 degrees below 1881, and Syracuse is 0.2 degrees below 1931. Records don't extend back into the 1800s there, so no data for 1881. It looks like 1881 and 1931 had early autumns with similar warmth to this one.

Syracuse

image.png.2f65178c50580f4795d105a1908f5c67.png

Erie

image.png.0f6cb7636c1a1e24cc4b3d8978eb1122.png

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An upper level trough will move across the region late in the work
week and persist through next weekend. Showers will spread across
western and north central NY ahead of a cold front Thursday-Friday.
The associated area of low pressure will be stretched along the cold
front to the north creating an area of increased convergence near
our region. A shortwave trough and exiting upper level jet will
create strong synoptic forcing which increases the chance for a
widespread, soaking rain through Friday.

Cold air will rush into the region Friday night into Saturday. Lake
effect rain showers will increase in coverage with 850mb
temperatures dropping to at least -2C. Some guidance depicts it may
be colder which could result in some snowflakes mixing in across the
higher terrain Saturday night-Sunday.

Temperatures start off in the low to mid 60s Thursday. They will
take a dive Friday and into the weekend with highs in the low 50s.
Lows will likely reach the 30s across the higher terrain beginning
Friday night.
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1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

You finally tired of this ridiculous southern-like October?

I'm flying to Amsterdam tomorrow and then Berlin on the weekend.  Temps look chilly compared to what we've had the past 2 months.  At least today and tomorrow will acclimatize me a bit to cooler weather.

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1 hour ago, winter_rules said:

I was actually looking forward to it (first time ever?) to cycle the air and start drying things out.  We have a few things in the house that have swollen worse than any of the past 5 years of living here! 

Same thing here.  One bathroom door began sticking a bit, actually during Summer. Never saw that in past 15 years in this house. I started looking for door/hinge misalignment but everything looks tight.  Weird.

 

Another downpour from the lake just started.  With small graupel mixed in....A month later and this event would be Snowvemberish...

This could be my first frozen precip of season...

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51 minutes ago, Flying MXZ said:

Turned mine back on this morning too.  59° in the house with a forecast high of 47°, I figured it was time.

I turned my heat on yesterday. It was about 65 and the house had that damp feeling.  My wife had her Covid booster Saturday and she was complaining about being cold so I caved. I looked at the radar about an hour ago and thought we might be getting a break from the rain but the rain that was north of here has dropped south. So sick of this, it’s like Chinese water torture. My yard is like the Cicero swamp. 

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