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August 2021


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Temperatures rose into the upper 80s and lower 90s in the northern Middle Atlantic region and middle 90s elsewhere in the Middle Atlantic region. High temperatures included:

Allentown: 92°
Baltimore: 98°
Boston: 93°
Burlington: 90°
Danbury: 91° (tied record set in 2016)
Harrisburg: 94°
Hartford: 93°
Islip: 85°
New York City-JFK: 85°
New York City-LGA: 92°
New York City-NYC: 89°
Newark: 94°
Philadelphia: 95°
Providence: 90°
Scranton: 91°
Washington, DC: 96°

90° Days for Select Cities (through August 11):

Albany: 4 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days)
Allentown: 19 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days)
Baltimore: 38 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days)
Boston: 17 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days)
Bridgeport: 8 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days)
Burlington: 8 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days)
Harrisburg: 26 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days)
Hartford: 18 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days)
Islip: 3 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days)
New York City-JFK: 6 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days)
New York City-LGA: 18 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days)
New York City-NYC: 12 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days)
Newark: 30 (2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days)
Philadelphia: 26 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days)
Scranton: 14 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days)
Washington, DC: 35 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days)

New York City-Newark Average: 17 (2020: 22 days)
...Expected: 18 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data)

Extreme heat descended onto the Pacific Northwest today. High temperatures included:

Dallesport, WA: 110° (old record: 109°, 1981)
Eugene, OR: 102°
Medford, OR: 104°
Pendleton, OR: 101°
Portland: 102° (tied record set in 1977)
Richland, WA: 107° (tied record set in 1958)
Salem, OR: 103°
Seattle: 91°

As a result of the ongoing bout of extreme heat, Portland will likely experience its second extreme heat event of the year, making 2021 the first year on record with two such events. Portland could also experience 2 or more 100° high temperatures, allowing 2021 to tie or break the all-time record for most such days. There remains a possibility that Seattle could also experience its second extreme heat event of the year.

In some of the long-range guidance that heat could later be followed by another round of heat in the Northern Plains a week or so later. If so, one will see a similar sequence of events as occurred from late June to mid-July.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September.

The SOI was +10.26 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.229 today.

On August 9 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.433 (RMM). The August 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.134 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.1° (0.1° above normal).

 

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15 minutes ago, LIWeatherGuy29 said:

Storms fizzled out before reaching western LI. Yesterday we had a good soaking of rain for over an hour here. Also had loud thunder and lightning.

Again color me stunned, STUNNED. I’m having the usual few raindrops now that make it this distance east from the daily T-storm blowups in NJ. Yesterday’s was briefly light to moderate in my backyard and early this morning we had a brief downpour. 

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Again color me stunned, STUNNED. I’m having the usual few raindrops now that make it this distance east from the daily T-storm blowups in NJ. Yesterday’s was briefly light to moderate in my backyard and early this morning we had a brief downpour. 

I remember when storms used to die in ne nj and reform over long island. These last few years have been really good for ne nj, s.i to elizabeth/new brunswick 

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8 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

How? 

Our average summer temperatures have been near or in the top 5-10 since 2010. 

Also the higher dews lead to higher heat indices which is what affects people the most rather than raw temps. 

This summer will be in the upper echelon with 100+ recorded at several locations this June and possibly this Thursday-Friday. 

But we dont keep track of heat by heat index unfortunately.

I can't even find what the highest heat index ever recorded for JFK was.

To me the best raw measure of heat is number of 90 degree highs.

 

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9 hours ago, bluewave said:

84° is the highest on record at JFK and EWR. The JFK record was set in 2016 and Newark in 1995. While the Sussex County records only go back to 2000, your record is 79°set  in 2016. You can see how many hourly records there have been at our stations in the last 6 years.

A32DB3B5-6564-44C7-B181-F2C9D3518408.thumb.png.3dfa726cb3401c44e1705f0f22dfa2ec.png
CCCD584C-F47B-48FC-A8F3-D9367CE59419.thumb.png.ed338cff0040e58bb99a7166eabf2c58.pngE6CAE126-1D26-473E-B14B-4FBD616F63A8.thumb.png.42568b89045fd67a2b2f2238974297bc.png

Hey Chris how do you find what the highest heat index ever recorded was for a given location, say, JFK?

 

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9 hours ago, bluewave said:

84° is the highest on record at JFK and EWR. The JFK record was set in 2016 and Newark in 1995. While the Sussex County records only go back to 2000, your record is 79°set  in 2016. You can see how many hourly records there have been at our stations in the last 6 years.

A32DB3B5-6564-44C7-B181-F2C9D3518408.thumb.png.3dfa726cb3401c44e1705f0f22dfa2ec.png
CCCD584C-F47B-48FC-A8F3-D9367CE59419.thumb.png.ed338cff0040e58bb99a7166eabf2c58.pngE6CAE126-1D26-473E-B14B-4FBD616F63A8.thumb.png.42568b89045fd67a2b2f2238974297bc.png

wow Aug 13, 2016 also happened at the peak of the Perseids, similar to the August heat this year.  Do you recall what the high temp and highest heat index on that day was at JFK?  I think that was our last August Excessive Heat Warning before this year.  Was that also the year JFK had 42 75+ dewpoints?

 

 

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4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Temperatures rose into the upper 80s and lower 90s in the northern Middle Atlantic region and middle 90s elsewhere in the Middle Atlantic region. High temperatures included:

Allentown: 92°
Baltimore: 98°
Boston: 93°
Burlington: 90°
Danbury: 91° (tied record set in 2016)
Harrisburg: 94°
Hartford: 93°
Islip: 85°
New York City-JFK: 85°
New York City-LGA: 92°
New York City-NYC: 89°
Newark: 94°
Philadelphia: 95°
Providence: 90°
Scranton: 91°
Washington, DC: 96°

90° Days for Select Cities (through August 11):

Albany: 4 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days)
Allentown: 19 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days)
Baltimore: 38 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days)
Boston: 17 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days)
Bridgeport: 8 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days)
Burlington: 8 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days)
Harrisburg: 26 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days)
Hartford: 18 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days)
Islip: 3 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days)
New York City-JFK: 6 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days)
New York City-LGA: 18 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days)
New York City-NYC: 12 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days)
Newark: 30 (2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days)
Philadelphia: 26 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days)
Scranton: 14 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days)
Washington, DC: 35 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days)

New York City-Newark Average: 17 (2020: 22 days)
...Expected: 18 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data)

Extreme heat descended onto the Pacific Northwest today. High temperatures included:

Dallesport, WA: 110° (old record: 109°, 1981)
Eugene, OR: 102°
Medford, OR: 104°
Pendleton, OR: 101°
Portland: 102° (tied record set in 1977)
Richland, WA: 107° (tied record set in 1958)
Salem, OR: 103°
Seattle: 91°

As a result of the ongoing bout of extreme heat, Portland will likely experience its second extreme heat event of the year, making 2021 the first year on record with two such events. Portland could also experience 2 or more 100° high temperatures, allowing 2021 to tie or break the all-time record for most such days. There remains a possibility that Seattle could also experience its second extreme heat event of the year.

In some of the long-range guidance that heat could later be followed by another round of heat in the Northern Plains a week or so later. If so, one will see a similar sequence of events as occurred from late June to mid-July.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September.

The SOI was +10.26 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.229 today.

On August 9 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.433 (RMM). The August 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.134 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.1° (0.1° above normal).

 

lol NYC didn't hit 90

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51 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

"This is our last heatwave" you said. Im holding you to that

a heat wave is 3 days in a row of 90 degree temps. i am very confident after this current heat wave that will not happen . until next summer.. unless this current heat wave did not meet such criteria, thursday and friday will be over 90 not sure about saturday or if the park hit 90 today..

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The next 8 days are averaging 83degs.(74/92).

Today will see peak T's for the this heat outburst.     90* to 100*.     Wind W, except S late at JFK.

75*(92%RH) here at 6am, overcast.   Still 75* at 7am, but hazy blue now.         82*(80%RH) by Noon.        86*(75%RH) by 2pm.        88*(70%RH) by 3pm.        89*(67%RH) at 3:30pm.

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Morning thoughts…

Early showers will depart. It will become mostly sunny and hot. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 90s.  Some locations will reach the upper 90s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 93°

Newark: 99°

Philadelphia: 97°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 83.9°; 15-Year: 84.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 85.3°; 15-Year: 85.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 86.4°; 15-Year: 86.4°

Hot weather will continue tomorrow.

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts…

Early showers will depart. It will become mostly sunny and hot. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 90s.  Some locations will reach the upper 90s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 93°

Newark: 99°

Philadelphia: 97°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 83.9°; 15-Year: 84.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 85.3°; 15-Year: 85.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 86.4°; 15-Year: 86.4°

Hot weather will continue tomorrow.

It’s fairly wet currently here on the uws, so the park may struggle to the low 90s. After the very wet July foliage is very dense. As we have discussed at length unless something is done about the foliage around d the sensor the issue will only get worse moving forward. 

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9 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It’s fairly wet currently here on the uws, so the park may struggle to the low 90s. After the very wet July foliage is very dense. As we have discussed at length unless something is done about the foliage around d the sensor the issue will only get worse moving forward. 

I agree. I could see LGA reaching 95-96, but Central Park topping out at 92-93.

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