July 2021

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

All measures are important in providing a full picture of the climate. Outside of the increasingly dense “forest” in Central Park mean summer high temperatures are rising.

But we are not getting the kind of extremes places like Seattle are getting.  I'm rather disappointed in the summer here, we haven't had an extreme summer like 2010 since then.  Maybe that will end up being the 1995-96 of summers?

 

[bluewave]

45 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But we are not getting the kind of extremes places like Seattle are getting.  I'm rather disappointed in the summer here, we haven't had an extreme summer like 2010 since then.  Maybe that will end up being the 1995-96 of summers?

 

Much of what you are getting at is determined by wind direction since we live on the coast. LGA essentially tied its 2010 JJA average high temperature last year. But since the flow was more onshore, JFK couldn’t. We finally got more westerly flow in June when Newark got the new all-time June high of 103°. Corona Queens also made to 103° away from the sea breeze. But the westerly flow couldn’t make it down to the coast. For westerly flow to make it to places like JFK and ISP, the ridge needs to centered over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This summer has seen a spilt between the WAR and Rockies Ridge. The last several summers have featured a dominant WAR. This allows a much wetter pattern for higher humidity heat. So we have had numerous top 10 summers for heat and individual summer months since 2015. An all-time summer maximum high temperature generally requires a severe drought in the source region of the heat like Seattle just experienced. The last all-time summer max for us was the 108° at Newark in July of 2011. That historic heat originated over the record drought of the Southern Plains. 

[SACRUS]

80/72 and mostly cloudy with peaks of sunshine with fast moving clouds.  Still a bit unsettled as the front moves through so scattered showers, and storms.  Front will likely fully clear and earlier concerns of a cloudier monday look to be alleviated.  Western ridge means business and will bake the western US Rockies and Plains.  Tuesday (7/20) and Wednesday (7-21)flatter western flow could push the warmer spots to 90 before front comes through wed.  Truughing into the northeast Thu (7/22) into next weekend and despite the lower heights hot air from the west pushes east.  It looks like when we can flatten the flow or pop heights we can get some heat into the area but it'll be a fine line between near normal / cooler than normal (dry) and some stronger heat next weekend into the week of 7/26.  Beyond there the western atlantic ridge is expanding west as we close out the month.  Western heat  - trough into the GL, warm - hot humd pattern may return to start next month.  Should these ridges link, then its off to the races 2001 style, but thats way out there.  Best to bet on any dry periods being brief for now and bias warm once  to next or past next weekend

[SACRUS]

Monthly rain totals (so far through 7/17):

 

NYC: 9.16
EWR: 7.81
TEB: 6.62
LGA: 6.03
TTN: 5.41
JFK: 4.07
ISP: 4.66

[bluewave]

JFK is on track for the first 6 year stretch of 10 or more days reaching  a 75° or higher dew point. 
 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=161&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=JFK&var=max_dwpf&dir=aoa&thres=75&month=all&year=2021&dpi=100&_fmt=js

 

 

[Stormlover74]

Actually feels somewhat tolerable outside 

[SACRUS]

Dewpoints dropping from the lower 70s this morning now closer to the 62-65 range.  Also, more pokes of sunshine than otherwise would have expected.  Not a bad day.

[SACRUS]

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif

 

[SACRUS]

Both 2012, 2013 were in the midst of some record heat today/yesterday.  2011 as well.

[Eduardo]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Dewpoints dropping from the lower 70s this morning now closer to the 62-65 range.  Also, more pokes of sunshine than otherwise would have expected.  Not a bad day.

It’s amazing how much of a difference that 10-degree dewpoint drop makes!  Feels great outside, even though it’s still pretty moist!

[donsutherland1]

10 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

But we are not getting the kind of extremes places like Seattle are getting.  I'm rather disappointed in the summer here, we haven't had an extreme summer like 2010 since then.  Maybe that will end up being the 1995-96 of summers?

 

What happened in the Pacific Northwest was unprecedented. There will be extreme heat in our region at some point. Things are warming and eventually it will happen. I would be surprised if it didn’t happen this decade.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and pleasantly warm. Temperatures will again surge into the upper 80s and lower 90s on Tuesday and Wednesday before the next cold front crosses the region.

In the long-range, August could wind up warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal based on the evolution of the MJO. The MJO was in Phase 1 with an amplitude between 1.500 and 2.000 on multiple days during the June 20-30 period. There were 8 prior cases similar to 2021. mean temperature for August was 77.1° following such cases. The 1991-20 mean temperature for was 76.0° for August. 88% of the August cases were warmer than the 1991-20 mean temperatures. Early prospects for a very warm second half of July have diminished on account of the MJO's having moved back into Phase 2 from Phase 3.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around July 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.13°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August.

The SOI was +17.30 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.791 today.

On July 16 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.995 (RMM). The July 15-adjusted amplitude was 0.970 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 65% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.8° (0.7° below normal).

 

[SACRUS]

7/18:

EWR: 86
LGA: 86
JFK: 85
TEB: 85
ACY: 85
BLM: 84
NYC: 84
ISP: 83
New Brnswck: 83
PHL: 80
TTN: 79

[JustinRP37]

11 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

But we are not getting the kind of extremes places like Seattle are getting.  I'm rather disappointed in the summer here, we haven't had an extreme summer like 2010 since then.  Maybe that will end up being the 1995-96 of summers?

 

It will always be easier to get hotter with drier air, hence Seattle. 

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, bluewave said:

Much of what you are getting at is determined by wind direction since we live on the coast. LGA essentially tied its 2010 JJA average high temperature last year. But since the flow was more onshore, JFK couldn’t. We finally got more westerly flow in June when Newark got the new all-time June high of 103°. Corona Queens also made to 103° away from the sea breeze. But the westerly flow couldn’t make it down to the coast. For westerly flow to make it to places like JFK and ISP, the ridge needs to centered over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This summer has seen a spilt between the WAR and Rockies Ridge. The last several summers have featured a dominant WAR. This allows a much wetter pattern for higher humidity heat. So we have had numerous top 10 summers for heat and individual summer months since 2015. An all-time summer maximum high temperature generally requires a severe drought in the source region of the heat like Seattle just experienced. The last all-time summer max for us was the 108° at Newark in July of 2011. That historic heat originated over the record drought of the Southern Plains. 

That's why I'm wondering if the kind of extremely high temps like we saw in 2010 and 2011 is going to happen less often now in the summer because climate change has made the WAR much stronger and its influence has extended further north.  So maybe we're destined to have a Florida type climate with subtropical summers while the West is where the record high temps will be with all that drought?

So I could see our new modified climate consisting of record high temps in the fall and winter and then much rainier and much more humid springs and summers with lots of extremely high dew points and high mins and higher than normal highs, but not the kind of extremes that give us record highs (except for when the record highs are in the low or mid 90s).

 

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

It will always be easier to get hotter with drier air, hence Seattle. 

yeah and may I also add that hot and dry is a lot healthier than hot and humid.  When it's hot and dry I have much less breathing issues and no allergies while it's painful for me when it's hot and humid and the bugs multiply like crazy.

Actually it doesn't even have to be hot, just very humid with temps in the 70s is unhealthy, with poor air quality and all its issues.  Water vapor is a pollutant.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

What happened in the Pacific Northwest was unprecedented. There will be extreme heat in our region at some point. Things are warming and eventually it will happen. I would be surprised if it didn’t happen this decade.

I see it more likely in the fall and winter rather than spring and summer because of our subtropical rain forest type of rainfall pattern now lol.  Could you imagine December 2015 type extremes happening in July?  One can only dream.....

Of course the temperatures can't ever be that far above normal in the summer, but I was thinking more along the lines of standard deviation.

 

[wdrag]

 

Tuesday night or a bit more likely midday Wed: BAD timing keeps me low profile on this if somehow timing improves, I'd go for a SVR thread.  Instab parameters, esp TT are increasing (lower 50's).   Down here in our subforum I know it's pushing it for Wed, . but am thinking a bit more about NJ/LI as SVR risk Noon-4P..sort of early in the day & sfc cnv not the greatest look but Marginal risk may need to be added somewhere down in the southern part of the subforum in future projections for Wed. For now continue just monitoring for myself. 

[CIK62]

NB.   The GFS is undergoing treatment again.    It has 7 90's in the next 10 days------the EURO/CMC have none between them.   

Little rain till the 25th/26th.

The next 8 days are averaging 82degs.,(73/91), or +4.

Month to date is  76.4[-1.0].       Should be 78.1[+0.6] by the 27th.

71*(85%RH) here at 6am, scattered overcast.           Reached 84* about 6pm.

[bluewave]

The big weather swings pattern continues. After portions of New England had their warmest June on record, they will now be the center of the cooler pattern. Only the 3rd time that Boston had lower July average  temperatures than June.

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Jun	Jul	Season
2021	74.4	71.2	72.8
1976	73.4	72.9	73.2
1930	72.4	72.8	72.6
1994	71.9	77.5	74.7
1949	71.6	76.3	73.9
1957	71.3	74.1	72.7
2001	71.1	69.9	70.5

[SRRTA22]

I  this weather right now kind of hoping we can dry out a bit

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will become partly to mostly sunny and warm. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region. A few locations could see upper 80s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 84°

Newark: 88°

Philadelphia: 87°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 85.3°; 15-Year: 86.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 87.2°; 15-Year: 88.6°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 88.1°; 15-Year: 89.1°

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and very warm.

[donsutherland1]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I see it more likely in the fall and winter rather than spring and summer because of our subtropical rain forest type of rainfall pattern now lol.  Could you imagine December 2015 type extremes happening in July?  One can only dream.....

Of course the temperatures can't ever be that far above normal in the summer, but I was thinking more along the lines of standard deviation.

 

What happened in Seattle was just over 4 sigma above the normal high temperature. The 108F peak temperature there would be the equivalent of 112F in Central Park. 

[dmillz25]

When was last July below avg temp wise? 2009? 

[psv88]

6 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

When was last July below avg temp wise? 2009? 

Which was based on the 1970-2000 numbers…now we 1990-2020

[dmillz25]

Just now, psv88 said:

Which was based on the 1970-2000 numbers…now we 1990-2020

Still feels good honestly but I know we’re going to have humidity galore still

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

What happened in Seattle was just over 4 sigma above the normal high temperature. The 108F peak temperature there would be the equivalent of 112F in Central Park. 

Don what about December 2015 for us, how far above normal was that?  And conversely, the cold of February 2015?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, dmillz25 said:

Still feels good honestly but I know we’re going to have humidity galore still

I hate humidity too, we need to do something about it.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The big weather swings pattern continues. After portions of New England had their warmest June on record, they will now be the center of the cooler pattern. Only the 3rd time that Boston had lower July average  temperatures than June.

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Jun	Jul	Season
2021	74.4	71.2	72.8
1976	73.4	72.9	73.2
1930	72.4	72.8	72.6
1994	71.9	77.5	74.7
1949	71.6	76.3	73.9
1957	71.3	74.1	72.7
2001	71.1	69.9	70.5

Could we have a cooler July avg than June too?

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Could we have a cooler July avg than June too?

 

July has been much warmer in our area than Boston. 
 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Jun	Jul	Season
Mean	73.5	79.9	76.7
2021	76.2	79.5	77.9
2020	74.4	80.8	77.6
2019	72.7	80.6	76.7
2018	72.1	78.2	75.2
2017	72.7	77.3	75.0
2016	72.9	79.9	76.4
2015	72.0	79.0	75.5
2014	72.8	77.0	74.9
2013	73.3	80.9	77.1
2012	72.4	80.8	76.6
2011	74.5	82.7	78.6
2010	76.2	82.3	79.3

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Jun	Jul	Season
Mean	73.6	80.2	76.9
2021	75.6	78.0	76.8
2020	75.9	82.9	79.4
2019	72.8	81.5	77.2
2018	72.9	79.8	76.4
2017	73.6	78.1	75.9
2016	73.6	81.1	77.4
2015	71.3	79.2	75.3
2014	72.5	77.0	74.8
2013	74.0	81.2	77.6
2012	72.9	80.4	76.7
2011	72.7	80.4	76.6
2010	76.0	82.8	79.4