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General Severe Weather Discussion


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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1129 AM CDT TUE MAY 04 2021  
  
VALID 041630Z - 051200Z  
  
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN  
MS TO WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST AL...  
  
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID-ATLANTIC  
STATES...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE  
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.  
   
..TX TO THE SOUTHEAST  
  
COMPLEX FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH SEVERAL  
CLUSTERS OF ONGOING CONVECTION FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO THE SOUTHERN  
APPALACHIANS. A MOIST AND MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS  
EXISTS ACROSS A BROAD REGION AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY. AS NOTED IN 12Z  
REGIONAL OBSERVED SOUNDINGS, THIS IS WHERE AN ELEVATED MIXED  
LAYER/PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS ESTABLISHED ATOP  
RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S  
THAT PRECEDES AN EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE  
ARKLATEX AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.  
  
INFLUENCED BY THE PROGRESSIVE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH,  
STORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A  
CORRESPONDING UPTICK IN WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL EXPECTED ASIDE FROM A  
PERSISTENT SEVERE HAIL RISK. STRENGTHENING BELT OF SOUTHWESTERLY  
LOW/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING  
GROWTH INTO MULTIPLE QUASI-LINEAR MCSS. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS,  
SOME SIGNIFICANT, AND BRIEF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE  
PRIMARY QLCS THAT IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY  
INTO AL.  

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1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

With the freezing line around 750 mb tomorrow and CAMs showing some enhanced convection, there may be some fairly efficient hail producing storms in the area tomorrow and maybe even some hail “showers” 

Would see these quite a bit when I lived in the Great Lakes. Very cool to be honest, just would get the brief bursts of convection that was almost entirely hail.

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3 hours ago, nwohweather said:

Would see these quite a bit when I lived in the Great Lakes. Very cool to be honest, just would get the brief bursts of convection that was almost entirely hail.

Yep this is a great setup for it. I’ve seen it only once in my life but we had maybe 20 minutes of pure, pea sized hail, that covered everything including the road. I think some areas see this tomorrow 

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  • 4 weeks later...

surprise

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
531 PM EDT Wed Jun 2 2021

NCC061-022145-
/O.CON.KMHX.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-210602T2145Z/
Duplin NC-
531 PM EDT Wed Jun 2 2021

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN DUPLIN COUNTY...

At 528 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Rose Hill, or 7
miles northeast of Wallace, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Law enforcement confirmed tornado. At 515 PM, damage was
         reported near Teachey.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Beulaville, Sarecta and Greenevers.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.
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  • 2 weeks later...
15 minutes ago, Jessy89 said:

Both these cells managed to miss me

That’s nuts.  Maybe it’s because I’m paying more attention than what’s warranted, but I’d be at two feet of rain for May and June if multiple storms hadn’t fizzled out with a few miles from me.

Edit:  I just went back and played the loop of your storms.  Talk about a kick in the sack.  Missed you on both sides.

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That’s nuts.  Maybe it’s because I’m paying more attention than what’s warranted, but I’d be at two feet of rain for May and June if multiple storms hadn’t fizzled out with a few miles from me.
Edit:  I just went back and played the loop of your storms.  Talk about a kick in the sack.  Missed you on both sides.

Yep they sure did. Beautiful structure to those storms though


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