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July 28-29 Severe Potential


sbnwx85
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It's kinda hard to tell with this storm motion if it's gonna hit Michigan as forecasted or go down into Illinois

Unless things change soon, Michigan is out of it.

Trajectory has been more S to SSE.


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Yikes...

Quote
 Mesoscale Discussion 1380
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0951 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

   Areas affected...portions of western Wisconsin.

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 399...

   Valid 290251Z - 290345Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 399
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Very strong winds (80+ mph) likely for the next 1 to 2
   hours.

   DISCUSSION...A narrow corridor of very intense winds has developed
   with a bowing segment along the Chippewa, Eau Claire, and Clark
   county lines. The KARX WSR-88D has the best viewing angle for this
   storm, but the extreme wind values being sampled at ~6000 feet have
   resulted in considerable dealiasing issues with the velocity data at
   the 0.5 degree tilt. However, by using higher tilts and other
   viewing angles such as KDLH, there is high confidence that winds
   between 8 and 10kft are at or above 80 knots. Therefore, areas near
   the apex of this bow are likely experiencing surface winds in excess
   of 80mph. Given the favorable downstream environment and the fact
   that this bowing segment is still early in its life cycle, even
   stronger winds are possible as it continues south-southeast over the
   next 1 to 2 hours. In fact, the early stages of a bookend vortex may
   be starting in eastern Clark county indicating the system is likely
   in its maturing stage.

   ..Bentley.. 07/29/2021

 

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MOD Risk & PDS STW but TWC still airs programs? Are they at least giving top & bottom hr updates? Admittedly PDS STW is quite rare, but a MOD Risk this time of year definitely deserves attention. 

EDIT They're not even giving 30 min updates!

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3 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Time to consider if this going further west than expected could enhance the severe threat later today further east and maybe have it stretch further

Thats if the capping further to the south of the line doesn't have an impact

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The supercell that's been NW of OSH has evolved into a classic book-end vortex over the past 30 min or so. GRB is sampling 90+ mph outbound winds around 3000'. This feature looks to directly affect the Milwaukee metro area and may at least clip portions of Chicagoland. It has yet to encounter the most favorable instability, unfortunately. Likely to be a threat for rain-wrapped tornadoes with it off and on, as well.

bev.thumb.png.b03fbb5e599a96d27be8321258db2c13.png

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