April 15-16 interior snow threat

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

3K just from 6 hrs ago.

Maybe I should had to Pit 2.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It’s about 3-6 there.

3k NAM

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

3k NAM

Yes. Put away the 10:1 clowns.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yes. Put away the 10:1 clowns.

Pounded 

[CoastalWx]

So far the convective models are nailing Worcester and interior NE MA along 495 and west of 93. Even down to western Norfolk county. WRF NSSL drags in warmer air into Essex county. But the other two models look good even for Ray.

[weatherwiz]

I wonder if there is a window for a second short-lived extremely narrow band to develop tomorrow night (like between 3z-9z period) from like ORH down into northeast CT. Really tight window b/c occlusion has well occurred by this time and we're fighting the intrusion of dry air but the NAM does show a second pretty decent area of fronto develop during this time. 

[CoastalWx]

For the lower spots below like 600’ or so, I think you need this to absolutely nuke. Once intensity let’s up it’s probably sloppy snow at 36F. You’ll need the dynamics to go nuts for any accumulation more than an inch or two. Even higher elevations may warm to like 34 and have melting when intensity let’s up. But if it’s S+ it will be right at 32 and accumulating above 990’

[moneypitmike]

It'll be interesting to see how BOX adjusts maps later today.  Here's their current 'high-end' map.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I wonder if there is a window for a second short-lived extremely narrow band to develop tomorrow night (like between 3z-9z period) from like ORH down into northeast CT. Really tight window b/c occlusion has well occurred by this time and we're fighting the intrusion of dry air but the NAM does show a second pretty decent area of fronto develop during this time. 

Yeah some models Show a band along the occluded back bent mid level front. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

So far the convective models are nailing Worcester and interior NE MA along 495 and west of 93. Even down to western Norfolk county. WRF NSSL drags in warmer air into Essex county. But the other two models look good even for Ray.

Are you saying nothing west of there in RI west to VT?

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah some models Show a band along the occluded back bent mid level front. 

That has been showing up a lot

[ma blizzard]

we go back to ORH for this one

[Typhoon Tip]

20 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

12z rpm hooks the low around the Cape and eventually into the south shore. Gets interesting right into Boston for a couple hours. Pretty large spread this morning with the track of the low. 

Yeah, I think that's because the cyclone is simply less anchored. 

You know this shit but ... the lower levels are exhibiting typical spring amorphous layout, with weak baroclinic gradients. 

... for the general reader...  when the fronts are better defined (better baroclinic gradient) lower in the atmosphere, that mechanically turns the upward air motion, or restoring air flows, into the z-coordinate sooner/ lower.  That draws the surface low to a point more coherently that way,  "anchored" at typically more physically defined lower frontal slopes.

But when the fronts are weak/amorphously interfaced the  UVM is more focused above at mid levels.. ..like a spinning over a fluid medium so it's really gyroing around run to run, and model to model, and may even exhibit subtly so in verification, too.  Best just to take a kind of super blend of all ...

I think a low near near the Bourne bridge/Buzzard's Bay ..exit transit on the shore side of Cape Cod Bay...possibly moving more SE as it really slips into history

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Are you saying nothing west of there in RI west to VT?

AEMATT

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah some models Show a band along the occluded back bent mid level front. 

Not sure what to make of it. I don't think it would be anything impressive but enough to just keep things going a bit longer. Maybe add another inch or two for the higher elevations. 

[CoastalWx]

Hopefully CCB into eastern CT and N and NW. Hole over Tolland county and back bent WF gets Weha and Wiz as well as are friends west of the river.

[dryslot]

20 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Maybe I should had to Pit 2.

Who knows, Models have the surface low all over the place, Not even certain where its going to end up, I don't expect more then a sloppy 1-2" if anything at all, But looks like it could be a soaker where it eventually tracks.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully CCB into eastern CT and N and NW. Hole over Tolland county and back bent WF gets Weha and Wiz as well as are friends west of the river.

??

[ORH_wxman]

RGEM curls the low pretty far west this run now. Kind of like 3km. Def some model wars at the moment. The HRRR/RAP agree with 12km NAM more while the 3km NAM agrees with the RGEM more. RGEM is prob more pessimistic than 3km NAM. It's pretty warm.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

??

Kidding 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM curls the low pretty far west this run now. Kind of like 3km. Def some model wars at the moment. The HRRR/RAP agree with 12km NAM more while the 3km NAM agrees with the RGEM more. RGEM is prob more pessimistic than 3km NAM. It's pretty warm.

Certainly is. High stakes on which one is right. The other hi res guidance kept the low more near cape cod bay. 

[Typhoon Tip]

It's interesting because depending on the product release ..gives different complexion to this thing.

I can look at the Kuchera this, a Trop. Tidbits that... a Pivotal this... and general course synoptic layout that, and all give a range of 2 to 20" off the 12z NAM solution I just saw. 

I think that hearkens to the delicate nature and that these varying products don't resolve at the same scalar dimensions - has to be .. otherwise we'd see an average and Ooh, ...maybe 8" is both climo friendly for seasonal anomaly, and more likely in a system that's not altogether historically powerful in any stretch of the imagination - just from orbit. I mean, the long fetch CCB stuff/arguments can offset and over-produce relative to the component analysis...sure... and it may - who knows.

But I have a fetish for the old NAM FOUS raw grid data.  I grew up Meteorologically coming of analytic age using that device and it too, is showing a 20" of snow for Framingham Blackedout-achusetts:

12000838131 00405 081015 45060400   12027967814 15702 042508 43100599
18021888038 02210 050818 43040200   18008834905 -2007 053415 34060095
24073989037 09410 040616 38010097   24000825603 -2407 053108 28040092
30085976106 07110 990227 36019897   30000606302 -0704 032609 30080093
36036974904 01208 990230 33039995   36007828807 -0807 063413 33050094
42018976202 -0407 030125 29029992   42000806108 00611 083313 35059994
48007956205 -2807 073619 30019795

 

granted these are Logan numbers...but, Met convention and  duh  reasoning connotes this is a wild white elephant ass of thumb out there in Metrowest...  That is close to 2.37" QPF in sub- 540 dm thickness that are in the process of -(DH) ... The T1 temp ( about mid way up the Prudential Tower's monolith), drops from +4 C to +1 C ... while it is at or sub 0 C at the 900 and 800 mb levels.  That tends to mean there is an arced band west of the city that is isothermal or less at these critical sounding sigma levels... while that tsunamis of QPF is falling. 

This product puts area grid services on high, high alert status...  talking pagers and cots at site release points.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully CCB into eastern CT and N and NW. Hole over Tolland county and back bent WF gets Weha and Wiz as well as are friends west of the river.

Thanks! Would be nice to get us all in on the action and to “See more snow” as well as some “Damage in Tolland”

[HoarfrostHubb]

In my area trees are just beginning to produce tiny leaves, so that should help a little.  Plus the winds this season have taken down many weaker limbs

[HoarfrostHubb]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's interesting because depending on the product release ..gives different complexion to this thing.

I can look at the Kuchera this, a Trop. Tidbits that... a Pivotal this... and general course synoptic layout that, and all give a range of 2 to 20" off the 12z NAM solution I just saw. 

I think that hearkens to the delicate nature and that these varying products don't resolve at the same scalar dimensions - has to be .. otherwise we'd see an average and Ooh, ...maybe 8" is both climo friendly for seasonal anomaly, and more likely in a system that's not altogether historically powerful in any stretch of the imagination - just from orbit. I mean, the long fetch CCB stuff/arguments can offset and over-produce relative to the component analysis...sure... and it may - who knows.

But I have a fetish for the old NAM FOUS raw grid data.  I grew up Meteorologically coming of analytic age using that device and it too, is showing a 20" of snow for Framingham Blackedout-achusetts:

12000838131 00405 081015 45060400   12027967814 15702 042508 43100599
18021888038 02210 050818 43040200   18008834905 -2007 053415 34060095
24073989037 09410 040616 38010097   24000825603 -2407 053108 28040092
30085976106 07110 990227 36019897   30000606302 -0704 032609 30080093
36036974904 01208 990230 33039995   36007828807 -0807 063413 33050094
42018976202 -0407 030125 29029992   42000806108 00611 083313 35059994
48007956205 -2807 073619 30019795

 

granted these are Logan numbers...but, Met convention and  duh  reasoning connotes this is a wild white elephant ass of thumb out there in Metrowest...  That is close to 2.37" QPF in sub- 540 dm thickness that are in the process of -(DH) ... The T1 temp ( about mid way up the Prudential Tower's monolith), drops from +4 C to +1 C ... while it is at or sub 0 C at the 900 and 800 mb levels.  That tends to mean there is an arced band west of the city that is isothermal or less at these critical sounding sigma levels... while that tsunamis of QPF is falling. 

This product puts area grid services on high, high alert status...  talking pagers and cots at site release points.

Lol... Tim Kelly of NECN tweeted FOUS data and said "if this is right we are screwed"

[Whineminster]

6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

In my area trees are just beginning to produce tiny leaves, so that should help a little.  Plus the winds this season have taken down many weaker limbs

We might be out of the best lift, areas SE score again. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Whineminster said:

We might be out of the best lift, areas SE score again. 

That’s about as good as your COVID takes.

[WinterWolf]

It’s April 16th...I don’t think we know what’s gonna happen yet? Modeling has this thing all over the place. lil changes will have a huge impact at this very late date.  Best to expect nothing much in most areas outside of the highest terrain with something like this. 

[weatherwiz]

11 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

In my area trees are just beginning to produce tiny leaves, so that should help a little.  Plus the winds this season have taken down many weaker limbs

o many weakened limbs and trees from the recent stretch of high winds the past year...when we crank up severe season in another month going to be seeing lots of damage this summer. If this is a summer we finally get a derecho...there may not be any trees left come September 

[subdude]

Well, well, well...we snow