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Upstate/Eastern New York- Meteorological Fall


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1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

Whoop, there it is. Temperature forecast for Wednesday officially in the 70s. Been watching it go up and up each day...I knew it was coming. By the time Wednesday gets here, it'll hit 74-75 degrees here. Doesn't matter about sun angle... latitude.... etc...

Yeah, looks like the return of the SE ridge, at least for a few days , until the next cold front sweeps through, looking chilly by weeks end, low 50s and upper 30s..

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_9 (1).png

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50 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Same thing here.  One bathroom door began sticking a bit, actually during Summer. Never saw that in past 15 years in this house. I started looking for door/hinge misalignment but everything looks tight.  Weird.

 

Another downpour from the lake just started.  With small graupel mixed in....A month later and this event would be Snowvemberish...

This could be my first frozen precip of season...

I thought it was just me. My bedroom door had been shutting hard the last few weeks and the door jamb looked all out of sorts especially the bottom . I ended up reshiming it and it seems to straighten out yesterday.

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22 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

Guys, gut thoughts on the upcoming season? I’ve seen some fairly pessimistic guidance over the last couple weeks and also some ok stuff. I’m hopeful but it’s just based on anecdotal lifetime experience. We’ve now endured three tepid winters and I feel like that cycle has run its course. 
I’m hoping on some prolonged cold and some solid LES. It would be nice to not be in the 50’s on Christmas! 
Can we avoid the dreaded SE ridge? Will November and April steal the cold? Will we only have one good month like last year? Or can pull out a freezer like early 2000’s? 
I, for one, think we are overdue for a blockbuster storm! A crippler! 
Lay down your predictions! 

My thoughts are we haven't had 3 years of below average snowfall in Buffalo since the 80s. Syracuse hasn't had 4 below average snowfall years in decades. The top analogs all look okay, once again the Pacific is going to control our weather. The best thing going for us is a weak polar vortex. Also temperature patterns go in 3-4 month cycles on average. October likely ends as the warmest October on record. September finished at +3.1, August at +5.3. We likely get at least one below average month between Nov-March, most likely 2.

In that case I see us finishing 5-10% above average snowfall with slightly above average temps. With a SE ridge, our region should feature many chances at synoptic events. I think farther NW than last years events. I think winter starts in Mid Nov and we see an earlier end to winter than the last few seasons. I think we get a warmer March/April then average. Bookmark this post to show me how wrong I was at the end of winter. 

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2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Whoop, there it is. Temperature forecast for Wednesday officially in the 70s. Been watching it go up and up each day...I knew it was coming. By the time Wednesday gets here, it'll hit 74-75 degrees here. Doesn't matter about sun angle... latitude.... etc...

Sizzle Sizzle...

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25 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Not too far out either. That's a lake effect signal if I've ever seen one. Let's hope its 2nd half of November. Lots of temp issues for the first 2 weeks. 

There are some very good signals and astonishingly good agreement on the global models that November looks active and colder later in the month. Seeing the CFS show the only month above avg being December was also surprising. We might have a good chance at a decent winter this year.

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4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

There are some very good signals and astonishingly good agreement on the global models that November looks active and colder later in the month. Seeing the CFS show the only month above avg being December was also surprising. We might have a good chance at a decent winter this year.

The only month above average is January. That is our coldest month so even slightly above equates to snow in January. 

This is for Dec

cfs-mon_01_z500a_us_2.png

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1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

Always tough to get those temps down with that toasty lake lol

This is the coldest frame on the euro..

Monday and Tuesday have a shot at upper 30s as well..

We are now at the point where we should expect that on a nightly basis..

sfct.us_ne - 2021-10-18T112150.235.png

Screenshot_20211018-112303.png

The lake absolutely does no good for us during the summer in keeping us cooler down here, but it keeps us warmer during the cool seasons. Go figure. At least it benefits us with lake effect snowfall.

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First came the panic commentary about the "coming bitter cold winter". Then, almost like magic, some firms and agencies dedicated to forecasting, proclaimed "no winter expected". Now you and I have been through this routine in previous autumns. As always, when presented with two extremes, the proper course is somewhere in the middle. The upcoming NDJFM period will prove to be no different. I think we should look at the most important players in the low sun period arena.

 

We can start with the La Nina episode. The ENSO signature is very real, destined like last winter to reach a moderate-to-strong rating (I will say -1.5 deg C differential in sector 3.4). The cooling is not making it to the westernmost area of the Pacific Ocean, which means that tropical cyclone production may remain in play to the right of the Orient during much of November. With percolations of the Madden-Julian Oscillation to the left of the International Dateline, there will be chances for ridge formation in Alaska and northwestern Canada. But mostly in a transient manner.

We again see impressive subtropical jet stream formation, often depressed to very low latitudes into northwestern Mexico, Texas and Florida. That was evident last year, and the equatorial Pacific Ocean is similar to 2020 and can be used as an analog. Repeated reformation of both the Gulf Of Alaska Low, in ever-deeper intensities and cold pooling, and teh recent emergence of mA vortices over the Grand Banks/Flemish Cap are also a cold teleconnection for the eastren two-thirds of the continent. In a La Nina, the pools of cold air and vorticity come across the Pacific Northwest into the Prairie Provinces or Upper Midwest and Great Lakes into the St. Lawrence Valley. So a good deal of the U.S., above Interstate 70 and to the left of the Appalachian Mountains, should be turning colder this November.

The x-factor here: will we see a late October storm that draws moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea, and targets the Eastern Seaboard? It could happen, even if that is not apparent on any of the computer schemes. Since another vortex is likely to form over Newfoundland, energy from the polar westerlies might link or phase with a tropical or subtropical impulse. If that happens, a somewhat more meaningful cold intrusion into the eastern U.S. may occur by the second week of November.

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The IRI/CPC plume average of forecasts for the Niño-3.4 SST index favors La Niña to continue through the fall and winter 2021-22 [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus also anticipates La Niña to continue through the winter, with ENSO-neutral predicted to return during March-May 2022. Because of the recent oceanic cooling and coupling to the atmosphere, forecasters now anticipate a 57% chance of one season (November-January) reaching -1.0°C or less in the Niño-3.4 index. Thus, at its peak, a moderate-strength La Niña is favored. In summary, La Niña conditions have developed and are expected to continue with an 87% chance of La Niña in December 2021- February 2022 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).

La Niña is anticipated to affect temperature and precipitation across the United States during the upcoming months (the 3-month seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks will be updated on Thurs. October 21st).

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