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Major Hurricane Larry


WxWatcher007
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3 hours ago, jconsor said:

 

 Great stuff. Actually, I happened to have studied eastern Atlantic WSW movers, myself, a while back and saved this list of the 12 that made US landfall (all but Carol of 1953 hit as a hurricane)(# in parentheses is days from African coast to US landfall):

 

- #6 of 1893 (GA/SC) (14)

- #4 of 1928 (FL)(11)

- #4 of 1947 (FL, LA) (14)

- Able of 1952 (SC) (13)

- Carol of 1953 (ME grazed) (11)

- Donna of 1960 (FL, NC, New England) (12)

- Dora of 1964 (FL) (13)

- Allen of 1980 (TX) (12)

- Hugo of 1989 (SC) (12)

- Fran of 1996 (NC) (14)

- Isabel of 2003 (NC) (15)

- Ivan of 2004 (AL/FL) (16)

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0Z UKMET: down to 927 mb at the end pf the run!

 

TROPICAL STORM LARRY

ANALYSED POSITION : 12.5N 29.8W

 

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122021 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------

0000UTC 02.09.2021 0 12.5N 29.8W 1002 41

1200UTC 02.09.2021 12 13.0N 34.0W 996 45

0000UTC 03.09.2021 24 13.6N 37.5W 993 44

1200UTC 03.09.2021 36 14.2N 41.0W 989 49

0000UTC 04.09.2021 48 15.3N 44.1W 981 54

1200UTC 04.09.2021 60 16.7N 47.0W 974 65

0000UTC 05.09.2021 72 18.1N 49.5W 971 62

1200UTC 05.09.2021 84 19.8N 51.8W 972 64

0000UTC 06.09.2021 96 21.4N 53.5W 969 67

1200UTC 06.09.2021 108 22.8N 55.1W 965 64

0000UTC 07.09.2021 120 24.0N 56.5W 952 81

1200UTC 07.09.2021 132 25.3N 57.9W 939 101

0000UTC 08.09.2021 144 26.8N 58.5W 927 105

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1 hour ago, Wannabehippie said:

So far NHC has had it going due west the whole time.

 

 

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 

 Larry has not moved S of due W between any two reference points. It moved due west between 8 AM and 2 PM yesterday and otherwise N of due W to WNW.

Ah okay, so it's basically academic....

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12Z UKMET: down to 922 mb at the end! But again, very low US threat. Bermuda needs to watch closely.

HURRICANE LARRY ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 33.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122021 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------

 

1200UTC 02.09.2021 0 13.3N 33.3W 993 48

0000UTC 03.09.2021 12 13.8N 37.2W 988 50

1200UTC 03.09.2021 24 14.4N 40.5W 983 52

0000UTC 04.09.2021 36 15.3N 43.6W 977 62

1200UTC 04.09.2021 48 16.3N 46.2W 975 65

0000UTC 05.09.2021 60 17.6N 48.3W 971 65

1200UTC 05.09.2021 72 19.2N 50.6W 969 68

0000UTC 06.09.2021 84 20.9N 52.5W 960 77

1200UTC 06.09.2021 96 22.2N 54.4W 949 81

0000UTC 07.09.2021 108 23.6N 56.1W 941 97

1200UTC 07.09.2021 120 25.0N 57.8W 930 106

0000UTC 08.09.2021 132 27.3N 59.1W 922 107

1200UTC 08.09.2021 144 29.9N 60.0W 922 111

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Larry the Fish
   

Larry the Fish is an anglerfish who is a character in The Animal Show.

He appeared in the episode "Fish" where he tells Stinky the Skunk and Jake the Polar Bear all about fish. Stinky named most of the possible fish that Larry states exist until it came to the part where Stinky asks him if there was a "skunkfish" to which Larry states that there aren't any. By the end of the episode, Stinky dresses up in scuba gear and passes himself off as a skunkfish in order to make Larry feel better.

 

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 0Z UKMET is again down to 922-3 mb and passes only 150 miles east of Bermuda then:

HURRICANE LARRY ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 36.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122021 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------

0000UTC 03.09.2021 0 13.9N 36.8W 988 50

1200UTC 03.09.2021 12 14.5N 40.3W 986 49

0000UTC 04.09.2021 24 15.5N 43.1W 983 54

1200UTC 04.09.2021 36 16.6N 45.8W 979 60

0000UTC 05.09.2021 48 18.0N 47.8W 972 64

1200UTC 05.09.2021 60 19.4N 49.9W 971 66

0000UTC 06.09.2021 72 20.8N 52.0W 961 72

1200UTC 06.09.2021 84 22.0N 53.8W 950 84

0000UTC 07.09.2021 96 23.3N 55.5W 936 100

1200UTC 07.09.2021 108 25.2N 57.6W 933 97

0000UTC 08.09.2021 120 27.2N 59.5W 927 103

1200UTC 08.09.2021 132 29.5N 61.4W 922 112

0000UTC 09.09.2021 144 32.5N 62.5W 923 111

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Larry looks healthy today. Good convective bursting and a cirrus covered eye that is notably larger than yesterday (Thursday) at this time. Should be a major hurricane over night or on Saturday. Time to pump up the ACE.

I still feel a bit uneasy about Bermuda. This may still be a strong hurricane that just misses to the east. But a little stronger Azores ridging could get the island into the core. We've still got the weekend to iron out modeling and any potential downstream impacts there.93de1db72cc5029ad68a2fdf8c95310c.gif

Edit: I originally typed Friday above but in my head I was thinking Saturday for major hurricane status, if not over night, though certainly that wouldn't be impossible by the 11 AST package if Larry continues to improve structurally over the next six hours. I digress, I originally meant Saturday.

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12Z UKMET: strongest yet (920mb!!) 250 miles E of Bermuda:

HURRICANE LARRY      ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N  40.1W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122021

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 03.09.2021    0  14.5N  40.1W      982            55
    0000UTC 04.09.2021   12  15.5N  42.7W      981            58
    1200UTC 04.09.2021   24  16.7N  45.4W      982            55
    0000UTC 05.09.2021   36  17.8N  47.6W      980            59
    1200UTC 05.09.2021   48  19.4N  49.7W      976            63
    0000UTC 06.09.2021   60  21.1N  51.5W      970            67
    1200UTC 06.09.2021   72  22.4N  53.5W      960            73
    0000UTC 07.09.2021   84  23.6N  55.1W      949            88
    1200UTC 07.09.2021   96  25.0N  56.9W      946            94
    0000UTC 08.09.2021  108  26.6N  58.3W      928           105
    1200UTC 08.09.2021  120  28.8N  59.7W      927           105
    0000UTC 09.09.2021  132  31.4N  60.7W      920           110
    1200UTC 09.09.2021  144  34.4N  61.1W      922           107
 

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Larry’s taking off this evening. Nice blowup of convection in the inner core and a warming eye. Outflow is incredible in all sectors. It looks to me like some mid level dry sir has been hampering the eyewall from closing off and this convection will likely do the trick in mixing that out. This storm will be a beast over the next couple of days, will be fun to watch evolve

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