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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2021


WxWatcher007
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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That ridge is legit. Either it’d have to get poleward before te Greater Antilles to get steered into the SE or round the ridge in the Gulf and get lifted northeast by a trough like the GFS showed IMO. 

 

Gulf

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_26.png

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1 minute ago, bristolri_wx said:

Wonder if 12z Euro will start showing Grace a little more than 0z did. GFS definitely more bullish on it at the moment…

I’d be shocked (and would toss it) if it didn’t come in stronger, at least for the next 48 hours. It should continue to organize before PR.

After that TBD but that organization should tick it northward enough to miss much of DR/Haiti.

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11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’d be shocked (and would toss it) if it didn’t come in stronger, at least for the next 48 hours. It should continue to organize before PR.

After that TBD but that organization should tick it northward enough to miss much of DR/Haiti.

If this goes north of Hispaniola it maybe go time for S FL. I’m not convinced it clears most of  Hispaniola Coast but Fred going further west seems to have left a better environment in Bahamas if Grace can “take advantage”

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20 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Shredded 

Elsa, Fred, and Grace (probably) not too long from now.

That said, the other two managed a respectable recovery so it’s not out of the realm of possibility Grace does too, but high ceiling talk which I’ve admittedly been leading is off the table for now.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This is total bullshit...

If "Fred" is a fuggin TS that thing NE of Bermuda's a category 2 hurricane, then -

I’m not sure what’s happened the past 2-3 years with NHC with the designations of some of these storms

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Huh? Fred is absolutely a TS per recon data. Grace though has basically been an sharp wave from the recon flight yesterday to the recon flight that just ended. :lol: 

the impetus of snark is for the Bermuda thing... not the other way around

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Paging @STILL N OF PIKE

Future Henri looks good for some swells. 

9 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Regardless of the direct US landfall threat this will be a prolific swell producer for the east coast. As it’s prime beach season the rip current threat will be real. Offshore hurricanes have killed dozens of people at east coast beaches over the years. 

 

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Paging @STILL N OF PIKE

Future Henri looks good for some swells. 

 

Ahhhhhh, I was just going to post about that in here. The current track forecast will lead to a period of captured fetch during the middle of the forecast. That and proximity will lead to bigger swells then one would think from a smallish tropical storm. Any increase in intensity will lead to a pretty sizable swell event. Similar to what we saw with 95’s Felix, the last true heart of the summer beach season prolific swell producer.

Generally our hurricane produced dangerous swell events happen in September after the summer crowds and resultant tourists that cannot swim have gone for the summer. 

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Henri has consistently been tracking south of most guidance, mainly due to them keeping it too weak. This has led to adjustments further west with track over time. Still low risk for a direct impact on the US east coast from NC to New England, but needs to be monitored. pic.twitter.com/WrzE3bWOAG
-- Yaakov Cantor (@yconsor) August 17, 2021

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Models definitely improved the swell outlook on last runs, thou euro was most modest with Henri development 

 

looks like the gfs sort of gives Henri a shot in the arm of additional “energy” sat am and Ukie was also significantly stronger.

windy.com is a very cool site for swell , just click waves on right side of screen and then scroll thru the different model output . You can adjust a point by clicking and monitor the predicted size

 

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