May 2021

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, uncle W said:

two years in a row NYC set a standard record low in May...last year was the latest 34 degree temp on record...this year is lowest max of 51 for so late in the season...

What was the high today? The same as yesterday?

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, uncle W said:

as 1945 showed a very cool end of May/beginning of June period can turn around in a hurry...Newark NJ has a max temp range of 96/52...a 44 degree difference...1962 had a 98/48 range for a 50 degree difference...

Got one for 1944, Uncle?  That was part of the 11 yr cycle and was a stand out summer for that decade.  Got a historic hurricane that year too.

 

[hudsonvalley21]

1.28 in the bucket so far today. Storm total as of 7pm is 3.22.  In addition, for the last consecutive 48 hours, the temp has been recorded between 45 and 48 degrees at KSWF.

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, nycwinter said:

another beauty of a day temps in the 40;s raw wind . i did another 2 mile walk today. and when i went out it was not raining for the first mile. then it started pouring rain... as the rain kept pouring down..

i was reminded of the late great bj thomas famous song..

Raindrops keep falling on my head
But that doesn't mean my eyes will soon be turning red
Crying's not for me
'Cause I'm never gonna stop the rain by complaining
Because I'm free
Nothing's worrying me

 

Were you singing while you were running?

No wonder the Yankees got swept in Detroit

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, wdrag said:

Some  numbers: the top 2 are the current ongoing event (coCoRaHs) that began late Friday May 28, and the bottom are the CoCoRahs totals since late Wednesday the 26th.  

 

Seems like spotty 6-7" totals likely coastal NJ by Noon Monday, and I think still a chance of spotty 6" LI. 

 

This part of Wantage only 2.10 this two day event and and 2.24 since late Wed, small by comparison elsewhere.

It's still raining in NEPA so no surprise they made it over 3"!  Over 3" here too.

Walt, where is that report of 3.17" in PA from is that near MPO?

 

[CIK62]

OK here is the GFS ENS instead of the GFS OP.         This would still seem to indicate a potential 10-day HW, but with the peaks mellowed out.

RAIN should end by 11pm and tomorrow could feature improved skies by the afternoon-----but still under 70 for a high.

[xram]

1.34 for the day and total of 3.64 so far

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, bluewave said:

Long Island is climbing up the list of the heaviest May rainstorms. This was updated through midnight. More heavy rain moving in off the Atlantic now.

Maximum 4-Day Total Precipitation 
for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	5.27	1984-05-31	0
2	5.04	1989-05-19	0
-			0
-			0
3	4.29	1990-05-19	0
-			0
-			0
4	4.18	1998-05-11	0
			0
			0
			0
			0
5	3.17	1966-05-22	0
6	3.13	2003-05-26	0
			0
			0
-			0
			0
7	2.85	2011-05-19	0
8	2.84	2021-05-29	0

Chris, do you happen to have the hi/lo temps for those top Mays?  I dont remember any of those storms lol.

1984, 1989, 1990 and 1998

So weird that 1989 and 1990 had them on the same date, back to back years!

 

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

Dont justify that with an answer. A lot of us in this forum have two multiple houses.

 

  45° F, pouring. Heat has been on for two days. Even the secondary heat in the basement has kicked on.

I’m having a barbecue later and I’m going to light the fireplace and the drink du jour will be hot toddies

I'm just heating my bedroom lol.  Whenever I go to another part of the house it feels like winter!  This really is March like weather.

I heard tomorrow the sun is going to come out   I'm going to do my BBQ then!  I hope we all get to enjoy some sun tomorrow so we can at least say we had a good Memorial Day!

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Record Low Maximum Temperatures: May 29, 2021

Atlantic City: 54°(old record: 56°, 1946)
Binghamton: 45° (old record: 50°, 1964)
Bridgeport: 52° (old record: 58°, 1950)
Farmingdale: 52° (old record: 59°, 2017)
Harrisburg: 52° (old record: 57°, 1990)
Hartford: 49° (old record: 51°, 1917) ***Latest-season high in the 40s***
Islip: 51° (old record: 58°, 2017)
Mount Pocono: 43° (old record: 53°, 1990) ***Coldest high so late in the season***
New Haven: 53° (old record: 58°, 2017)
New York City-JFK: 52° (old record: 57°, 1967)
New York City-LGA: 52° (old record: 58°, 1950)
New York City-NYC: 51° (tied record set in 1884) ***Coldest high so late in the season***
Newark: 52°(old record: 60°, 1940 and 1950)
Philadelphia: 54° (old record: 56°, 1884)
Poughkeepsie: 50° (old record: 58°, 1990 and 2017)
Scranton: 50°(old record: 56°, 1967)
Trenton: 50° (old record: 57°, 1901)
Westhampton: 51° (old record: 58°, 2017)
White Plains: 49° (old record: 58°, 2017) ***Latest-season high in the 40s***

 

Don, were the highs similar today?  And did we have any record lows?

 

[donsutherland1]

38 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It seems to happen every May now, Don, why didn't we get these kind of aberrant arctic shots in May back when I was growing up in the 80s?

There are resonance events in climate change where the flow is distorted. It’s too soon to know whether that was the case this time around. One would need an attribution study to be sure.

[donsutherland1]

28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, were the highs similar today?  And did we have any record lows?

 

I will soon be posting where things stand.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

There are resonance events in climate change where the flow is distorted. It’s too soon to know whether that was the case this time around. One would need an attribution study to be sure.

I would also like to know if the volcanic eruption in the Caribbean had any influence in this.

[nycwinter]

53 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It doesn't take all that long to dry out the ground anyway.  I dont think 100 is possible here in June anyway because it hasn't happened in my lifetime, however the heat of next week should dry out the ground nicely, thereby setting the stage for 100 degrees in July.  It's like a cold airmass that comes in before a snowstorm, dropping the temperature of the ground and priming it for a big snowstorm that will start to stick right away.

 

last time it hit 100 in june in nyc was in 1966

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

last time it hit 100 in june in nyc was in 1966

That’s the last time it may have been recorded in the park...doesn’t mean the last time it was 100 in nyc

[donsutherland1]

Through 8 pm, many locations in the region remained on track to set new daily record low maximum temperatures or tie existing records. High temperatures and daily record low maximum temperatures included:

Albany: 48° (51°, 1953)
Allentown: 51° (52°, 1953)
Atlantic City: 54°(58°, 1953 and 1971)
Baltimore: 57° (58°, 1915)
Boston: 51° (51°, 1901)
Bridgeport: 52° (58°, 1953)
Farmingdale: 52° (59°, 2017)
Harrisburg: 56 (58°, 1915 and 1953)
Hartford: 50° (55°, 1953)
Islip: 52° (60°, 2017)
Mount Pocono: 47 (53°, 1924)
New Haven: 53° (57°, 1953)
New York City-JFK: 52° (57°, 1953)
New York City-LGA: 52° (57°, 1953)
New York City-NYC: 51° (55°, 1884)
Newark: 53(53°, 1953)
Philadelphia: 53° (59°, 1918)
Poughkeepsie: 50° (52°, 1953)
Providence: 50° (53°, 1996)
Scranton: 52°(52°, 1953)
Trenton: 51 (54°, 1915)
Westhampton: 51° (58°, 2017)
White Plains: 50° (56°, 1953)
Wilmington, DE: 53° (62°, 1953 and 1971)
Worcester: 47° (51°, 1996)

If Central Park records a high temperature of 51°, that would be the coldest high temperature so late in the season.

In addition, New York City's LaGuardia Airport recorded a low temperature of 48°. That tied the daily minimum temperature record set in 1940 and tied in 1949.

Any rain and showers will end tomorrow morning. Afterward, it will remain mainly mostly cloudy. It will also become milder. It will likely become much warmer late in the week.

The first 7-10 days of June could start off warmer than normal. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range. The latest EPS guidance favors warmer than normal conditions in the Northeast through at least the first 10 days of June.

Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around May 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was -10.78 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.194 today.

On May 28 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.369 (RMM). The May 27-adjusted amplitude was 0.175 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.9° (0.3° below normal).

 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Through 8 pm, many locations in the region remained on track to set new daily record low maximum temperatures or tie existing records. High temperatures and daily record low maximum temperatures included:

Albany: 48° (51°, 1953)
Allentown: 51° (52°, 1953)
Atlantic City: 54°(58°, 1953 and 1971)
Baltimore: 57° (58°, 1915)
Boston: 51° (51°, 1901)
Bridgeport: 52° (58°, 1953)
Farmingdale: 52° (59°, 2017)
Harrisburg: 56 (58°, 1915 and 1953)
Hartford: 50° (55°, 1953)
Islip: 52° (60°, 2017)
Mount Pocono: 47 (53°, 1924)
New Haven: 53° (57°, 1953)
New York City-JFK: 52° (57°, 1953)
New York City-LGA: 52° (57°, 1953)
New York City-NYC: 51° (55°, 1884)
Newark: 53(53°, 1953)
Philadelphia: 53° (59°, 1918)
Poughkeepsie: 50° (52°, 1953)
Providence: 50° (53°, 1996)
Scranton: 52°(52°, 1953)
Trenton: 51 (54°, 1915)
Westhampton: 51° (58°, 2017)
White Plains: 50° (56°, 1953)
Wilmington, DE: 53° (62°, 1953 and 1971)
Worcester: 47° (51°, 1996)

If Central Park records a high temperature of 51°, that would be the coldest high temperature so late in the season.

In addition, New York City's LaGuardia Airport recorded a low temperature of 48°. That tied the daily minimum temperature record set in 1940 and tied in 1949.

Any rain and showers will end tomorrow morning. Afterward, it will remain mainly mostly cloudy. It will also become milder. It will likely become much warmer late in the week.

The first 7-10 days of June could start off warmer than normal. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range. The latest EPS guidance favors warmer than normal conditions in the Northeast through at least the first 10 days of June.

Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around May 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was -10.78 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.194 today.

On May 28 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.369 (RMM). The May 27-adjusted amplitude was 0.175 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.9° (0.3° below normal).

 

Wow the late season cold really did a number on the May avg temp.  Will this May end up cooler than last May, Don?

 

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Wow the late season cold really did a number on the May avg temp.  Will this May end up cooler than last May, Don?

 

Last May was much cooler. This May would be warmer than normal against the 1981-2010 normals. My figure uses the updated 1991-2020 normals.

[donsutherland1]

25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I would also like to know if the volcanic eruption in the Caribbean had any influence in this.

It’s doubtful. It had no impact on the stratosphere. There would also be a lab between the volcanic eruption and the spread of gases and ash in the atmosphere.

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

It's still raining in NEPA so no surprise they made it over 3"!  Over 3" here too.

Walt, where is that report of 3.17" in PA from is that near MPO?

 

6.6nw Chapman PA

[nycwinter]

41 minutes ago, psv88 said:

That’s the last time it may have been recorded in the park...doesn’t mean the last time it was 100 in nyc

well the park is all that matters in nyc..

[Snowlover11]

looks like we are done with the rain finally, time to rebound from a horrible mdw.

[weathermedic]

Finished up with 2.71 inches total rainfall at my station in Sheepshead Bay for the weekend event. 

[Rtd208]

Picked up 1.12" of rain for the day yesterday.

Final storm total 3.38"

Current temp 50

[Rjay]

Closing in on 3.75"

[gravitylover]

2.7 total since Friday.

[wdrag]

2.55 Wantage NJ. Will post CoCo RAHS event totals and totals since late Wed, sometime between 10A-3P.  

 

Max event so far 4.41 Ocean County and max since late Wed 5.96 Ocean County.  Early in the Monday morning reporting cycle. 

[bluewave]

9th wettest May for parts of Long Island

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	1989	10.14	0
2	1984	9.43	0
3	1990	8.94	0
4	1998	7.87	0
5	1978	6.87	0
6	1966	6.09	0
7	2009	5.88	0
8	1972	5.82	0
9	2021	5.12	1
10	2019	5.05	0

[LoboLeader1]

2.15" in rain bucket total since Friday.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will become partly sunny and warmer. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 60s and lower 70s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 69°

Newark: 74°

Philadelphia: 73°

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and still milder.