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Late June Heavy Rain/Severe Threats


Hoosier
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4 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

All this talk of land tsunamis is great and all, but how do we stand in the severe/chasing department? 

Latest NAM is a lot farther south with the favorable parameters (closer in line with GFS) on Friday afternoon. Gonna have to be ready to fly south as soon as I get off work if it looks chaseworthy.

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From KIND

Long Term...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021

Potential for serious to life threatening heavy rain and
flash flooding this weekend into next week as deep moisture advects
northward ahead of a warm front over the lower Mississippi Valley
and central Plains and a cold front over the northern Plains. The
warm front is expected to lift northeast across central Indiana
Friday as the cold front approaches from the northwest. Meanwhile, a
Canadian trough will dig southeast out of central Canada and result
in southwest flow aloft over the Ohio Valley. The cold front will
become aligned parallel to the upper flow as the front moves to just
northwest of central Indiana this weekend. This will likely result
in the front stalling out nearby with waves of low pressure moving
along it. The persistent synoptic forcing will tap into the deep
moisture, seen in precipitable water amounts greater than 2 inches,
and instability and result in widespread thunderstorms starting
Friday night. The alignment of the front with the upper flow will
bring the threat for training and the potential for several inches
of rain to fall over a widespread area this weekend into next week.

The highest PoPs will start off over the northern Wabash Valley and
gradually spread southeast over the weekend into next week.

WPC is advertising over half a foot of storm total QPF over the
Wabash Valley by next Tuesday with lesser but still impressive
amounts over southeastern sections.

With persistent warm advection, temperatures still look like they
could make it to the lower 80s each day despite the extensive
convection.
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Models seem to be all over the place on where the most conducive environment will be Thursday and Friday afternoons. For quite a few runs central Nebraska looked pretty good (out of range for me unless I took tomorrow/Friday off). Now this morning's 12Z NAM suggests south-central to eastern Iowa (LIES!!!) to north-central and northeast Missouri (yuck!) and even west-central and northwest Illinois. Meanwhile the 3KM NAM highlights more eastern Kansas and west-central Missouri (likewise out of my range).

NAM also paints a rather interesting/perhaps even ominous environment across parts of west-central Illinois (Jacksonville/Beardstown/Springfield area, roughly ground zero of the December 2018 outbreak) Friday afternoon/evening.

nam_2021062312_057_39.85--89.99.png

nam_2021062312_060_39.86--90.54.png

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24 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

WPC backed off rhe 7"+ area aside from a small blip South of Chicago

 

Edit: Unless this morning's rain in that area was the reasoning for the 7+ totals.

 

 

 

739104901_p168i(1).gif.e1d3b275482848379035f940aaf0ef01.gif

That looks a bit broadbrush.  In reality I bet we see area(s) of embedded higher amounts, but the issue is that it's practically impossible to pinpoint that this far out.

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There's an emerging bust forecast from a couple models, at least for Thursday and Thursday night.  Unfortunately, it looks very plausible.  DVN is talking about this possibility as well.  If a big MCS dives down through Missouri Thursday morning, then the Thursday evening MCS may fire up in Missouri again, along the boundary.  If that happens, locations to the north will be in a major screw zone.

Much of Iowa may need to wait til Friday night when a disturbance rides up through the state.  Hopefully, the Missouri convection will die off before then.

Here's the WPC forecast through Friday morning.

wpc_qpf_048h_p.us_mw.png

Here's the HRRR

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

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It's impressive to see the CAMs and the non-CAMs/globals showing the potential for a swath or two of extreme rain amounts.  They are models with different capabilities/parametrizations, and yet both are suggesting the possibility that something pretty high-end could unfold somewhere.    

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