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September Discobs 2021


George BM
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6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

FF Watch.  
 

Looking at radar, I don’t see any way that the UHI over DC didn’t contribute to initiation.

I’ve gone down a rabbit hole on Bayesian statistics today for work so I wonder if you could do a test for that plausible hypothesis…

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Flash flood warning up for DC and nearby suburbs.

Flood Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
321 PM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021

District of Columbia DC-Montgomery MD-Prince Georges MD-Arlington VA-
Fairfax VA-City of Alexandria VA-City of Fairfax VA-City of Falls
Church VA-
321 PM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Flood Warning for...
  District of Columbia...
  South Central Montgomery County in central Maryland...
  West Central Prince Georges County in central Maryland...
  Arlington County in northern Virginia...
  Central Fairfax County in northern Virginia...
  The City of Alexandria in northern Virginia...
  The City of Fairfax in northern Virginia...
  The City of Falls Church in northern Virginia...

* Until 930 PM EDT Thursday.

* At 321 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
  thunderstorms. Flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in
  the warned area. Between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen.

(snip)

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OOPS, meant to say flood warning.

But for the usual trouble spots such as S. Glebe Road and the I-395 underpasses, makes not much difference.

And WTOP just announced that Columbia Pike is underwater at S. Greenbrier.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
350 PM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Southwestern District of Columbia...
  Arlington County in northern Virginia...
  East Central Fairfax County in northern Virginia...
  The City of Alexandria in northern Virginia...
  The City of Falls Church in northern Virginia...

* Until 700 PM EDT.

* At 350 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
  heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain
  have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are
  possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected
  to begin shortly.

  HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
           producing flash flooding.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
           urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Arlington...                       Alexandria...
  Annandale...                       Springfield...
  Falls Church...                    Rosslyn...
  Crystal City...                    Reagan National Airport...
  Lincolnia...                       Lake Barcroft...
  Ballston...                        Seven Corners...
  Barcroft...                        Baileys Crossroads...
  Westover...                        Cherrydale...
  Rock Creek...                      Bolling Air Force...
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NOW it's a flash flood warning, alerted through my cellphone by NWS.

WTOP confirms, and interrupted its broadcast to transmit the warning.

Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
350 PM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Southwestern District of Columbia...
  Arlington County in northern Virginia...
  East Central Fairfax County in northern Virginia...
  The City of Alexandria in northern Virginia...
  The City of Falls Church in northern Virginia...

* Until 700 PM EDT.

* At 350 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
  heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain
  have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are
  possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected
  to begin shortly.
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17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Oh? Do you have a link? 

2007    Mote, T.L., M.C. Lacke, and J.M. Shepherd, 2007: Radar signatures of the urban effect on precipitation distribution:  A case study for Atlanta, Georgia. Geophysical Research Letters. 34. L20710, doi:10.1029/2007GL031903.
 

You can probably trace from Marshall Shepherd’s work to get to what is most interesting to you.

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9 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Radar totals seem to be matching ground truth.  Near 3” in an hour in Annandale inside the Beltway and by Inova Fairfax hospital.  Only about a half inch here.

We're just on the edge of that cell here in Burke. Absolutely pissing down from time to time, then it eases up, but as I mentioned above the winds are pretty impressive.

Definitely going to be taking a long walk through the neighborhood a little later.

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