June 2021

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will be partly to mostly sunny and warmer. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most places. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 81°

Newark: 86°

Philadelphia: 82°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 79.7°; 15-Year: 79.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 81.8°; 15-Year: 81.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 83.2°; 15-Year: 83.4°

A warmer regime could begin to evolve late this week.

Out West, record-breaking heat will continue across the Southwest, including Phoenix. It remains likely that Phoenix will see its earliest 116° or above temperature on record. The unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. 

Daily Records for June 15:

Phoenix: 115°, 1896 and 1974 (Forecast: 115° to 119°) ***smoke could hold down the readings by 1°-2° from the model values***

Tucson: 110°, 1896 (Forecast: 112° to 116°)

*-Forecast range is 1 sigma below and above the forecast mean.

[bluewave]

10 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks this is more like it!  A lot of my favorite summers are in the high temp list.  2010 is still lapping the field though like Secretariat at the Belmont lol.  I wonder if those 90 and 95 and 100 day numbers from 2010 will ever be exceeded?

 

Look at how 2010 and 1983 are both miles ahead of the rest of the field for 90 degree highs, but 2010 puts some distance between it and 1983 even so.....

 

Do you also have a list of most 95+ and 100+ days for JFK too, Chris?

 

JFK set its record for 95° days back in 2010 at 10. They also tied for most 100° days at 3. The rainfall pattern in JJA 2010 was wet in the West and Central US and dry in the East. So we needed the dry pattern with more westerly flow to set all those heat records.

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95	Missing Count
1	2010	10	0
2	1963	8	0
3	2002	7	0
-	1999	7	0
-	1983	7	0
4	2013	6	0
-	1949	6	0
5	2012	5	0
-	1966	5	0
-	1955	5	2

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100	Missing Count
1	2010	3	0
-	1966	3	0
2	2011	2	0
-	1993	2	0
-	1983	2	0
-	1948	2	198
3	2013	1	0
-	1999	1	0
-	1972	1	0
-	1963	1	0
-	1957	1	1

 

[tek1972]

First measurable precip of the day here falling now.
Sky is really lighting up to the south over the ocean. Makes no sense why the Atlantic and the LI Sound do so much better with storms than LI itself.

I don't understand this either.
Why do storms die over Suffolk county, but just south over the cold Atlantic stay strong to severe?

Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk

[FPizz]

.15" yesterday/last night

[psv88]

Barely any rain yesterday 

[weathermedic]

Squeezed out .29 from the activity yesterday at my station.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

JFK set its record for 95° days back in 2010 at 10. They also tied for most 100° days at 3. The rainfall pattern in JJA 2010 was wet in the West and Central US and dry in the East. So we needed the dry pattern with more westerly flow to set all those heat records.

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95	Missing Count
1	2010	10	0
2	1963	8	0
3	2002	7	0
-	1999	7	0
-	1983	7	0
4	2013	6	0
-	1949	6	0
5	2012	5	0
-	1966	5	0
-	1955	5	2

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100	Missing Count
1	2010	3	0
-	1966	3	0
2	2011	2	0
-	1993	2	0
-	1983	2	0
-	1948	2	198
3	2013	1	0
-	1999	1	0
-	1972	1	0
-	1963	1	0
-	1957	1	1

 

I wonder what the heck happened in 1983 to set all those heat records at the same time as having the wettest year on record lol (it was JFK's wettest year on record too?)

 

Thanks for the list, those are some of my favorite summers!

1983 had 2 100 degree days at JFK and just 1 at NYC?

 

[lee59]

1 hour ago, tek1972 said:

I don't understand this either.
Why do storms die over Suffolk county, but just south over the cold Atlantic stay strong to severe?

Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk
 

I have sometimes thought about this but don't know if it has any truth. When a thunderstorm approaches a mountain, many times the mountain can weaken the storm and those on the Lee side don't get it so bad. Could New York city's tall skyscrapers have an impact on Long Island when storms come in from the West, in a similar way as a mountain.

[rclab]

17 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I have sometimes thought about this but don't know if it has any truth. When a thunderstorm approaches a mountain, many times the mountain can weaken the storm and those on the Lee side don't get it so bad. Could New York city's tall skyscrapers have an impact on Long Island when storms come in from the West, in a similar way as a mountain.

I remember a tv weather person, possibly Frank Field, commenting on how a line of storms seemed to split as they approached the city. That was 35+ years ago. I believe the number of 1000’ structures has increased since then. As always …

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I wonder what the heck happened in 1983 to set all those heat records at the same time as having the wettest year on record lol (it was JFK's wettest year on record too?)

 

Thanks for the list, those are some of my favorite summers!

1983 had 2 100 degree days at JFK and just 1 at NYC?

 

While it was wet here in 1983, the source region for all the heat just to our west was dry.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While it was wet here in 1983, the source region for all the heat just to our west was dry.

wow interesting, all the wet was along the coast.....and to my knowledge there weren't even any tropical cyclones for us that year.

 

[doncat]

0.52" yesterday and 0.18" since midnight.

[doncat]

Dew points look to be dropping well down thru the 40's tomorrow and staying there for a couple days... can't beat that for summer.

 

[uncle W]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

JFK set its record for 95° days back in 2010 at 10. They also tied for most 100° days at 3. The rainfall pattern in JJA 2010 was wet in the West and Central US and dry in the East. So we needed the dry pattern with more westerly flow to set all those heat records.

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95	Missing Count
1	2010	10	0
2	1963	8	0
3	2002	7	0
-	1999	7	0
-	1983	7	0
4	2013	6	0
-	1949	6	0
5	2012	5	0
-	1966	5	0
-	1955	5	2

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100	Missing Count
1	2010	3	0
-	1966	3	0
2	2011	2	0
-	1993	2	0
-	1983	2	0
-	1948	2	198
3	2013	1	0
-	1999	1	0
-	1972	1	0
-	1963	1	0
-	1957	1	1

 

NYC was only 94 in 1972...98 in 1963...1963 had some very cool days in between heat waves...Aug/Sept 63 was on of the coolest on record...

[SACRUS]

0.31 in the bucket yesterday after a high of 82.  Tremendous stretch of weather the next 4 days, mostly sunny and warm (seasonal).  Saturday depending on storms and clouds brings the next shot of 90.  Heat factory into the Rockies and the southwest deserts producing many records early in the season.  Pieces of that heat will expand east into the the middle of next week.  ECM more adamant with ridging by the middle and end of next week 6/24.  

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

wow interesting, all the wet was along the coast.....and to my knowledge there weren't even any tropical cyclones for us that year.

 

1983 was our highest dew point summer until it was finally surpassed in 2018 and 2019.

[STORMANLI]

Watching TCU building along what looks like sea-breeze boundary to the east.  Fascinating to see cauliflower-like pulsing. Could watch this all day..but I'm not gonna...

[lee59]

10 minutes ago, STORMANLI said:

Watching TCU building along what looks like sea-breeze boundary to the east.  Fascinating to see cauliflower-like pulsing. Could watch this all day..but I'm not gonna...

You would probably enjoy watching the summer sky in Florida. Happens about everyday.

[STORMANLI]

Looks like .12" is all for this "event"

[bluewave]

On 6/14/2021 at 6:42 PM, jfklganyc said:

I’m in Salt Lake City right now.

 

lt is 100°F.. The high is expected to be 103. Tomorrow 105.

For perspective the normal high is 82F

Take a look at any weather app I and go out two weeks. I don’t see one day that is not 15° above normal or more.

 

This is a very scary Ridge. Hope that it does not move east and hope that these people catch a break out here because it is dry as a bone and we are just getting started. This is a tinderbox. Very bad situation out west.

 

 

[the_other_guy]

50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

It was absolutely brutal today. SLC had a temp of 37C when we took off

[donsutherland1]

The first half of June was much warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. New York City had a June 1-15 temperature anomaly of +3.4°.

Tomorrow and Thursday will be mainly sunny and slightly cooler than normal. Afterward, a warming trend will likely develop.

Out West, an extreme heatwave continued in the Southwest, including Phoenix. High temperatures included:

Billings: 105° (old record: 98°, 1987) ***Tied June record***
Casper: 101° (old record: 93°, 1946, 1959, and 1987) ***Earliest 100° reading on record***
Death Valley, CA: 124° (old record: 122°, 2000)
Denver: 101° (old record: 97°, 1952 and 1993)
Flagstaff: 94° (old record: 92°, 1974)
Medicine Hat, AB: 94° (old record: 84°, 2009)
Needles, CA: 121° (old record: 119°, 1940)
Phoenix: 115° (tied record set in 1974)
Salt Lake City: 107° (old record: 102°, 1974) ***Tied all-time record***
Tucson: 115° (old record: 110°, 1896) ***Earliest 115° reading on record***

The extreme heat will continue through much of this week. The temperature could reach 115° on multiple days in Phoenix, especially during tomorrow through Friday. For reference, Phoenix's daily records for the June 16-18 period are posted below.

Record high maximum temperatures:

June 16: 115°, 1896 and 1974
June 17: 114°, 2014
June 18: 115°, 1989 and 2015

Record high minimum temperatures:

June 16: 86°, 1988
June 17: 88°, 1986 and 2008
June 18: 88°, 2008

Phoenix will very likely see the earliest temperature above 115° on record. The existing record was set on June 19, 2016 when the temperature reached 118°. That record was tied in 2017.

This unseasonable heat will extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. It remains uncertain whether this extreme air mass will impact the region at some point later in the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was +24.25 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.980 today.

On June 13 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.268 (RMM). The June 12-adjusted amplitude was 0.973 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

With Phoenix very likely to reach 115° or above this week, that development could provide another hint of a warmer than normal summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June had a warmer than July-August. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.1° (2.1° above normal).

 

[donsutherland1]

22 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

It was absolutely brutal today. SLC had a temp of 37C when we took off

The final figure was 107, which tied the all-time record.

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, uncle W said:

NYC was only 94 in 1972...98 in 1963...1963 had some very cool days in between heat waves...Aug/Sept 63 was on of the coolest on record...

wow and JFK hit 100 both those years....94 in 1972 when JFK hit 100 must've been one of the largest gaps of temp between the two with JFK hitting 100.

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The final figure was 107, which tied the all-time record.

must be difficult for planes to take off in that weather

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The first half of June was much warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. New York City had a June 1-15 temperature anomaly of +3.4°.

Tomorrow and Thursday will be mainly sunny and slightly cooler than normal. Afterward, a warming trend will likely develop.

Out West, an extreme heatwave continued in the Southwest, including Phoenix. High temperatures included:

Billings: 105° (old record: 98°, 1987) ***Tied June record***
Casper: 101° (old record: 93°, 1946, 1959, and 1987) ***Earliest 100° reading on record***
Death Valley, CA: 124° (old record: 122°, 2000)
Denver: 101° (old record: 97°, 1952 and 1993)
Flagstaff: 94° (old record: 92°, 1974)
Medicine Hat, AB: 94° (old record: 84°, 2009)
Needles, CA: 121° (old record: 119°, 1940)
Phoenix: 115° (tied record set in 1974)
Salt Lake City: 107° (old record: 102°, 1974) ***Tied all-time record***
Tucson: 115° (old record: 110°, 1896) ***Earliest 115° reading on record***

The extreme heat will continue through much of this week. The temperature could reach 115° on multiple days in Phoenix, especially during tomorrow through Friday. For reference, Phoenix's daily records for the June 16-18 period are posted below.

Record high maximum temperatures:

June 16: 115°, 1896 and 1974
June 17: 114°, 2014
June 18: 115°, 1989 and 2015

Record high minimum temperatures:

June 16: 86°, 1988
June 17: 88°, 1986 and 2008
June 18: 88°, 2008

Phoenix will very likely see the earliest temperature above 115° on record. The existing record was set on June 19, 2016 when the temperature reached 118°. That record was tied in 2017.

This unseasonable heat will extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. It remains uncertain whether this extreme air mass will impact the region at some point later in the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was +24.25 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.980 today.

On June 13 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.268 (RMM). The June 12-adjusted amplitude was 0.973 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

With Phoenix very likely to reach 115° or above this week, that development could provide another hint of a warmer than normal summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June had a warmer than July-August. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.1° (2.1° above normal).

 

Looks like Needles and Death Valley were the only ones to exceed 120 so far.

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The final figure was 107, which tied the all-time record.

Could break that there tomorrow and even make a run at 110!  Amazing at that elevation and proximity to a large lake.

 

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, bluewave said:

1983 was our highest dew point summer until it was finally surpassed in 2018 and 2019.

1983 really seems to be like an early warning shot of the type of summers that have become more common in recent years

 

[wdrag]

Good Wednesday morning everyone,

The Sunday-Tuesday totals were less than anticipated w NJ, and LI didn't do well. Radar seemed to have spotty higher AMT in NYS-CT but not seen in CoCoRAHS, with a max only 2.4" in NJ.

Yesterdays anticipated cold core thunder-small hail did not materialize in our area, as far as I can tell.  

 

 

[wdrag]

fwiw: a week ago originally anticipated weekend of 19-20 Tropical infusion, apparently delayed and may still miss to our south... but fwiw... here the EPS modeling from 00z/16. Doesn't mean this clustering will be correct. Worthy of monitoring.  Otherwise if we miss this, we might be seeing it a little on the drier side the next couple of weeks??