Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    16,988
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Dankles
    Newest Member
    Dankles
    Joined

SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2021


WxWatcher007
 Share

Recommended Posts

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Bob. 

Wouldn’t this be coming at a different angle than Bob did?

One thing I will say living in S FL, when storms are nearby you need to pay attention, there is not much time to prep as one would think.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Wouldn’t this be coming at a different angle than Bob did?

One thing I will say living in S FL, when storms are nearby you need to pay attention, there is not much time to prep as one would think.

Similarly

 NNE motion but Bob was a Bahamas home brew. 6 Z GEFS

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_19.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Pluffmud said:

Gotta say if there is a landfall in SNE Bastardi called it. 06z GFS is beast by SNE standards. 

LOL. When every storm is a blizzard and every hurricane has a potential landfall on the east coast, sooner or later he could be right!!!! :weenie: 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL. When every storm is a blizzard and every hurricane has a potential landfall on the east coast, sooner or later he could be right!!!! :weenie: 

Yeah he is way overdue to be right on hurricane landfall in New England. Lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The story of Henri in two gifs

GEFS last 8 runs

giphy.gif?cid=790b76110dcb50702ad467c628

 

Operational GFS last 8 runs

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611b38cf007c4cbd2e796

It's easy to see the 500h changes here, and it's been similar across the guidance--even the Euro/EPS which tries its hardest to effectively kill Henri as it's making its turn to the west has been adjusting a bit to a steering pattern where we see a trough try to capture rather than kick Henri as it ends its westward jog and turns northward as ridging over eastern Canada seals off an escape route to the NE. In fact, the guidance has been playing catch up IMO from forecasting TC genesis to now, with Henri consistently more organized and further south/west than forecasts. Doesn't mean it'll stay that way, but it can have significant downstream implications. 

Although the location of Henri's development and potential northward swing is almost totally outside climatology from what I've seen with regard to how we get our storms (they're usually deeper in the tropics and CVs), the potential steering pattern fits the method of how we tend to see our TC impacts with ridging over SE Canada and troughing in the Great Lakes/Mid Atlantic.  

Again, even the operational Euro (note the EPS were the first to hint at a East Coast threat days ago before pulling back) in its last four 00z runs have trended toward a similar 500h look that lends itself to a close call or direct impact. 

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611e675f132fcdd33e009

 

The signal looks legit to me, but 5 days out I know a lot can change. I'm watching 1) whether the south/west trend continues as Henri runs into a more favorable environment the next 12 hours that will make it more resilient when it encounters more northerly shear later tonight, 2) whether the trough continues to be oriented in a way that creates a capture rather than a kick, and 3) whether the ridge continues to become more pronounced on guidance. 

 

 

  • Like 7
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...