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April 20-21 late season snow potential


Hoosier
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For reference, Detroit has seen seven storms bring 1” or more snow on or after April 20. There is a chance that next week could add to the list.

Those past storms are:

May 21-22, 1883: 5.0”

April 29, 1909: 3.0”

April 22, 1911: 1.0”

May 13, 1912: 1.5”

May 9, 1923: 6.0”

April 23-24, 1967: 1.7”

April 23-24, 2005: 4.3”

The most recent date on or after April 20 that saw measurable snowfall was May 10, 2020 when 0.5” accumulated.

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22 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

For reference, Detroit has seen seven storms bring 1” or more snow on or after April 20. There is a chance that next week could add to the list.

Those past storms are:

May 21-22, 1883: 5.0”

April 29, 1909: 3.0”

April 22, 1911: 1.0”

May 13, 1912: 1.5”

May 9, 1923: 6.0”

April 23-24, 1967: 1.7”

April 23-24, 2005: 4.3”

The most recent date on or after April 20 that saw measurable snowfall was May 10, 2020 when 0.5” accumulated.

One more to add. 

May 21-22, 1883: 5.0”

April 29, 1909: 3.0”

April 22, 1911: 1.0”

May 13, 1912: 1.5”

May 9, 1923: 6.0”

Apr 20, 1947: 1.2"

April 23-24, 1967: 1.7”

April 23-24, 2005: 4.3”

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Hard to believe there is even a possibility of largely being missed to the south on April 20 of all times.  I know it is possible but it's almost one of those you gotta see it to believe it things.  At least convection down south is not a potential source of error with this system... sometimes that screws with the mass fields and results in a southeastward track.

 

snku_acc.us_mw.thumb.png.6fe3668ebf25df09efb9aaaf1e6237ef.png

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Hard to believe there is even a possibility of largely being missed to the south on April 20 of all times.  I know it is possible but it's almost one of those you gotta see it to believe it things.  At least convection down south is not a potential source of error with this system... sometimes that screws with the mass fields and results in a southeastward track.

 

snku_acc.us_mw.thumb.png.6fe3668ebf25df09efb9aaaf1e6237ef.png

Bufkit has snow further SE. Has Muncie with 7" not 1 .8" . Indy with 6" ..  0z GfS

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6 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

One more to add. 

May 21-22, 1883: 5.0”

April 29, 1909: 3.0”

April 22, 1911: 1.0”

May 13, 1912: 1.5”

May 9, 1923: 6.0”

Apr 20, 1947: 1.2"

April 23-24, 1967: 1.7”

April 23-24, 2005: 4.3”

Yes. A total of 1.6” fell during 4/19-20.

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have seen several of these heavy wet snows with leaves on trees the past few years. T-giving 2018, Halloween event 2019, and one each of the last 3 Aprils. They are less than enjoyable. Those southeast of here are due. I'm sure the wisconsin/iowa folks would agree.

 

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37 minutes ago, Baum said:

have seen several of these heavy wet snows with leaves on trees the past few years. T-giving 2018, Halloween event 2019, and one each of the last 3 Aprils. They are less than enjoyable. Those southeast of here are due. I'm sure the wisconsin/iowa folks would agree.

 

I'm surprised you still had leaves on the trees on Thanksgiving! We did have some late clinging colorful leaves Nov 11, 2019 which was surreal with 9" of snow. Spring-wise, the late green up in 2020 meant only the early flowers were up for the snows of Apr 15 & 17, and while the trees had begun by the May 10th snow, it melted in a few hours.  

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15 hours ago, Hoosier said:

IWX tried to find some humor in it all.  Even managed to work in a reference to the Edmund Fitzgerald song.

Love the Gordon Lightfoot reference but I vehemently disagree with this sentiment from their forecast discussion:

This sets the stage for a winter storm to come terrorize the region
Tuesday into Wednesday. Perhaps that`s a little dramatic, but lets face it. No one wants snow or cold at the end of April.
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16 hours ago, Hoosier said:

IWX tried to find some humor in it all.  Even managed to work in a reference to the Edmund Fitzgerald song.

 

15 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Love the Gordon Lightfoot reference but I vehemently disagree with this sentiment from their forecast discussion:

This sets the stage for a winter storm to come terrorize the region
Tuesday into Wednesday. Perhaps that`s a little dramatic, but lets face it. No one wants snow or cold at the end of April.

I actually egged that on, as she is a friend of mine. She, like me, loves gardening and is a heat miser. The other day she posted on her FB page, "The forecast is officially disgusting the next week. That is all."  I teased her by saying it would make a good Long Term AFD. So for the past two days since she has been working the forecast desk, she has been playing it up in her discussions. As far as the Gordon Lightfoot reference, she grew up in Michigan and is a big promoter of boating and rip current safety on Lake Michigan.

I cheer the models on all winter hoping to bullseye, then when mid-April comes and I switch into mushroom hunting, fishing, and gardening mode, I cheer the models on for a miss to the north, so I agree with her not wanting snow at the end of April.

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40 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Starting to look like the ukmet might have been on to something :gun::ph34r::facepalm:

After last nights euro and the 6z nam this morning, along with the rgem caving SE, id say maybe the ukmet will score a coup with this one, but the 12z NAM is back a lil further NW and has a more impressive band of snow from Chicago through port huron. Not sure what to think with this one. I have a trip planned to Cali to see my bro and have a flight out tomorrow but if this one looks to drop 6+, I may stay for it and fly out wednesday lol. My brother after all these years still can't believe I would stay a few days home for a snowstorm rather than going to cali lol. Nobody understands us weenies.

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The model differences show up as early as tomorrow and into Tuesday morning with the handling of the fronto band of precip.  The GFS basically fades it away entirely as time goes on, while the NAM does not.  Usually I'm going to lean on the NAM handling of a more mesocale feature like that, and the HRRR/RAP look more like the NAM as well.  Curious what RC thinks about that.

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5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The model differences show up as early as tomorrow and into Tuesday morning with the handling of the fronto band of precip.  The GFS basically fades it away entirely as time goes on, while the NAM does not.  Usually I'm going to lean on the NAM handling of a more mesocale feature like that, and the HRRR/RAP look more like the NAM as well.  Curious what RC thinks about that.

Notice the difference

12Z-20210418_GFSMW_prec_prec-30-42-50-100.gif.8beab2ae61d8a704966e9ca828665c84.gif

 

12Z-20210418_NAMMW_prec_prec-30-42-50-100.gif.75f015ec7b9590bf3aa0f509b5e5e484.gif

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