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Central PA - Summer 2021


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2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah thats hard to bet against for sure, but even if 1/2 of what the GFS depicts verifies, many lawns across the state will approve, or come out of dormancy....lol (and sorry). 

I too have been lucky enough to get the rains JUST in the nick of time when my lawn was starting to stress.  Been looking better every week for the last few (so much that I may put that fertilizer on this weekend).  Been waiting for the dry period to look like its officially behind us.  Me thinks that's the case.

 

I agree that the chances of this turning into an extreme drought (for those under drought designations) is pretty slim.   Cashtown's figures for Adams county are pretty bad though.    He has a negative 4" departure over the last 30 days. 

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

I agree that the chances of this turning into an extreme drought (for those under drought designations) is pretty slim.   Cashtown's figures for Adams county are pretty bad though.    He has a negative 4" departure over the last 30 days. 

Do you have the euro qpf map for the next 3 days 

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CTP not backing down tonight 

Latest model guidance continues to highlight the most widespread rain/heaviest amts should fall tonight, as a potent southerly LLJ lifts north across the region, overrunning the approaching sfc warm front. A serly llvl flow and nearly saturated sfc-500mb layer supports categorical POPs and efficient rainfall production over most of the area tonight, with the highest POPS along the spine of the Appalachians, where orographic forcing will be the greatest. Modest instability, combined with anomalously high and still increasing pwats and forcing at nose of low level jet, could result in embedded thunderstorms with torrential downpours tonight. The 00/12z HREF supports this potential, with some members indicating spot amounts in the 3-4 inch range across the southwest/scent part of the forecast area by 12Z Tuesday. Expect the focus of convection to shift into the central third of the CWA late tonight with passage of low level jet.

 

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8 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

CTP not backing down tonight 

Latest model guidance continues to highlight the most widespread rain/heaviest amts should fall tonight, as a potent southerly LLJ lifts north across the region, overrunning the approaching sfc warm front. A serly llvl flow and nearly saturated sfc-500mb layer supports categorical POPs and efficient rainfall production over most of the area tonight, with the highest POPS along the spine of the Appalachians, where orographic forcing will be the greatest. Modest instability, combined with anomalously high and still increasing pwats and forcing at nose of low level jet, could result in embedded thunderstorms with torrential downpours tonight. The 00/12z HREF supports this potential, with some members indicating spot amounts in the 3-4 inch range across the southwest/scent part of the forecast area by 12Z Tuesday. Expect the focus of convection to shift into the central third of the CWA late tonight with passage of low level jet.

 

They are not backing down that is a for sure.

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Or maybe you are bubbler since we both like stats and posted at the same exact time?   AND we are both rain starved.   Fred goes much farther East than the GFS (on the euro). 

Oh my, now you got me thinking......Bubbler is Snowman, Snowman is Bubbler! *for the Ace Ventura fans out there*

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34 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

18Z HRRR looks like Fred is going to get to WV then block and move off to the east.  Very winter storm like for stuff we have seen the last few years. 3K Nam still wants to make this a Pitt flooder. 

Radar building to the south.  Someone is getting wet tonight.   I just need .50” at the course and I’ll be happy 

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1 hour ago, Cashtown_Coop said: 

The 00/12z HREF supports this potential, with some members indicating spot amounts in the 3-4 inch range across the southwest/scent part of the forecast area by 12Z Tuesday. Expect the focus of convection to shift into the central third of the CWA late tonight with passage of low level jet.

 

That should make you happy no?  Sounds like you and bubbles are in short range crosshairs. sure hope so.  

 

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19 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Dews have been rising nicely here 78/72  . A nice SE wind with high pwats.  Radar actually looks intriguing for the m/d line crew . Mesoanalysis is slowly improving.  Hopefully a couple downpours this evening .

 

I'd be lying if I said it wasn't awesome working outside today .

I think we see some deamplification of that line soon but you, I, Cash, etc...may still get the downpours first.   The rain is what matters to me :-). 

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1 hour ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

As I’ve gotten older, I root for days of snow cover equally as much as enjoying the big 12”+ storm.    Give me 2-4” snows and snowpack.   

Preach it brotha.....

days and days of white.....speaking of...were about 5-8 weeks away from hopefully seeing the first blues showing up on the models....

 

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