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Central PA - Summer 2021


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3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I was looking at the 3K, should have specified.   12K seems to have a transfer scenario after 60...to the area you specified.

 

image.thumb.png.0bf611db9405a9bb01a31acfe7e15b6d.png

 

 

Ah, I see the remnants of Fred coming right through my backyard there. Funny enough, the QPF bullseye through 60 on the 3k is also in Union County, though it’s misleading. Convection out ahead of the main system.

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3 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Ah, I see the remnants of Fred coming right through my backyard there. Funny enough, the QPF bullseye through 60 on the 3k is also in Union County, though it’s misleading. Convection out ahead of the main system.

It very well could have had the center and heavy qpf transferring at 66 like 12K.    But a lot of the stuff in Central PA on the 3K is tonight like you mentioned. 

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

It very well could have had the center and heavy qpf transferring at 66 like 12K.    But a lot of the stuff in Central PA on the 3K is tonight like you mentioned. 

I’m not expecting a big precip event here and I know you’re not at this point in your desert microclimate, but you need it more than I do so push it east.

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1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

I’m not expecting a big precip event here and I know you’re not at this point in your desert microclimate, but you need it more than I do so push it east.

I am hopeful but know its not here until I am seeing it.  Yesterday's 12K NAM has that low just at the spot that I could get dry slotted and still does today.   I think almost all of PA has a chance of flash flooding today and tomorrow.   Maybe not far S/E. 

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13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I am hopeful but know its not here until I am seeing it.  Yesterday's 12K NAM has that low just at the spot that I could get dry slotted and still does today.   I think almost all of PA has a chance of flash flooding today and tomorrow.   Maybe not far S/E. 

It looks like a dreary week. Cool days, warm nights, lots of humidity. At least it gives the heat the boot for a few more days. 

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30 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

It looks like a dreary week. Cool days, warm nights, lots of humidity. At least it gives the heat the boot for a few more days. 

Yea, its not going to be a comfortable cool down.  GFS does have 2-3 90 degree days in the last half of the month now.  Nothing much above normal though.    I am pretty much done with summer.  Much of my travel plans for fall have been scuppered due to the new "issues" but I am going to enjoy it locally one way or another. 

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9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea, its not going to be a comfortable cool down.  GFS does have 2-3 90 degree days in the last half of the month now.  Nothing much above normal though.    I am pretty much done with summer.  Much of my travel plans for fall have been scuppered due to the new "issues" but I am going to enjoy it locally one way or another. 

Still hopeful in the fact that some of these runs have the cooler weather in fantasyland after the upcoming warmth. Also still have a trip to Cancun on my schedule the last week of October. I’m flying Delta. :lol:

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Fun week ahead, someone in the mid-state will cash in bigtime.

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Locally heavy rain could produce flooding in a few spots across
central Pennsylvania late today or tonight. The area most likely to
see torrential downpours will be the Laurel Highlands into the
central mountains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms could produce flooding in a few spots Tuesday
afternoon, mainly over the eastern half of Pennsylvania. The remnants
of Tropical Storm Fred may bring additional heavy downpours and the
threat of localized flooding on Wednesday.
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11 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Fun week ahead, someone in the mid-state will cash in bigtime.

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Locally heavy rain could produce flooding in a few spots across
central Pennsylvania late today or tonight. The area most likely to
see torrential downpours will be the Laurel Highlands into the
central mountains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms could produce flooding in a few spots Tuesday
afternoon, mainly over the eastern half of Pennsylvania. The remnants
of Tropical Storm Fred may bring additional heavy downpours and the
threat of localized flooding on Wednesday.

Sure seems to be focused on areas west of us, I'll be happy with anything we get honestly. I don't need much rain...I'm still mowing my yard at least twice a week. I mowed this past Thursday and while outside cooking last night I realized that it hardly looked like I had mowed at all. Grass is green and growing fast. 

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51 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Hopefully you can get a couple inches out of all of this over the next several days. 

Yes, thanks.  None of the models go anywhere near that but a storm could do the trick.  I am fairly far east though (parts of Cumberland county are west of me) so may not get much Fred action as of now. 

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15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yes, thanks.  None of the models go anywhere near that but a storm cold do the trick.  I am fairly far east though (parts of Cumberland county are west of me) so may not get much Fred action as of now. 

Well...WPC still insists that you get between 1.5-2"...so there's a chance. :) 

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1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Sure seems to be focused on areas west of us, I'll be happy with anything we get honestly. I don't need much rain...I'm still mowing my yard at least twice a week. I mowed this past Thursday and while outside cooking last night I realized that it hardly looked like I had mowed at all. Grass is green and growing fast. 

Agree with the focus being west of our area but we should still get in a couple good tussles with the rain gods.

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3 hours ago, TimB84 said:

It looks like a dreary week. Cool days, warm nights, lots of humidity. At least it gives the heat the boot for a few more days. 

12Z 3K still lays the wood on your guys then the low is blocked or transferred East across the state with torrential downpours for some.   Wed would be a very wet day for most of PA. 

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

12Z 3K still lays the wood on your guys then the low is blocked or transferred East across the state with torrential downpours for some.   Wed would be a very wet day for most of PA. 

3k says no wood for me........but we do get the shaft.........verbatim.:lol:

maybe we can give it a little blue pill...:lmao:

towards the end of the 12z 3k it looks to bring a little more tropical love to our region (if one focuses on SE locals of our area.  I'll be watching that in coming runs.

 

nam3km_apcpn_neus_18.png

 

 

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3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

3k says no wood for me........but we do get the shaft.........verbatim.:lol:

maybe we can give it a little blue pill...:lmao:

towards the end of the 12z 3k it looks to bring a little more tropical love to our region (if one focuses on SE locals of our area.  I'll be watching that in coming runs.

 

 

 

 

Yea the wood was to the west of the LSV for the most part.  Pitt rains.   GFS is not overly wet either but still a soaking for most.  Most of Fred well to the west. 

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14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea the wood was to the west of the LSV for the most part.  Pitt rains.   GFS is not overly wet either but still a soaking for most.  Most of Fred well to the west. 

Yeah I saw GFS and thought that much of the state would approve.  No big winners, but the east scores early and the west gets it from TS Fred.  Overall not a bad week qpf wise for many.

gfs_apcpn_neus_17.png

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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah I saw GFS and thought that much of the state would approve.  No big winners, but the east scores early and the West gets it from TS does get the best action from Fred.  Overall not a bad week qpf wise for many.

 

If seasonal trends mean anything, the West PA and North East LSV will win no matter what. 

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

If seasonal trends mean anything, the West PA and North East LSV will win no matter what. 

Yeah thats hard to bet against for sure, but even if 1/2 of what the GFS depicts verifies, many lawns across the state will approve, or come out of dormancy....lol (and sorry). 

I too have been lucky enough to get the rains JUST in the nick of time when my lawn was starting to stress.  Been looking better every week for the last few (so much that I may put that fertilizer on this weekend).  Been waiting for the dry period to look like its officially behind us.  Me thinks that's the case.

 

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