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Major Hurricane Grace


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3 hours ago, Prospero said:

Best eyes of the year last year were the ones that pounded the Yucatan coast. Couple out in the Atlantic that we watched as well. But the ones that came in late season were very impressive and were devastating to that area.

 

Laura

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The GFS is showing a huge precip donut forming around Grace  12hrs before landfall. Likely means rapid intensification up until landfall despite a bit of northerly shear. Possible that it becomes the first major of the season.

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6 hours ago, Windspeed said:
7 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:
Laura

Yes. Laura had an awesome eye during the 24 hours leading up to landfall.

It did. Zeta and Eta had more impressive perfect eyes as it approached the Yucatan. 

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Grace has deep convection expanding about its northern semicircle. Recon may find a hurricane again by the time it gets there this morning. It has enough time to undergo some significant intensification today, but it will need to wrap that deeper convection around the southern periphery.
2e2b2d35df5c3bb92abf1816e9073855.gif

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Also, recon found that Grace has reorganized its core and that it is contained within the deepest convection. The convection just hasn't expanded much to the south. Still, Grace is in a more favorable environment than pre Yucatán it seems. Also a mid-level eye feature looks to be forming where recon found the low-level vorticity maximum. Have to watch that closely.e230fbbd789f7eb6c7588fe49e2d25c2.jpg

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Impressive convection but the structure is taking on a shape that doesn't look conducive for rapid intensification. At least for now. Unless that improves, despite the cold cloudtop signatures, slow strengthening is on the menu into landfall. Good shot at a at solid Category 2 here.

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18 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Grace is beginning to encircle the center with convection.

And right on cue. The last 12 hours up to landfall were the ones that we expected Grace would intensify more aggressively and we are near that threshold. We needed a hurricane that looked like one, and it's taking that look now.

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And right on cue. The last 12 hours up to landfall were the ones that we expected Grace would intensify more aggressively and we are near that threshold. We needed a hurricane that looked like one, and it's taking that look now.
Yeah, Grace has never been graceful with respect to symmetry, much less an eye. That may be about to change.
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2 hours ago, Amped said:

Looking at the IR, it appears the QPF bomb is detonating

 

21 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Holy moly that last frame on the IR. 

Yes, now I have this image in my mind

nuclear.jpeg

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7 minutes ago, Scott747 said:

That's what it's going to look like too after landfall once it hits those mountains. The disintegration of Karl was pretty amazing.

Yeah, no cyclone is match to the Sierra Madre. The bigger and meaner, the more dramatic the fall. Only thing is all it's juice is squeezed out, causing mudslides and extensive flooding.

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Shear has abated some, to around 10-15 kts. Looks like it gained a bit of latitude during the convective explosion, but not much. Now looks like Tecolutla may be ground zero. If trends continue we can speculate on a major at landfall.

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  • WxWatcher007 changed the title to Major Hurricane Grace

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