Tatamy Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Latest discussion from the NHC indicates that Henri makes it’s closest approach to the region Sunday morning. It is projected to have winds of 85 mph with an expanding wind field. This aligns with a high tide in sync with a full moon. This is a recipe for significant coastal flooding. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: heaviest rains are 100 miles to the west with TC at our latitude, most of us care about rain not wind and surge. East of storm is usually boring with paltry rainfall totals East is where most of the action is with landfalling tropical systems in the northeast minus the heaviest rain totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tek1972 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 GFS well eastSent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 8 minutes ago, Tatamy said: Latest discussion from the NHC indicates that Henri makes it’s closest approach to the region Sunday morning. It is projected to have winds of 85 mph with an expanding wind field. This aligns with a high tide in sync with a full moon. This is a recipe for significant coastal flooding. I think this could lead to pockets of moderate coastal flooding (assuming it heads N-NNE towards the Cape). The closer the track the worse it will be. The wind field will be expanding but it's not a very large storm. I definitely see your point though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 If the Cape ends up on the east side on this storm the surge will be destructive there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 33 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: 4 tornado warnings but all north of here Do we know if any actually materialized? We got out of bed and went to the basement. It was loud here north of HPN but no reports in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: The 12z UKMET is really tucked in with Henri. But we’’ll have to wait for the higher res maps in a little while. These charts are early but low res. https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=72&nh=1&archive=0 Can you post when that's available? Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 @bluewave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Just now, Rjay said: Lol wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Lol wow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 The unmet is every weenies dream come true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 We toss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 8 minutes ago, Rjay said: We toss? Not til after the euro runs…if the euro agrees then it’s game on. edir…New England Mets note ukie initialized too strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 33 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: Do we know if any actually materialized? We got out of bed and went to the basement. It was loud here north of HPN but no reports in these parts. Mt Holly is conducting surveys in a few areas of north jersey and PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 58 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: Do we know if any actually materialized? We got out of bed and went to the basement. It was loud here north of HPN but no reports in these parts. I saw a video of one but it was in eastern PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 33 minutes ago, Rjay said: We toss? tossing runs that favor weenies is discrimination Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 32 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Not til after the euro runs…if the euro agrees then it’s game on. edir…New England Mets note ukie initialized too strong hmmm if this storms hits eastern NE it will likely only be a TS when it gets into the much colder waters up there. It's only chance of making a landfall as a hurricane is in the tristate area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The 12z UKMET is really tucked in with Henri. But we’’ll have to wait for the higher res maps in a little while. These charts are early but low res. https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=72&nh=1&archive=0 so basically what I heard Dr Postel say is that if the storm is stronger it will be further west and if it's weaker it'll hit the cape. The choice according to the maps posted is either out to sea, a 65 mph TS hitting the Cape or (the extreme scenario) an 85 mph H hitting the tristate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 hour ago, Rjay said: East is where most of the action is with landfalling tropical systems in the northeast minus the heaviest rain totals. you're right of course but a caveat in this case is the much cooler waters east of here, if it makes landfall on the Cape it looks like it will only be a TS at LF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 hour ago, Rjay said: I think this could lead to pockets of moderate coastal flooding (assuming it heads N-NNE towards the Cape). The closer the track the worse it will be. The wind field will be expanding but it's not a very large storm. I definitely see your point though. I wonder how much rain for us on that track. Also do you think the storm will be really destructive for the Cape even if it makes landfall only as a TS (65 mph) there? Weren't Bertha and Floyd both 65 mph TS when they made landfall on Long Island? Didn't see much destruction there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 hour ago, Rjay said: We toss? Haven’t they flown the Gulfstream jet out off the mid Atlantic coast to sample the upper levels? I think they were actually going to send it out again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Just now, Tatamy said: Haven’t they flown the Gulfstream jet out off the mid Atlantic coast to sample the upper levels? I think they were actually going to send it out again. Yeah. I thought they did and will continue to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 12z Euro continues to be east and weaker. 12z HWRF/HMON are aimed at the vicinity of New Bedford,MA. 12z Ukmet is west. Too early to write this one off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 8 minutes ago, Rjay said: Yeah. I thought they did and will continue to do so. That is why the Ukmet run surprises me. Once the data from first flight was uploaded the GFS went east. Maybe the Ukmet will go back east tonight. Let’s wait on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 21 hours ago, LibertyBell said: how long before subtropical goes full on tropical? Very impressive dew points from Florida into SE Canada. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: hmmm if this storms hits eastern NE it will likely only be a TS when it gets into the much colder waters up there. It's only chance of making a landfall as a hurricane is in the tristate area That's not true. Could easily still make landfall anywhere between Montauk and Nantucket as a hurricane. All options are still on the table. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 hour ago, BombsAway1288 said: That's not true. Could easily still make landfall anywhere between Montauk and Nantucket as a hurricane. All options are still on the table. Would say about East Hampton is furthest west possible landfall at this stage. Given this will be more or a true tropical than Sandy there probably won’t be a ton of wind west of the center so you’d have to be near or east of it for strongest winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 The remnants of Fred moved away from the region. Earlier today, Worcester picked up 3.05" rainfall in five hours. It also recorded back-to-back hours with 1.00" or more rain for just the 3rd time on record and its 8th highest hourly rainfall figure of 1.44". In the Middle Atlantic region, temperatures rose into the lower 90s in Baltimore, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. Tomorrow will be partly sunny and very warm. Temperatures will likely climb into the middle and upper 80s across the region. During the weekend, the track of Henri will have potential impacts on the weather, especially for Sunday into Monday. At present, a track that takes Henri toward landfall in eastern New England or off the New England shore remains the most likely outcome. That should bring high surf, rip tides, showers and possibly some periods of rain to eastern parts of the Middle Atlantic region, especially the eastern half of Long Island. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September. The SOI was +8.92 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.704 today. On August 17 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 2.344 (RMM). The August 16-adjusted amplitude was 2.676 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 68% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.7° (0.7° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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