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September Discussion Thread: Bring the frost; kill the bugs.


moneypitmike
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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL, that is true. I definitely find myself not caring as much if I don't jack. For instance in Mar 2018, the Scooter Slot narrowly got me and just missed 20"+ by 8 miles, but 16" in March? No complaints here.

I mean honestly...as long as you don't end up as the regional minimum....you shouldn't be mad.

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I'm not an expert on hydrology, but Oct 1st may start the year because that's when you start getting storms again that will increase water in rivers and snow in mountains which means September is the lowest point in that cycle since you've just gone through the summer and any snow from last winter/spring has melted and run off by that point.

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39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I guess my point is, why this timeline? What's the significance of Oct 1?

I was thinking stream flows and growing season for some reason.

Like if I was monitoring for crops, I’d include cold season prior and that warm season?  Restart it at the end of the growing season?

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1 hour ago, snowman21 said:

I'm not an expert on hydrology, but Oct 1st may start the year because that's when you start getting storms again that will increase water in rivers and snow in mountains which means September is the lowest point in that cycle since you've just gone through the summer and any snow from last winter/spring has melted and run off by that point.

Beat me too it. That’s what I assume.  Include winter water (that melts or leads to spring vegetation) and summer water to get a picture of how it influenced the environment?

Especially out west with Mtn snows being a huge part of the following warm season water tables.

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19 hours ago, #NoPoles said:

Wasps/yellow jackets have been super active along with the mice this year...wonder if there are any old wives tales that go along with using that to predict winter how warming the world faster than ecologic adaptation rates means that having less compensating factors, vermin encountering environments 'overly' supportive; their numbers explode in numbers, ..their behaviors growing increasingly aggressive do to the instra-species competition creates.

Mm hm..  its that old wives tale called Science. Lol.  -  just kidding there, in mangling your post buuuut -  

The present Populist ideology has flipped the script and managed to make the "wives tale," science. ( The backhanded indictment was certainly intended:  Populism tends to propagate along by f'ing moron commoners )

And in like vein, during this attempted coup de etat over intelligence, rationalism and enlightenment,  science has become the new Zodiac method.  People would rather now look for 'she loves me, he loves me not' means, anything, to feel better when the science methods predict she or he does not - in the proverbial sense.

Obviously I'm being whimsy with turn of pen here... but the reality is, some species do interim benefit from climate change, while ironically ..the whole system is in forced modulation - usually at the expense of those species that do not.   Unfortunately, warming connotes wasps and mice are among those that flourish.  As do ticks bearing pathogens that make Covid look like a head cold ... Or the huge list of migrating species sent at diaspora, because their own regions no longer support them. That can set off an ugly negative longer view, too, where the escaping biota enters the new region, but encounters no natural imposing factors ... They subsume the new ecology... etc... etc... over produce, then die.. Leaving the new region barren for having wiped out the indigenous species in lieu of toxifying their own longer term prospects.  That's the simplified version of course, but in essence, true.  It's an ugly, ugly thing, destabilizing.

Anyway, some wives tales actually have an explanation - science substantiates them.  Like, "Red sky at night, sailor's delight; red sky at morning, sailor takes warning"   This yore actually has merit in a predictive sense.  By virtue of the fact that the sun rises in the east, and storms "tend" to approach from the west, that means that as the corpuscular rays tip over the horizon, they will illuminate the under cast of the encroaching ceilings, casting them in auburn hues and salmon- yellows, and saffron fires.  It's basically 'Hurricane LSD" approaching. Ha ha.  While in the evening, by virtue of the storm leaving east, exposes the under cast of the ceiling to the last rays of the setting sun ...and the same illumination artwork sets the sky ablaze.  That means at least for awhile, fair and favorable conditions are en route.

The disgusting mice to maggots realm of biota wriggling the earth strikes me as a pretty easy Climate Change suspicion.  I noticed actually this has been happening over the last 10 years.  With increased rodentia and weird bugs I'd never seen before.  Maybe the latter, creepy insects have always been around; it's their increasing numbers merely exposing their presence.

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On 9/29/2021 at 10:07 AM, powderfreak said:

You would know more than me, but fall foliage to me doesn't really vary more than a week or so either way.  It can start late but then it usually finishes within a week of normal.... or it can start early but still finishes up around the normal time.  Like it really wants to find the average dates... which I tell people on the mountain is usually the end of the first week of October, and in town it's like October 10-15 time frame.  Columbus Day weekend in mid-October is always busy with tourism traffic and is always too late for mountain foliage but under 1,000-1,500ft you can usually catch some straggling colors.

But when folks throw out foliage as being either 2-3 weeks late or early, it is just simply hyperbole because that's like a peak in mid-September to Halloween on either end.  It just doesn't happen.

A week either side of the average seems a valid range for fall color.  I think spring leaf-out varies more.  Last year there was barely anything greening up in mid-May and whatever buds had broken were not encouraged by the 5/9 snowfall.  In 2010 everything was greening up with even the late starting white ash having 4-6" new shoots when they got blasted with low-mid 20s on 5/11.  I'd guess those 2 years were at least 3 weeks apart in green-up, probably more.

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Yesterday's 34 will be September's coldest, for our 2nd fall with 1st frost in October.  7 miles NNW in West Farmington close to the Sandy River, my wife had to scrape ice off the windshield.  (She was staying overnight with a 93 y.o lady with health issues.)

Color here is in the 30-50% range but leaf drop is way ahead of average as related to color.

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1 hour ago, tamarack said:

Yesterday's 34 will be September's coldest, for our 2nd fall with 1st frost in October.  7 miles NNW in West Farmington close to the Sandy River, my wife had to scrape ice off the windshield.  (She was staying overnight with a 93 y.o lady with health issues.)

Color here is in the 30-50% range but leaf drop is way ahead of average as related to color.

if you hit 34 wouldn't that be considered your first frost?

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56 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

if you hit 34 wouldn't that be considered your first frost?

For my records, it needs to be 32 or lower and there needs to be some frost/frozen dew on the vehicles. 
Unless 1st "frost" is accumulating snow.  :o
Never been even close to that happening.)

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