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Central PA - Summer 2021


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As of now, just a slight conditional 2% risk from the SPC, which I would agree with. It won't be a widespread event and is highly dependent on track among other factors too. But absolutely worth keeping an eye on, any time you have a tropical system (even a remnant one) track to your west, you have a shot of tornados.

day2probotlk_0600_torn.gif

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27 minutes ago, Newman said:

As of now, just a slight conditional 2% risk from the SPC, which I would agree with. It won't be a widespread event and is highly dependent on track among other factors too. But absolutely worth keeping an eye on, any time you have a tropical system (even a remnant one) track to your west, you have a shot of tornados.

day2probotlk_0600_torn.gif

Excellent info Newman!  It's funny you bring all that up about the tropical systems to the west and whatnot because I was having the same thoughts, how even if we are likely to miss out on the main slug of precipitation we'll be in a prime spot in the warm sector for some discrete severe potential.  Certainly worth keeping an eye on.  Excellent analysis with the Skews and Hodos, big double thumbs-up for you sir.

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Thank you all! As a met student, I try my best to learn on my own and equally try to convey the information to the public in a detailed and scientific, yet clear and understanding way. I'm just here to help everyone stay informed, plus I love sharing info as well.

Just as another note, there have been some tornado warnings down in the south this morning with "radar confirmed" tornado messages. Plus some confirmed tornados and damage across Georgia yesterday with Fred. We'll see if that all can or will make it's way up here tomorrow. Now to play devils advocate, its also very possible the primary low tracks too far east and many end up with 1. Just some moderate rains or 2. A brief period of rain and nothing after. In a time of the year when the weather seems to slow down and eyes turn towards the tropics, it's nice having something to watch.

wrf-arw2_ref_frzn_neus_38.png

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7 minutes ago, canderson said:

Ummmm I’m not seeing all this rain being forecast actually hitting the LSV. Am I looking at things incorrectly? It’s damn near sunny out now it’s so bright. 

That's what I was talking about in my previous post. One to two inch forecast and near nothing on radar and broken cloud cover. I'm not seeing it, either.

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10 minutes ago, Voyager said:

That's what I was talking about in my previous post. One to two inch forecast and near nothing on radar and broken cloud cover. I'm not seeing it, either.

I was thinking tomorrow is the best possibility for widespread heavy rain.  Did not see much modeled today.  And if the recent trends are right it may not even be all that wide spread vs. a squall line like effect.  

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Here is Lebanon County Weather:

Good Tuesday afternoon.
Soaking rain is forthcoming for the region.
Dew points are in the middle 70's and as a result the humidity values are at extreme levels. It will feel like you are in a tropical rain forest over the next few days. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and into this evening and will continue into the overnight. Heavy rain can be expected in the strongest of cells. The set up we are in is text book for a very brief spin up (weak small tornado) to develop as well. We will be monitoring this closely.
Wednesday looks to be a washout as the remains of Fred move over our region. Right now we think a nice soaking 1-2 inches of rain is likely across the county. The chance for a minor spin up is also on the table again as the remains of Fred move overhead.
Thursday will remain unsettled and very humid with morning showers ending and then clearing by the mid afternoon. Temps will again rebound to either side of 80 degrees.
 
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20 minutes ago, canderson said:

Ummmm I’m not seeing all this rain being forecast actually hitting the LSV. Am I looking at things incorrectly? It’s damn near sunny out now it’s so bright. 

any breaks in the clouds now are going to let the atmosphere destabilize some which the afd talked about for southern pa.  see if anything pops by 2 or 3

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he National Weather Service in Binghamton has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of central New York and northeast
  Pennsylvania, including the following areas, in central New York,
  Broome, Chemung, Chenango, Delaware, Otsego, Sullivan and Tioga.
  In northeast Pennsylvania, Bradford, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Northern
  Wayne, Pike, Southern Wayne, Susquehanna and Wyoming.

* From late tonight through Thursday morning.

* Scattered heavy rain showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are
  expected out ahead of the remnants of Tropical Storm Fred early
  Wednesday morning. The remnants of Fred will push through
  Wednesday into early Thursday morning. Localized rainfall amounts
  over 5 inches will be possible and this would lead to flash
  flooding in some areas.
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7 minutes ago, paweather said:

Some lite rain here.

Radar is telling me to look to tomorrow.  EC has backed off its blocking/transfer scenario and now joined the other models in taking the SLP up into West Central PA.  Totals below though for most in the LSV at over 1", a good 1/3 of that comes in the next 24 hours with random convection so general a 1" rainfall from Fred for many in the LSV with a dry slot in the S/E of the area.  This does continue to leave the severe possibilities in play vs a simple tropical rainer. 

image.png.acaa406c15a8a1ee64c602c228502b60.png

 

 

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

12Z Euro is even less warm than the GFS for the 80's or low 9's period next week.   

Fantasy GFS looked solid too. I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect afternoon highs in the 60s with low humidity, but maybe we can start fading into fall.

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11 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Fantasy GFS looked solid too. I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect afternoon highs in the 60s with low humidity, but maybe we can start fading into fall.

I am just trying to quell the heat wave talk as I do not see it modeled.  Maybe someone is forecasting it which is good if so...

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3 minutes ago, paweather said:

Tomorrow should be interesting. Let's hope for some rain in the gauges. 

Paw Paw to Pillow should be on the watch for this possibility.   3K also misses LSV with the rain shield but like he HRRR does bring a decent shot of rain through tomorrow just after dawn (more favoring Western 1/2 of LSV). 

 

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