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July 28-29 Severe Potential


sbnwx85
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Part of me feels that SPC went with a Severe Thunderstorm Watch specifically so that they could label it as a Particularly Dangerous Situation for straight-line winds. Tornado probabilities are at the maximum (20%) for a SVR watch, while the SPC outlook has a 10% tornado probability (within 25 miles of a point); normally we would expect a Tornado Watch with a 10% on the outlook, barring some post-outlook "nowcasting" suggesting lower probabilities.

Typically I've noticed that 10% contours almost always lead to Tornado Watches, while 5% contours can go in either direction (that is, either a SVR or a TOR watch).

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5 minutes ago, BrandonC_TX said:

Part of me feels that SPC went with a Severe Thunderstorm Watch specifically so that they could label it as a Particularly Dangerous Situation for straight-line winds. Tornado probabilities are at the maximum (20%) for a SVR watch, while the SPC outlook has a 10% tornado probability (within 25 miles of a point); normally we would expect a Tornado Watch with a 10% on the outlook.

Yeah, rather bizarre situation there. Just looking at the radar almost right off the bat, it seems things want to line/bow out pretty quick so looking like the longer-lived/strong (supercell) tornado threat won't really materialize. Not to say there couldn't be a stronger (EF2 or even 3, like that Chicago 'burbs one a few weeks ago) spin-up with an HP supercell embedded in the QLCS as it takes shape down the road.

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May just be distance from the respective radar (but warning wording is also stronger on it, too) but the eastern cluster riding along and east of US 51/I-39 looks to be the more impressive right now.

 

Quote

This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. These storms are producing widespread
wind damage across Lincoln County. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy
structure and stay away from windows.

 

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