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Upstate/Eastern New York- Meteorological Fall


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First snowflakes 7 weeks away :lol:

BUFFALO

AVERAGE First Flake Oct 24
First Measurable (0.1" or more) Nov 8
First Inch Nov 18
 

EARLIEST EVER

First Flake Sep 20, 1956
First Measurable (0.1" or more) Oct 6, 1991
First Inch Oct 10, 1906
 
LATEST EVER First Flake Nov 22, 1946 & 1985
First Measurable (0.1" or more) Dec 18, 2015
First Inch Jan 2, 1932

ROCHESTER

AVERAGE First Flake Oct 23
First Measurable (0.1" or more) Nov 8
First Inch Nov 20
 

EARLIEST EVER

First Flake Sep 20, 1956
First Measurable (0.1" or more) Oct 9, 1925
First Inch Oct 11, 1906
 
LATEST EVER First Flake Nov 20, 1918
First Measurable (0.1" or more) Dec 10, 1948
First Inch Dec 28, 2015
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Monday through Wednesday of next week the base of the longwave
trough will remain centered on the Great Lakes, with several
shortwaves crossing our region. This will support a chance of
showers each day, and possibly a few isolated thunderstorms. In
addition, cyclonic westerly flow and relatively cool temperatures
aloft may support a chance of lake effect rain showers east of the
lakes at times, with the GFS and Canadian GEM most supportive of
this on Monday and Tuesday. A sign of things to come as we head
deeper into the unstable lake season.
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2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:
Monday through Wednesday of next week the base of the longwave
trough will remain centered on the Great Lakes, with several
shortwaves crossing our region. This will support a chance of
showers each day, and possibly a few isolated thunderstorms. In
addition, cyclonic westerly flow and relatively cool temperatures
aloft may support a chance of lake effect rain showers east of the
lakes at times, with the GFS and Canadian GEM most supportive of
this on Monday and Tuesday. A sign of things to come as we head
deeper into the unstable lake season.

Waterspout season is upon us. 

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2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Can't believe its Sep. 1st already. Ready for some Bills games, pumpkin spiced latees, and Oktoberfest beers! 

Looks like Sep has a chance to be a below average month based on the first 10 days

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability

 

 

1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:
Monday through Wednesday of next week the base of the longwave
trough will remain centered on the Great Lakes, with several
shortwaves crossing our region. This will support a chance of
showers each day, and possibly a few isolated thunderstorms. In
addition, cyclonic westerly flow and relatively cool temperatures
aloft may support a chance of lake effect rain showers east of the
lakes at times, with the GFS and Canadian GEM most supportive of
this on Monday and Tuesday. A sign of things to come as we head
deeper into the unstable lake season.

That's the spirit! MY SEASON(s) are coming! Wooooo hooooo!!!! 

Bring on the fall colors, talk of snowflakes, lake effect, crisp and breathable mornings.......OH, HOW I LOVE FALL!!!!

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1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:
Monday through Wednesday of next week the base of the longwave
trough will remain centered on the Great Lakes, with several
shortwaves crossing our region. This will support a chance of
showers each day, and possibly a few isolated thunderstorms. In
addition, cyclonic westerly flow and relatively cool temperatures
aloft may support a chance of lake effect rain showers east of the
lakes at times, with the GFS and Canadian GEM most supportive of
this on Monday and Tuesday. A sign of things to come as we head
deeper into the unstable lake season.

Incredible how fast it can flip here. A few days ago I was paddle boarding in Lake Erie with temps near 90 and lake temp in the upper 70’s. Now lake effect rain is in the forecast. 

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23 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Incredible how fast it can flip here. A few days ago I was paddle boarding in Lake Erie with temps near 90 and lake temp in the upper 70’s. Now lake effect rain is in the forecast. 

It's even crazier once you get into November. 72 degree day and sunshine followed by feet of snow and in the 20s. 

Nov 2014 was 68/50 (high/low temps) and sunshine on Nov 11th, and on Nov 18th it was 24/16 with feet of snow. 

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A couple confirmed tornadoes in MD due to the remnants of Ida..

17503 W WICOMICOCHARLESMD38427693LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED TORNADO TOUCHDOWN NEAR ALLENS FRESH MOVING TOWARDS DENTSVILLE. NO DAMAGE REPORTED YET TO THE COUNTY. (LWX)

1816ANNAPOLISANNE ARUNDELMD38977650COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS TREES AND WIRES DOWN ... AND DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS THROUGHOUT THE RIVA ... WOODLAND BEACH ... AND ANNAPOLIS AREA. (LWX)

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Yeah not sure I've ever seen a tornado emergency in NJ..

..TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR Bristol Croydon and Burlington...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Central Mercer County in central New Jersey...
  Northwestern Burlington County in southern New Jersey...
  Southeastern Bucks County in southeastern Pennsylvania...

* Until 730 PM EDT.

* At 702 PM EDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was
  observed over Beverly, or 12 miles southwest of Trenton, moving
  northeast at 40 mph.

  TORNADO EMERGENCY for Bristol Croydon and Burlington. This is a 0
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

  HAZARD...Deadly tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

  IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris
           may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile
           homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
           businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete
           destruction is possible.
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