TugHillMatt Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah long range forecasting isnt that accurate, you never know. Interesting thing...reading the forum for a storm that had the "perfect track" for CNY at the end of January and there were boundary layer issues with temps....supposed to get 4 to 10 inches of snow and everybody ended up with junk. As you've said, climate change is real. What used to be "enough cold" for snow from synoptic systems just doesn't exist anymore. We need an extra cold air supply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 21, 2021 Author Share Posted October 21, 2021 Winter in the adk 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 Ah, snow. And there was peace across the land. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 21, 2021 Author Share Posted October 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Ah, snow. And there was peace across the land. It's a different world up there. Winter is Late Sep until early June lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 Checking temperature obs this morning. I just can't believe how many times our temperatures have been equivalent or warmer than cities across the deep south this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 Rain looks to be ahead of schedule. Should be here In WNY by 1pm. Most models are way behind in the late afternoon early ev…at least per WIVB this morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 21, 2021 Author Share Posted October 21, 2021 How is the northwest always colder then normal now? That’s like 5 straight years… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 I guess take the good with the bad? Lol Hopefully+anomalies aren't to high lol We can afford some just not a lot.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 19 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: How is the northwest always colder then normal now? That’s like 5 straight years… Its also only in the “leaning above” category which means plenty of cold shots, line it up right with the moisture and boom… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 Man o’ man. These LR’s sure have been depressing the last few days. That SE ridge is starting to feel permanent. Puke 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 CF should move through sometime mid afternoon in WNY and later this evening in CNY.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 21, 2021 Author Share Posted October 21, 2021 That’s a pretty warm map. I would think +2-5 for winter if that map come to fruition. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 How can you tell that from a probability map? Lol Its a 40-50% chance of above average, that's not that high, you have a 50%+ chance of something else aka Avg-below.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: Man o’ man. These LR’s sure have been depressing the last few days. That SE ridge is starting to feel permanent. Puke I've been obsessed with golf this summer, so I'm trying to make lemonade out of this scenario. If this winter is going to suck, I'll trade in my snowboard for my clubs and golf well into January, if not straight through the winter. I know friends who did that in the epically bad winter of 2011-2012. Even last year I had friends golf in every month except February. You just gotta roll with the weather and make the most of it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 21, 2021 Author Share Posted October 21, 2021 59 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: How can you tell that from a probability map? Lol Its a 40-50% chance of above average, that's not that high, you have a 50%+ chance of something else aka Avg-below.. I hope you’re right. But that map features a consistent negative pna pattern. Looks like a bad pacific to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 Sun popped out and temp soared 5 degrees and in the mid 70s...again....in the tropics of Upstate NY. If the sun comes out here, the temp ALWAYS overperforms that 4 to 5 degrees over forecast. On par with southeast NY again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 Seems like the "cool down" will not be accompanied by much wind, so maybe we can start to see a bit more Fall Color and keep it on the trees more over the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 No above average next 2 weeks. That's what it's showing, there's no way we will be seeing 2011-2012 for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 Regional radars showing initial round of showers and embedded thunder just entering far western New York this afternoon. Instability and shear across the area at this stage of the day very limited. Shear and instability should get better as we move into the late afternoon and early evening ahead of the surface cold front currently across far eastern Michigan and western Ohio. The expectation is that a somewhat organized line of convection will enter far western New York around 6/7 pm then translate eastward across the area. Convection likely exiting eastern areas around midnight or so. This timing is suggested by the latest 16/17z runs of the HRRR. We will need to monitor this convection as it moves across the area with the potential for some stronger wind gusts. Behind the front, notably cooler air and some gustier surface winds of 25 to 35 mph will develop tonight. Incoming cooler air aloft could generate a minor lake/upslope response east of the lakes. Friday continues to look like a much cooler day with temperatures just getting into the 50s, with higher terrain staying in the 40s. Plenty of cloud cover with some spotty northwest flow lake showers possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 21, 2021 Author Share Posted October 21, 2021 Long range is all over the place, some cold signals out there. Many calling for pattern change around mid Nov. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 2 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: I've been obsessed with golf this summer, so I'm trying to make lemonade out of this scenario. If this winter is going to suck, I'll trade in my snowboard for my clubs and golf well into January, if not straight through the winter. I know friends who did that in the epically bad winter of 2011-2012. Even last year I had friends golf in every month except February. You just gotta roll with the weather and make the most of it. My dad and I golfed every month that year. We did it simply to say we did; the golf wasn’t great in January or February. Now that he has dementia and can no longer golf I’m glad we did it. Great memory if nothing else. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 Here comes the rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 Surface analysis as of 5 pm.. Front is on the door step or currently going through WNY.. Earlier I posted the front on the doorstep at 18z or 2 pm lol Front must of slowed or something.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 21, 2021 Author Share Posted October 21, 2021 Tog sw of pitts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 This is normal for late October right? That line has had back to back tornado warnings for hours now! And SPC carried a 0% tornado risk for those storms for the first half of the day… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 22, 2021 Author Share Posted October 22, 2021 17 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: This is normal for late October right? That line has had back to back tornado warnings for hours now! And SPC carried a 0% tornado risk for those storms for the first half of the day… pretty crazy. the rotation in the CC drop I posted above was definitely a TOG too. We've picked up a crapload of rain today, has to be well over an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 22, 2021 Author Share Posted October 22, 2021 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Didn't realize we have the same weather night after night 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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