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Central PA - Summer 2021


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18z 3k NAM not backing down, in fact it increased the already impressive bulk shear values and storm relative helicity values from it's previous run. And my God, SCP of 20.2 and STP of 6.2. I know the NAM is notorious for overhyping these types of things, but look no further than what we're seeing in the SE today for what could be instore for us tomorrow

nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_31.pngnam4km_2021081718_029_40.36--76.92.png

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think for the Eastern 1/2 or maybe Eastern 2/3 of the state, the flood watch is for torrential downpours with convective lines vs. being in the way of Fred's actual shield. 

I think even I'm too east for anything from Fred. I'll prob have to get rain from the afternoon line, and that's hit/miss as always (though likely a hit as it looks solid)

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6 minutes ago, canderson said:

I think even I'm too east for anything from Fred. I'll prob have to get rain from the afternoon line, and that's hit/miss as always (though likely a hit as it looks solid)

I keep trying to watch my words as technically the Pwats and moisture that will be conducive to what could be multiple afternoon lines of storms really is 'Fred Related' so I keep saying Fred's shield.   And except for the initial punch that hits the LSV first thing tomorrow, the shield gets no where near anyone in the eastern half of the state, until in the Northern areas, on most prog's right now.   Fred still shows that stop and jump east look up there but much later than yesterday. 

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47 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I keep trying to watch my words as technically the Pwats and moisture that will be conducive to what could be multiple afternoon lines of storms really is 'Fred Related' so I keep saying Fred's shield.   And except for the initial punch that hits the LSV first thing tomorrow, the shield gets no where near anyone in the eastern half of the state, until in the Northern areas, on most prog's right now.   Fred still shows that stop and jump east look up there but much later than yesterday. 

I’m making a prediction that either Adams or Franklin counties score a tornado warning tomorrow.  I remember in tropical events over the years where storms with rotation like to run the south mountain ridge up from Frederick County.   

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33 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

I’m making a prediction that either Adams or Franklin counties score a tornado warning tomorrow.  I remember in tropical events over the years where storms with rotation like to run the south mountain ridge up from Frederick County.   

All in from Cashtown.  But I just want rain (only 1/3" so far the last few days) so make it Adams. 

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16 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

All in from Cashtown.  But I just want rain (only 1/3" so far the last few days) so make it Adams. 

I just want rain myself.   Managed 0.42” at Adams course.   Rooting for at least 1” tomorrow.   Amazing the difference in how green it is in the the Dover / Manchester area of York county compared to our area.  

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6 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

I just want rain myself.   Managed 0.42” at Adams course.   Rooting for at least 1” tomorrow.   Amazing the difference in how green it is in the the Dover / Manchester area of York county compared to our area.  

Yea, that is the mow twice a week area. The yards in our areas are damaged for years.  

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7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Good catch.  The put a HWO out for it. 

Franklin PA- 655 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 ...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Franklin County through 730 PM EDT... At 655 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Greencastle, moving northeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Chambersburg, Greencastle, St. Thomas, Marion, Claylick, Williamson and Upton. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. 

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11 hours ago, pasnownut said:

For some of us the takeaway is that summer is on its last legs, no matter what heat wave may be showing up.  Whatever the heat, the days are shortening, and nights are starting to cool a bit (although sticky still seems to be haning tough). 

I'm down w/ whatever summer has left.  I'll deal like I've been, and just roll w/ it. 

My time is coming.....

Exactly! This is well said good sir!

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27 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Don’t worry, you and Cashtown will jackpot in the Winter and hopefully revive your grass in time for next Spring.

Thanks but the dirt spots will unfortunately stick around for a bit unless I plant more seed and even that will take a summer to catch on. Canderson is shaking his fist and rum and coke at me right now and yelling clover.    But we did have a lot of snow this winter.  Helped avoid any well issues this summer. 

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I should be able to make some obs and discussion as this unfolds tonight and tomorrow. Since I literally sat on the edge of the precip with Isaias pretty close to this time last summer, it’s been awhile since I’ve had a decent tropical remnant event come right through here.

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Where the most shear and CAPE overlap...

bs06.us_ne.png

mlcape.us_ne.png

Leads to parameters like this:

stp.us_ne.png

scp.us_ne.png

And ultimately the chance for something like this:

nam4km_2021081800_024_40.38--77.02.png

 

I would never call for tornados, that's something you simply can't do. Look at that severe event a few weeks ago that looked great for tornados: it ended up missing our area but smacked the Jersey and Philly area. Simply put, every CAM is pointing towards lots of shear and helicity with the remnants of Fred tomorrow. In the warm sector, discrete rotating cells are a real possibility. There were 13 tornado reports out of the SE today -> That's heading this way tomorrow (does it remain as potent or weaken?). Each NAM and HRRR run today kept to the idea of potential tornados tomorrow, the scariest part being the timing leaning towards dusk and overnight. In 24 hours we'll see if they had the right idea or not. 

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