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April Discobs 2021


George BM
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Here's hoping that everyone has lots of cereal, nuts and other things not needing a refrigerator.

AND a manual can opener for opening tinned meat ((which doesn't need to be cooked)).

((No news on people making a dash for the stores that might lose power...)

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10 minutes ago, arlwx said:

Here's hoping that everyone has lots of cereal, nuts and other things not needing a refrigerator.

AND a manual can opener for opening tinned meat ((which doesn't need to be cooked)).

((No news on people making a dash for the stores that might lose power...)

50-60 mph gust shouldn't cause widespread long duration power outages. 60 mph is right on the line though. Seems like that's the threshold in this area during the warm season for uprooting large trees. Already breezy out there.

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1 hour ago, arlwx said:

Here's hoping that everyone has lots of cereal, nuts and other things not needing a refrigerator.

AND a manual can opener for opening tinned meat ((which doesn't need to be cooked)).

((No news on people making a dash for the stores that might lose power...)

Can't do w/o power here!  Diesel tanks topped off (575 gallons on the gauge) and both gennies ready to spring into action if needed.  Not sure because in our neck of the woods even with 3 phase power all it takes is a dumb limb to hang up and trip out a recloser.  And trimming schedules have fallen way behind, lots of green far closer than 10' to primaries.

We did get a nice shower that put down nearly half an inch.  Gutter on west side overflowing, full of spruce needles I'm sure.  If it were up to me I'd have all these (trees) leveled out but wife says hell no.  There was some lightning picked up but to our south and east, didn't hear thunder but then again it would have had to been on the loud side with the "sizzling of bacon" sound of torrents of water hitting rocks! :D

This time let's hope the wind forecast busts a bit low which they usually do.  Could be like the wind we have a few weeks ago.  Most of deciduous here aren't close to full out but either way once that wind gusts past the old double nickel more than a few times otherwise healthy limbs become widow makers and that's not good.  Definitely don't want the kids playing near the trees.

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The high impact winds will develop later this afternoon and persist into tonight. Hoping the 60 mph gusts in my forecast don't materialize. I have enough outside stuff to do without having to clean up tree debris. At least the soil is pretty dry.

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Quote
FXUS61 KLWX 301349
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
949 AM EDT FRI APR 30 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND, THEN SHIFT 
OFFSHORE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10:00AM UPDATE: HAVE ADDED MOST OF THE DC METRO AND THE BLUE
RIDGE TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND MAKE A SLIDE EXPANSION TO THE
WIND ADVISORY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA BASED ON THE LONG DURATION OF
THE WIND AND HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A SLIGHTLY STRONG WIND FIELD.

NOTE THAT THE EXTENDED DURATION OF STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES.

 

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One thing to watch is a secondary cold front that will move through in the very late afternoon.    NAM Nest is most aggressive is actually generating a line of very gusty showers on the front.   The frontal passage itself will likely enhance the winds even further.

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6 minutes ago, high risk said:

One thing to watch is a secondary cold front that will move through in the very late afternoon.    NAM Nest is most aggressive is actually generating a line of very gusty showers on the front.   The frontal passage itself will likely enhance the winds even further.

Just the person I was looking for. Yeah I've been looking at that as well. I'd think it could be interesting with >9C/km 0-3km lapse rates and a bit of inverted-v signatures showing up in soundings should a line or line segments form along the front. 

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Wind seems to be overperforming in the immediate DC metro so far and we haven't even hit the start time of the warning.

Yeah. IAD has gusted to 40kts so far. There already a few power outages with a few limbs/weak trees down in Fairfax county.

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