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Upstate/Eastern New York- Meteorological Fall


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11 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

So. If you drive down transit heading north towards Lockport, that’s where the ridge at eastern hills is. The Sheridan dr underpass is the ridge to “transit Valley”. This COULD be one of the reasons why my area and north to UB are colder than KBUF…however it doesn’t make sense to the east towards Lancaster. That area was almost 9 degrees colder this am.

Temp graph from this morning.  Again not a huge variance but just such a consistent one.  Either ALL of these surrounding PWS are reading 2.0-3.5 degrees colder all at the same times OR there is an issue with just the one KBUF sensor reading too warm.  Isolated to the overnight hours and seems to show the largest variance between the hours of 12am - 5am.     1887559312_1020temps.png.0a7c657de51585c4e7a05119c8d2fadd.png

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Finally going to feel like it should this time of year, starting Friday..Or even a little below..

 

Could see current forecast min
temps in the mid-upper 30s western NY to around 30 east of Lake
Ontario possibly going lower if lake effect clouds and showers are
not as prevalent. If so, we may need some frost or freeze headlines
on what will be the final day of our program for the Fall.

 

Friday
A slight chance of showers before 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 54. Northwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40.
Saturday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 52.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38.
Sunday
A chance of showers after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 51. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Sunday Night
A chance of showers before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday
Partly sunny, with a high near 52.
Monday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday
A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 53. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
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32 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

We have one to our NW that's expected to move through tomorrow evening..Seems like the models are missing whatever is going on lol

91fndfd_init_2021102012.gif

WUNIDS_map - 2021-10-20T141133.401.gif

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_1.png

Just as surprised as the models being wrong as I am that the Keebler elves don’t make the cookies, Rudolph really not having a red nose and Tug Hill being an actual snow jinx

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17 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Mostly Sunny my ass.  Morning was perfect but that quick shower is turning into a bit of a dreary afternoon.  Got the breezy part right!

 

And when I see everyone talking about these outlooks weeks and months down the road… can’t even make today’s call accurate.

DA6B593F-65D1-4B86-99DC-118B5C4349F2.jpeg

Yeah I would say today was a rare completely blown forecast.  I did not expect rain at all, and the models didn't really show it either.  Tough one for the NWS.  

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Looking back at my weather journal for this day in recent years and stumbled across this odd entry.  I have a vague recollection of this, but damn...what an odd one.

"A EF0 Tornado touched down in West Seneca in the middle of heavy graupel and lake effect rain event.  A strong front dropped south igniting already strong lake effect rain.  Somehow a tornado formed in this unusual airmass causing minor damage.  I think it was more of a hybrid waterspout, and would like to see the radar leading up to this event.  Regardless, a cool and very rare event.  Also (for future reading), there is a documented Tornado in a snow event on the Eastern end of Lake Ontario in Canada. “A Unique Cold-Season Supercell Produces an EF1 'Snownado”

 

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35 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Looking back at my weather journal for this day in recent years and stumbled across this odd entry.  I have a vague recollection of this, but damn...what an odd one.

"A EF0 Tornado touched down in West Seneca in the middle of heavy graupel and lake effect rain event.  A strong front dropped south igniting already strong lake effect rain.  Somehow a tornado formed in this unusual airmass causing minor damage.  I think it was more of a hybrid waterspout, and would like to see the radar leading up to this event.  Regardless, a cool and very rare event.  Also (for future reading), there is a documented Tornado in a snow event on the Eastern end of Lake Ontario in Canada. “A Unique Cold-Season Supercell Produces an EF1 'Snownado”

 

Now I know both Sharknados and Snownados are real things. 

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Area of light showers associated with an incoming minor upper
impulse and within weak warm air advection just south of a
surface boundary stalled to the north of the U.S./Canadian
border. Hi-res guidance having a difficult time picking up on
this activity early in the day, but has improved of late
indicating this scattered activity will push through the area
from west to east through the rest of the afternoon. A few
localized spots could pick up a few hundredths, but likely no
more than that.

This activity should diminish this evening as the upper impulse
passes with a period of mainly dry weather into the overnight
night, although a few showers are possible associated with
continued weak warm advection.
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2 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

Looking back at my weather journal for this day in recent years and stumbled across this odd entry.  I have a vague recollection of this, but damn...what an odd one.

"A EF0 Tornado touched down in West Seneca in the middle of heavy graupel and lake effect rain event.  A strong front dropped south igniting already strong lake effect rain.  Somehow a tornado formed in this unusual airmass causing minor damage.  I think it was more of a hybrid waterspout, and would like to see the radar leading up to this event.  Regardless, a cool and very rare event.  Also (for future reading), there is a documented Tornado in a snow event on the Eastern end of Lake Ontario in Canada. “A Unique Cold-Season Supercell Produces an EF1 'Snownado”

 

It was a waterspout prior to that over Lake Erie and then briefly touched back down over West Seneca.  If it came down in a forest or field it probably would have went unnoticed but instead it ripped the roof off that apartment building.  Second loop on the radar zooms in pretty close.

 

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20 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

 

Forecasted high for tomorrow is 70. I'm still going with my 74 to 75 degree call. We'll hit 70 by 11:30 am. 

I get an A+ for today. I have the freakin Sizzlecuse down. We indeed were 70 by 11:30am AND the temp somehow jumped a couple degrees, as it always does, to 74 degrees before it fell right back two degrees. lol

It's so predictable.

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3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It may be a rough winter. This is exactly what happened in 2011-2012. Lets hope it doesn't last through winter, it rarely does.

 

Why does this keep happening? It's like, no matter what indices there are, the Pacific sucks anymore for real, lasting winter in the eastern half of the U.S. It's becoming a yearly setup in the Pacific.

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1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said:

Why does this keep happening? It's like, no matter what indices there are, the Pacific sucks anymore for real, lasting winter in the eastern half of the U.S. It's becoming a yearly setup in the Pacific.

I'm not sure, but the cold pool of water in the gulf of alaska is the last thing you ever want to see right before winter starts.

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25 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah that time period is pretty locked in for warmth I think. Its on all ENS guidance and close enough for somewhat good accuracy

cfs-avg_z500aMean_us_2.png

Im not that concerned yet... 

For you guys though that need and feed off LES Id be getting a bit nervous. All the GTA needs is a few decent 6-10" snowstorms and we fly past worst case scenario. Most of the GTA only averages 40-50" a year so thats why we have a much lower ceiling for what can be called a good winter. 

Ideally Id love for winter to play out with early season snowstorms from Mid November-Early December the type that brings first real cold of the season and a wet snow of 4-6", decent cold and one big December storm of 8-12" a week before Christmas. 

Cold New Years and another decent storm to start January and then torch and early spring with little to no snow in March

I would give a winter like that an A+ haha 

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22 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Just perusing the forum from January 2017 and there was much discussion about the awfulness of that winter season (and several consecutive winters before) as well. The second half of winter got better, obviously...These long snow-droughts each winter with huge warm ridges seem pretty common.

Yeah long range forecasting isnt that accurate, you never know.

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