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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2021


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3 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Wouldn’t this be coming at a different angle than Bob did?

One thing I will say living in S FL, when storms are nearby you need to pay attention, there is not much time to prep as one would think.


 NNE motion but Bob was a Bahamas home brew. 6 Z GEFS


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The story of Henri in two gifs

GEFS last 8 runs



Operational GFS last 8 runs


It's easy to see the 500h changes here, and it's been similar across the guidance--even the Euro/EPS which tries its hardest to effectively kill Henri as it's making its turn to the west has been adjusting a bit to a steering pattern where we see a trough try to capture rather than kick Henri as it ends its westward jog and turns northward as ridging over eastern Canada seals off an escape route to the NE. In fact, the guidance has been playing catch up IMO from forecasting TC genesis to now, with Henri consistently more organized and further south/west than forecasts. Doesn't mean it'll stay that way, but it can have significant downstream implications. 

Although the location of Henri's development and potential northward swing is almost totally outside climatology from what I've seen with regard to how we get our storms (they're usually deeper in the tropics and CVs), the potential steering pattern fits the method of how we tend to see our TC impacts with ridging over SE Canada and troughing in the Great Lakes/Mid Atlantic.  

Again, even the operational Euro (note the EPS were the first to hint at a East Coast threat days ago before pulling back) in its last four 00z runs have trended toward a similar 500h look that lends itself to a close call or direct impact. 



The signal looks legit to me, but 5 days out I know a lot can change. I'm watching 1) whether the south/west trend continues as Henri runs into a more favorable environment the next 12 hours that will make it more resilient when it encounters more northerly shear later tonight, 2) whether the trough continues to be oriented in a way that creates a capture rather than a kick, and 3) whether the ridge continues to become more pronounced on guidance. 



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