Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    16,921
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Jun Zz
    Newest Member
    Jun Zz
    Joined

Henri: Moderate-Major impacts NYC subforum this weekend, possibly into Monday August 21-23, 2021


wdrag
 Share

Recommended Posts

While wind and surge will likely be confined to eastern LI, we could have a formidable flooding event for other parts of the area. Slow moving tropical systems are trouble, we just need to hone in to where the heaviest rains will set up. 

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, mob1 said:

While wind and surge will likely be confined to eastern LI, we could have a formidable flooding event for other parts of the area. Slow moving tropical systems are trouble, we just need to hone in to where the heaviest rains will set up. 

dont think wind will be confined to eastern LI, I was looking at map projections and we have 30 mph sustained winds all the way to western nassau and 2-4 ft of surge too and thats with the current NHC track not on the western leaning models which seem to be where the majority of the guidance is now.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

49 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This isn't going to go extra tropical up here. The wind field is going to be very tight. 

We are now almost to a point where you have to consider blended model arc winds and add 15% for the gusts. All the west intense modeling with fully leaves trees is big damage.  Need  to see models ratchet down and further east.   Won’t be able to add much cogent comment for a few hours

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, mob1 said:

While wind and surge will likely be confined to eastern LI, we could have a formidable flooding event for other parts of the area. Slow moving tropical systems are trouble, we just need to hone in to where the heaviest rains will set up. 

Not entirely correct.  Wind will be more of a factor on eastern LI.  All coastal areas will be be at some degree of risk from storm surge impacts.  NWS is expecting up to a 2’ foot storm surge along the south shore of Nassau to 3’ out in the Hamptons.  This is why they have issued a storm surge watch.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is just another example of how extreme the WAR has become. Tropical cyclones that pass within 200 miles of Bermuda usually go OTS. Henri is on track to become the first tropical cyclone to landfall west of Cape Cod. Hermine in 2004 and another weak system in 1923 were the only two storms to impact Cape Cod. 
 

48C3B54C-B7BC-4A5F-A72B-3FEFF2A45DC3.thumb.jpeg.574b8e6febc62ce4b9c7256ed77152bb.jpeg

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is just another example of how extreme the WAR has become. Tropical cyclones that pass within 200 miles of Bermuda usually go OTS. Henri is on track to become the first tropical cyclone to landfall west of Cape Cod. Hermine in 2004 and another weak system in 1923 were the onky two storms to impact Cape Cod. 
 

48C3B54C-B7BC-4A5F-A72B-3FEFF2A45DC3.thumb.jpeg.574b8e6febc62ce4b9c7256ed77152bb.jpeg

This still has a chance of landfalling in Central to Eastern LI

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This still has a chance of landfalling in Central to Eastern LI

 

That’s why I said west of Cape Cod. Any landfall in Rhode Island or Long Island would be the first recorded event to pass within 200 miles of Bermuda. Numerous models are showing a potential landfall somewhere in Suffolk county. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s why I said west of Cape Cod. Any landfall in Rhode Island or Long Island would be the first recorded event to pass within 200 miles of Bermuda. Numerous models are showing a potential landfall somewhere in Suffolk county. 

What I find fascinating is that this storm will eventually tug west without a huge trough to our west .

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, wdrag said:

We are now almost to a point where you have to consider blended model arc winds and add 15% for the gusts. All the west intense modeling with fully leaves trees is big damage.  Need  to see models ratchet down and further east.   Won’t be able to add much cogent comment for a few hours

15% for gusts is a good number, so for western Nassau County that would be 30 mph sustained with tropical storm force gusts and thats on the old NHC track which will likely need to be adjusted west.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s why I said west of Cape Cod. Any landfall in Rhode Island or Long Island would be the first recorded event to pass within 200 miles of Bermuda. Numerous models are showing a potential landfall somewhere in Suffolk county. 

Based on latest trends I would say odds of landfall in Long Island are higher than they are east of there.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Not entirely correct.  Wind will be more of a factor on eastern LI.  All coastal areas will be be at some degree of risk from storm surge impacts.  NWS is expecting up to a 2’ foot storm surge along the south shore of Nassau to 3’ out in the Hamptons.  This is why they have issued a storm surge watch.

hmmm I saw 2-4 ft for Nassau and 3-5 feet for Suffolk

and depends what you mean by winds, 30 mph winds sustained and tropical storm force gusts for Nassau are up there and thats on the old forecast track which will likely be adjusted west.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Based on latest trends I would say odds of landfall in Long Island are higher than they are east of there.

 

W-C LI is probably the furthest west this can get. Don’t see a direct NYC LF but even a landfall near ISP gets NYC proper into TS conditions but likely not much further west than that 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Storm looks west of NHC track. LLC near 74W.

Landfall closer to NYC wouldn't surprise me. Storm slows down and loops on approach which means heavy flooding & coastal impacts. 

How severe will depend on how strong Henri gets. A Category 2+ at peak strength likely weakening to 80-85 mph Cat 1 is possible. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Based on latest trends I would say odds of landfall in Long Island are higher than they are east of there.

 

I agree. Should be an interesting next few model runs. Remember the Euro has been underestimating the the WAR. It didn’t start showing Fred going further to our west until practically nowcast time.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • wdrag changed the title to Henri: Moderate-Major impacts NYC subforum this weekend, possibly into Monday August 21-23, 2021
  • Rjay unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...