Upstate/Eastern New York- Meteorological Fall

[BuffaloWeather]

59 minutes ago, cny rider said:

I've been in the Adirondacks during snowstorms, and I've been on the Tug during storms.

The Dacks don't really scare me.

But I have felt a real visceral fear during heavy lake effect on the tug, especially crossing open areas with the wind howling.

 

Have you been up in the high peaks during a snowstorm? Wind speeds above 4K feet on open summits can be well over 100 mph with whiteout conditions. The strongest winds I’ve ever felt were on top of a high peak in February of 2019, had to be 90 mph. You’ll never see snowfall rates in the adk like you’ll see in a strong band off the tug but temps are insanely cold at the summits, and wind speeds are insane. The scariest part is getting stuck up there in a bad storm, many times 7-8 mile walk back to the car. 

[CNY_WX]

35 degrees at 9:30. Could be looking at the first freezing temperature of the season overnight. 

[TugHillMatt]

15 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

35 degrees at 9:30. Could be looking at the first freezing temperature of the season overnight. 

First time of the season in the 30s. 37 here. I think the clouds moving in overnight may hamper any chance of a freeze. Although, temps did fall rapidly this evening.

[wolfie09]

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Overnight low temperatures between 33 to 38 degrees will
  result in areas of frost formation.

* WHERE...Yates, Seneca, Southern Cayuga and Onondaga counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if
  left uncovered.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures are forecast to quickly fall
  into the 30s later this evening. Temperatures may hold steady or
  slowly rise toward daybreak as clouds move in.

[TugHillMatt]

5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Overnight low temperatures between 33 to 38 degrees will
  result in areas of frost formation.

* WHERE...Yates, Seneca, Southern Cayuga and Onondaga counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if
  left uncovered.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures are forecast to quickly fall
  into the 30s later this evening. Temperatures may hold steady or
  slowly rise toward daybreak as clouds move in.

I see it's near 50 degrees along the Lake Ontario shoreline, especially in the Oswego/Fair Haven area.

[wolfie09]

Yeah cloud cover and NW flow off the warm lake..Still low -mid 40s east of Ontario with clouds..

Actually not much of a wind tonight, just mostly cloudy..

Tonight 850MB temps will continue to drop to the -2C to -4C range.
Despite the cold airmass, the lake response will be muted by dry air
and subsidence in the mid levels. Boundary layer flow will become
very weak tonight, allowing land breeze circulations to become
dominant. This will force bands of lake effect rain showers to
primarily reside over the lakes with very little inland penetration.
A few showers may clip the Lake Erie shore southwest of Buffalo at
times tonight. A few more showers may clip the Lake Ontario shore
from the Monroe County over to Oswego County late tonight and
Saturday morning. Otherwise the rest of the area will be mainly dry
tonight. Low temperatures will drop to upper 30s/near 40 across the
lake plains and mid 30s across the Southern Tier and North Country.
Increasing cloud cover across western New York and eventually
central New York should keep frost potential to a minimum.

[Thinksnow18]

3 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

GFS still advertising some fantasy goodies for the higher elevations, going to take a lot to overcome that toasty lake Imby..lol

Euro Hi-res also shows at the very end of its run what appears to be an eastern cold dump. Could be looking at our first flakes first week of November.

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

I just don't get it...  screenshot from 1003pm.  KBUF update on site at 1002pm and all other stations reported between 955 and 1002pm, so data is live time within 7 minutes of any other station.  Yet again once the sun goes down the KBUF site is staying 1.5-3.5 degrees warmers that its closest surrounding stations.  Somethings just not right about it.  Even taking into account the micro climate with that "ridge" the airport sits on 266 and 190 would be control stations as they are both roughly 1-1.25 miles from the KBUF ASOS site on similar terrain.  Only difference is these temps are in a residential setting vs an open field in the middle of an airport.  Even these two sites will run several degrees colder at some point of the night than KBUF.           

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

The magic 8 ball says watch Nov 2 - Nov 5.  

[BuffaloWeather]

19 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

The magic 8 ball says watch Nov 2 - Nov 5.  

You need a lot to go right in early November to get LES in the lower elevations but definitely some signals there.

[CNY_WX]

Struggled to lose another degree in the last 2 hours, currently at 34. There’s a few clouds overhead but Jupiter still shines brightly in the southwestern sky. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Our first snowflakes coming during this week I think.

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Average high/low at Buffalo for Nov 1st is 53/38, by Nov 30th its 41/29. Need pretty big departures in beginning of month.

[BuffaloWeather]

 

[BuffaloWeather]

That's a strong lake effect rain event first week of November.

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Actually turns to snow at end of run.

 

[BuffaloWeather]

First weenie of the season

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Actually turns to snow at end of run.

 

stayed up to watch that play out seeing it wind up the way it did.  somethings coming in that time frame.  

[Buffalo Bumble]

5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Have you been up in the high peaks during a snowstorm? Wind speeds above 4K feet on open summits can be well over 100 mph with whiteout conditions. The strongest winds I’ve ever felt were on top of a high peak in February of 2019, had to be 90 mph. You’ll never see snowfall rates in the adk like you’ll see in a strong band off the tug but temps are insanely cold at the summits, and wind speeds are insane. The scariest part is getting stuck up there in a bad storm, many times 7-8 mile walk back to the car. 

I did a solo hike of Wright Peak about 5 years ago in mid February. Not smart…Wasn’t a particularly stormy day. But once above tree line winds were over 75 mph with near zero visibility. Got disoriented and left my backpack near a cairn in bid to make the summit (hiked so far to get there how could I turn back?). Dumb. Made it down but looking back did a lot of things wrong and could have really gone sideways. Entirely different world in the High Peaks in wintertime. 

[TugHillMatt]

First official frost of the season here. Just went out to the dumpster to throw out garbage and scope things out. Pretty thick frost on cars and rooftops. I live at the top of a hill too, so it may be even heavier at the bottom.

 

[Syrmax]

3 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

First official frost of the season here. Just went out to the dumpster to throw out garbage and scope things out. Pretty thick frost on cars and rooftops. I live at the top of a hill too, so it may be even heavier at the bottom.

 

No Sizzle here in Amsterdam. Actually in Brugge Belgium now, which incredibly nice medieval city. They made a movie here circa 2008, "In Bruges."  Good flick.  Weather has been very changeable and chilly. Locals said Summer was mostly crappy. No Amstersizzle for them.

[Thinksnow18]

5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Actually turns to snow at end of run.

 

I mean it’s about 3 weeks after he infamous October surprise so truthfully this could have legs, especially if it’s over night

[TugHillMatt]

2 hours ago, Syrmax said:

No Sizzle here in Amsterdam. Actually in Brugge Belgium now, which incredibly nice medieval city. They made a movie here circa 2008, "In Bruges."  Good flick.  Weather has been very changeable and chilly. Locals said Summer was mostly crappy. No Amstersizzle for them.

You're hilarious. Question: Is it normal for men to cut off their penises and throw them in urinals there in Amsternosizzle? Asking for a friend...

[cny rider]

11 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Have you been up in the high peaks during a snowstorm? Wind speeds above 4K feet on open summits can be well over 100 mph with whiteout conditions. The strongest winds I’ve ever felt were on top of a high peak in February of 2019, had to be 90 mph. You’ll never see snowfall rates in the adk like you’ll see in a strong band off the tug but temps are insanely cold at the summits, and wind speeds are insane. The scariest part is getting stuck up there in a bad storm, many times 7-8 mile walk back to the car. 

We have avoided being that high during storms.

Tug just feels so exposed to me during high intensity LE events.

 

[CNY_WX]

34 at 10 PM and we didn’t even end up with frost here in Brewerton. Clouds moved in overnight and the temperature was up to 37 by midnight. In the low 40s  this morning. Somebody must have left a door open in Sizzlecuse and some of the heat escaped. 

[BuffaloWeather]

7 hours ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

I did a solo hike of Wright Peak about 5 years ago in mid February. Not smart…Wasn’t a particularly stormy day. But once above tree line winds were over 75 mph with near zero visibility. Got disoriented and left my backpack near a cairn in bid to make the summit (hiked so far to get there how could I turn back?). Dumb. Made it down but looking back did a lot of things wrong and could have really gone sideways. Entirely different world in the High Peaks in wintertime. 

Wrights one of the windiest high peaks, the exposed top with no trees feature the highest wind speeds. I was on Cascade in winter and had to hold onto the rock as I would literally blow away if I didn't secure myself. Most insane winds I've ever felt. 

[lakeeffectkid383]

1 hour ago, cny rider said:

We have avoided being that high during storms.

Tug just feels so exposed to me during high intensity LE events.

 

I’ve chased on the tug a couple times and it’s truly frightening when your in 4-6”/hr + rates with how truly desolate it is up there. Also so wide open you really do feel exposed as you said. Lots of spots that don’t even have cell service so if you go off the road all I can say is you better have a lot of gas left in your tank and good luck. I had a bad experience chasing up there in the early 2010s (don’t remember the year). I went off the road during heavy rates and crashed into a Boulder and totaled my car. I was bruised up good and fractured my right  arm but was otherwise lucky. Somehow even with as few cars as their were up there I was somehow followed by an electrical company truck which was nice enough to have seen me go off the road and pulled me out. My car was very badly damaged but I managed to make it to Pulaski before the vehicle died. Was a very humbling experience to say the least. It is no joke up there. 

[Flying MXZ]

29.0 here this morning. Keep it dry through Sunday evening so we can get our last baseball game in, then bring on winter!

[Revracer800]

19 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

I’ve chased on the tug a couple times and it’s truly frightening when your in 4-6”/hr + rates with how truly desolate it is up there. Also so wide open you really do feel exposed as you said. Lots of spots that don’t even have cell service so if you go off the road all I can say is you better have a lot of gas left in your tank and good luck. I had a bad experience chasing up there in the early 2010s (don’t remember the year). I went off the road during heavy rates and crashed into a Boulder and totaled my car. I was bruised up good and fractured my right  arm but was otherwise lucky. Somehow even with as few cars as their were up there I was somehow followed by an electrical company truck which was nice enough to have seen me go off the road and pulled me out. My car was very badly damaged but I managed to make it to Pulaski before the vehicle died. Was a very humbling experience to say the least. It is no joke up there. 

Try riding snowmobile on the Tug during a big lake effect storm. Done it many times and no ides how the group made it back but we did lol. I remember one times a few year back couldn't see the snowmobile 5 ft in front of me circling around in a field trying to figure out where the damn trail was haha. It's insane up there during lake effect storms. 

[BuffaloWeather]

You have to use GPS locators in both locations. I was talking to a guy who had finished his 46 in the late 1990s and he told me he got stuck up on Mt Marcy for 2 days, thought he wasn't going to make it. Ever since that day he prepped his bag with extra supplies for winter hikes. My winter pack is like 10 lbs heavier than my summer pack.