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Late June Heavy Rain/Severe Threats


Hoosier
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00z NAM continues with a bullseye of at least 15"

Gotta say, I have been watching models for 20+ years and I can't remember too many times when a model showed those kind of amounts on that time scale in the Midwest.  A hurricane near the coast, sure.  And it has been on multiple runs.

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10 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

this feels like a spartman thread.

a lot of useless maps.


.

For precise details, sure.  But as mentioned earlier, we are seeing a signal for really big amounts on much of the guidance, CAM and non-CAM alike.  And I think it's useful to illustrate that as long as every run of every cycle isn't getting posted.

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47 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

RGEM went nuts and drops 6-9" of rain just southwest of the QC tomorrow night alone. :blink:

Go ahead and throw out the RGEM.  It doesn't even see the MCS blowing up in Nebraska, which will dive into Missouri by morning.

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Hydrologic Outlook
ILC017-019-021-023-029-035-039-041-045-057-095-107-113-115-123-125-
129-137-139-143-147-167-169-171-173-175-179-183-203-241700-

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
359 AM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

...Heavy Rainfall and Flooding Potential Tonight through this
Weekend...

A prolonged periods of showers and thunderstorms tonight through
this weekend will likely bring widespread rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches, with locally higher amounts possible along and north of
I-72. Heaviest rainfall rates from thunderstorms could exceed 2
inches per hour. This amount of rainfall could lead to flooding in
streams and urban areas as well as in low lying areas prone to
flooding.

CONFIDENCE STATEMENT: Confidence is medium to high on the storm
system impacting the region. Confidence on the exact locations of
heaviest rainfall and impacts of flooding across central Illinois
remains low at this time.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: If you reside in a flood prone location you
should monitor forecasts through this weekend on this developing
hazardous weather situation. Now is the time to think about
preparedness and plan for impacts in the event the heavy rainfall
and flooding materialize
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Usually, unless there is a strong system with a LLJ, the outflows sag south and the heavy rains fall south of the models...like the HRRR is showing

It is very rare you have the models dumping this much rain around here...I have seen see  it in southern IL/KY into the mid south in winter/early spring flooding events near the OH river into TN...and of course tropical systems

July 1996 deluge fell during a drought if a recall correctly

NE IL is in drought but areas SW near me are not

image.png.c76c58d62b34e5b84dd7cd7aa9253345.png

 

 

 

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29 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

Usually, unless there is a strong system with a LLJ, the outflows sag south and the heavy rains fall south of the models...like the HRRR is showing

It is very rare you have the models dumping this much rain around here...I have seen see  it in southern IL/KY into the mid south in winter/early spring flooding events near the OH river into TN...and of course tropical systems

July 1996 deluge fell during a drought if a recall correctly

NE IL is in drought but areas SW near me are not

image.png.c76c58d62b34e5b84dd7cd7aa9253345.png

 

 

 

I agree. Heavy rain events in our region are almost always modeled too far north

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