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Major Hurricane Grace


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Although the 18Z GEFS members are overall weaker than many earlier runs, the 18Z Euro ens has a good number of strong members out of its 51 members with it easily the most active run of today.
 

 Also, watch Invest 96L for the possibility that it does something not well modeled that then disrupts the steering flow enough to cause a significant deviation in Grace’s track vs modeling. 

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My guess is that we'll see a remnant low entering the gulf similar to Fred, although I think the ceiling for this one could be higher than it is for Fred. I'm also not completely ruling out Grace going just south of Hispaniola but we'll see... 

Either way this likely isn't going to end well for Haiti due to that earthquake 

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The ever-bullish HWRF takes it north of the Greater Antilles and brings it into South Florida as a powerful hurricane https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=07L&pkg=satIR&runtime=2021081418&fh=-6

Feels like we're caught in a time loop, like a version of Groundhog Day with tropical cyclones that seem like a serious threat but end up dying over Hispaniola. 

Screen Shot 2021-08-14 at 10.07.28 PM.png

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16 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

My guess is that we'll see a remnant low entering the gulf similar to Fred, although I think the ceiling for this one could be higher than it is for Fred. I'm also not completely ruling out Grace going just south of Hispaniola but we'll see... 

Either way this likely isn't going to end well for Haiti due to that earthquake 

How much it will redevelop after it goes over Hispaniola will depend entirely on if there is any shear once it clears the island. The waters are still pretty warm out there, even with Fred stirring things up. But you can have temps in the 90s, if there is shear to tear it apart, it won't develop IMHO.

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NHC has shifted track north, I’m now in the cone!

New track is just slightly south of HWRF scenario. It will really all come down to whether Grace goes into Hispaniola on Monday, or if it passes to the north.

Notably, Grace passing through Hebert Box right now, which favors that it will hit South Florida... unlike Fred which formed west of the box and technically did not pass through it.  

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I'm wondering if 96L could influence Grace's track at all. The GFS doesn't develop 96L, and Grace goes right over the islands. HMON and HWRF develop 96L, and Grace gets pulled further north. Maybe a stronger 96L could pull Grace a bit more north? That's just one run from each of those models so it could all change by next run of course but 96L may be making an already very tough forecast even tougher...

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Grace doesn't seem to be gaining any latitude at all. Don't see how any of those HWRF runs of it getting north of Puerto Rico could verify. Looks like it could just cruise the Caribbean right into the Gulf.

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To say Grace is poorly organized is an understatement. Though radar doesn't tell the entire tale, the system is pretty much entirely within TJUA WSR-88D. So we are at least given a hint at what's under the hood. Whether nearby in the low levels or at a distance in the mid levels, there's just a piss-poor representation of a closed circulation regardless of satellite presentation. I really have no bearing on what will become of Grace. In this state it could organize and deepen with a wide variance of track path or do nothing but cause flooding concerns for Hispaniola.
5735ef78ea2fe3f31fe8aa197bad15d1.gif

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5 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Well Shear strikes again.  Truly looks like an El Nino set up with the string of upper air lows out there dotting from Florida out to the Leward Islands.

Yea, very  el nino like. Phase 2 MJO isnt  doing  much. 2 very very weak lows.

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Does a mess now keep it South of the highest peaks of Hispaniola?  Cuba has mountains as well, but most systems survive Cuba.  Fred didn't, but it was already almost dead from Hispaniola.  And Fred did rise from the dead.  Intensity depends on track, and track on intensity.  12Z GFS weak system reorganizing near the Yucatan and hitting Mexico as probably a TS seems as likely as anything else.

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Remote sensing information is showing a lot of landslides and ground deformation along the mountains of the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti since the passage of Fred and the 7.2 magnitude EQ that occurred there yesterday. Regardless of Grace's classification, its wave envelope is still likely to produce significant flash flooding over the same region as Fred. This is concerning to say the least. Hopefully they can get folks out of mudflow prone areas where roads may be damaged prior to Grace's passage in the coming days. Upper level divergence will remain favorable for strong convection and prolonged heavy rainfall.

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One huge difference between Fred and Grace, is that Grace has a strong and organized area of convection that is on track to go north of the Greater Antilles. This drastically increases the probability of a center reformation north of Hispaniola https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-E_Antilles-01-12-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

 

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Recon just finding some 20kt easterly winds, almost definitely an open wave.  The southern convective blob is too far south of the LLJ  which gives it no chance of spinning up a new circulation.  Everything going in accordance with the pun I made last night THERE IS NO SAVING GRACE.  

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4 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Yea, very  el nino like. Phase 2 MJO isnt  doing  much. 2 very very weak lows.

Going to have to see how this works out. 75% of you killed off Fred and now are Grace.  Pessimism is not forecasting.

Experience shows that storms that get battered by Cuba and the like do reintensify  when they  move back into Gulf with anything remnant left of them and begin a nw-ne motion.

This appears to be happening with Fred and if that shear drops away, which is possible but not likely, then watch out 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Amped said:

Recon just finding some 20kt easterly winds, almost definitely an open wave.  The southern convective blob is too far south of the LLJ  which gives it no chance of spinning up a new circulation.  Everything going in accordance with the pun I made last night THERE IS NO SAVING GRACE.  

The lack of a well-defined center, and the vigorous convection passing to the north of the Greater Antilles, is an ideal setup for Grace to gracefully glide over Hispaniola and begin intensifying as it enters the Bahamas. 

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51 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

The lack of a well-defined center, and the vigorous convection passing to the north of the Greater Antilles, is an ideal setup for Grace to gracefully glide over Hispaniola and begin intensifying as it enters the Bahamas. 

All 12z guidance keeps it south of the Bahamas. 

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1 hour ago, turtlehurricane said:

The lack of a well-defined center, and the vigorous convection passing to the north of the Greater Antilles, is an ideal setup for Grace to gracefully glide over Hispaniola and begin intensifying as it enters the Bahamas. 

better evacuate now

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  • WxWatcher007 changed the title to Major Hurricane Grace

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