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Tropical Storm Henri


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NHC operations -related question:

do they still employ DIVORAC techniques?   

I don't hear them referencing that as much - if ever as of late - in their updates wrt to specific entities.   More over, I don't see DIVORAC products as easily/readily as years ago now that think about it.  Maybe some newer tech has supplanted that method ?

I just used to noticed primitive eyes showing up earlier/clearer in DIV.

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

NHC operations -related question:

do they still employ DIVORAC techniques?   

I don't hear them referencing that as much - if ever as of late - in their updates wrt to specific entities.   More over, I don't see DIVORAC products as easily/readily as years ago not that think about it.  Maybe some newer tech has supplanted that method ?

I just used to noticed primitive eyes showing up earlier/clearer in DIV.

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt08L.html

Yeah, it's near a t4.0 65 knots (minimal hurricane) 

 

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1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

Yeah I don't think anyone wants it to stall just offshore or on the coast.  we want it moving quickly and well inland

A stall offshore means meh for everyone except Ginx who dons the wizard outfit and performs water rescues . In order for this to cause the damage that most here are after.. it needs to haul ass up here 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

A stall offshore means meh for everyone except Ginx who dons the wizard outfit and performs water rescues . In order for this to cause the damage that most here are after.. it needs to haul ass up here 

This will not haul. Option not there.

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1 minute ago, crossbowftw3 said:

We really can put a feather in our caps that these waters will (almost) always destroy every slow-moving TC that attempts to move through.

Warm water exists not far off the coast. But yeah it will weaken it eventually. Slow moving also means less shear which will help maintain strength. Maybe this can move like 15-20kts per hour if it gets caught up, but this isn't a typical SNE strike with an accelerating system. I still would lean not as far west as GFS or other models.

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2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Belle was gutted as it passed 37-38N though.  120mph to 75 in like 15 hours

I may represent the minority in this jest ...but that would be fine for me in this case.

I don't need to witness 120 mph anything unless it's cash to my bank account delivery service -

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Just now, Torch Tiger said:

Belle was gutted as it passed 37-38N though.  120mph to 75 in like 15 hours

Exactly. That’s my “concern” here. A Cat 3 just meandering north until it makes landfall as a weak cat 1.  Got to get it to move more quickly or hope the waters south of us sustain it longer than is likely 

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I may represent the minority in this jest ...fine.

I don't need to witness 120 mph anything unless it's cash to my bank account delivery service -

I "witnessed" around 120mph in Port Charlotte in the bathtub forming a human shield over my baby.  It was definitely less enjoyable than you would surmise based on people's desires here.  Still a decent part of me is always wishing for each storm to hit.

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Looking over the total layout from sources... It seems to me this region annotated below is the better region for intensification.   The shear should be less over that geographic window of opportunity ... ample warm g-string water .. yadda yadda should Henri make it through that region.

 

image.thumb.png.3c94d4f6da28fd38c4d552228fb5346a.png

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38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Prefer to get it inland to pike and then slide NNE

I prefer it ruins everyone's labor day to give us the trifecta of 3 shitty, 3 day summer weekend's in a row (counting Memorial Day as the "unofficial" start to summer). 

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  • dendrite changed the title to Tropical Storm Henri
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