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Winter 2021-2022


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https://www.cbsnews.com/news/new-england-digs-out/

To this day, the February 5 2001 storm still remains my favorite here in the valley.  Even though I got a bit more snow in the 2011 blizzard- 25" in Ellington and 2013-24" in Enfield .  Getting 23" inches of snow in about 11 hours in Springfield Mass with thundersnow when the forecast as the storm began was 6 -10.  There is just something special about dramatically exceeding forecasted snowfall amounts on the day of the storm, especially in an area that tends to consistently underperform.  

 

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1 minute ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/new-england-digs-out/

To this day, the February 5 2001 storm still remains my favorite here in the valley.  Even though I got a bit more snow in the 2011 blizzard- 25" in Ellington and 2013-24" in Enfield .  Getting 23" inches of snow in about 11 hours in Springfield Mass with thundersnow when the forecast as the storm began was 6 -10.  There is just something special about dramatically exceeding forecasted snowfall amounts on the day of the storm, especially in an area that tends to consistently underperform.  

 

I was still in Boston then but I think I remember Will telling me, at a GTG, that storm had an ideal 700mb low track for the CRV.

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7 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I was still in Boston then but I think I remember Will telling me, at a GTG, that storm had an ideal 700mb low track for the CRV.

One of my favorite storms down here in Philly. 2000-01 was the winter I became a snow weenie (Wright-weather and TWC forums ftw!). I remember  going to school in a complete down pour. Changed to snow around noon and we had 1-3” per hour snows for a few hours. Nothing better than other kids trapped on school busses while your mom picked you up early. 
 

Little did I know one of the greatest negative busts of all time would happen just a month later….

 

 

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15 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Did the 2/5/01 band hit you? I remember it extending all the way into interior Maine. 

What about 12/29/16? I think the latter was more south of you though in the lakes region from Bridgton to Naples to Raymond, etc. 

I would probably agree that areas like Farmington would be slightly too far inland and north to get the frequency of 3-4”+ per hour rates that occur further south. The synoptic sweet spot for those is prob like a Bridgton to ORH axis and roughly 30 miles each side. Obviously mesoscale areas like upslope have their own enhanced frequencies.

Don't have the numbers for 02/05/01 but the 12/29/16 event was 19.0" here.

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21 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Don't have the numbers for 02/05/01 but the 12/29/16 event was 19.0" here.

Gray ME had 17.8" on 2/5/01.

 

I looked up Farmington, ME....they had 24" and most of that fell in 12-14 hours, so I'm wondering if Tamarack managed to get his 4" per hour rate in there. Unless maybe that was inflated compared to what Tamarack got. (unless maybe he was still in Gardiner ME back then)

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gray ME had 17.8" on 2/5/01.

 

I looked up Farmington, ME....they had 24" and most of that fell in 12-14 hours, so I'm wondering if Tamarack managed to get his 4" per hour rate in there. Unless maybe that was inflated compared to what Tamarack got. (unless maybe he was still in Gardiner ME back then)

I was probably some where close to that total as Gray is about 10mi as the crow flies, I'm not sure when Tom moved to New Sharon from there, He had mentioned it before here but that would have been in the 2-4"/hr rates for those totals in that case.

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16 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Did the 2/5/01 band hit you? I remember it extending all the way into interior Maine. 

What about 12/29/16? I think the latter was more south of you though in the lakes region from Bridgton to Naples to Raymond, etc. 

I would probably agree that areas like Farmington would be slightly too far inland and north to get the frequency of 3-4”+ per hour rates that occur further south. The synoptic sweet spot for those is prob like a Bridgton to ORH axis and roughly 30 miles each side. Obviously mesoscale areas like upslope have their own enhanced frequencies.

2/5-6/01 was a great 17" storm but I don't think it ever reached 2"/hr much less 4.  We were probably 70+ miles north of the 5"/hour stuff.  It was also notable for a near "tragedy" - I was about to run the snowblower up the path to our dog's tie-out but decided to walk in and free him from something under the snow first.  2 steps into the path and a partridge burst out of the snow, beating its wings against my leg.  Might've been messy if I'd used the machine.  
12/29-30/16 might be a contender but I was sleeping for most of the heaviest - 17.5" in 7 hours, 21.0" total.  That Feb 2009 storm had 18" in 7.5 hours, beginning with the 9 in 2:45 noted above, so it's likely that the 2016 dump had some 3"/hour or more at some point.
Much farther north, the 26.5" storm of 3/14-15/84 had several hours of 3"/hour in the middle of the day and the 18.5" bust* about 5 weeks earlier all fell in 9-10 hours so also may have cracked the 3"/hour barrier.
*Forecast was 1-3" so the plow crews for the school parking lots had slept in, awaking too late to clear the snow and causing the one and only full-day school closure in our 10 years in Fort Kent.  They also closed school after a half day during the March monster, sending the buses out during that midday dumpage, some having kids 30 (hilly/curvy) miles away, and all made it safely.

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13 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I honestly think the March 2019 event might challenge most of what I’ve ever witnessed. I’m ashamed to admit that I never measured it hourly (mostly because my wife was pissed I woke people up in the first place at 3am,) but it had to be 5”+ for that one hour. I mean without a doubt. It was literally choking flakes. And not the foo foo fluff crap, I mean pure man flakes. Most of my snow fell in like 2.5 hrs. I couldn’t believe how fast it stacked up at 31.8F. The other time (and I was driving to work in it) was the famous Cantore TSSN orgasm in Plymouth on 2/15/15. I was on the expressway heading north in Quincy and I was literally blinded by the snow rates. I actually had to pull to the right and follow the guardrail to see where the road was turning because I became disoriented in the middle of the road lol. It was an unreal experience. I remember the lights added to the whole disorientation because everything was a soft orange. It’s like there was so much snow falling it all reflected into the air as a uniform orange glow. Incredible. 

I was pulling several inches per hour in March 2018....I have the notes somewhere, but I think it was like 5-6"/hr.

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Over recent weeks, the strength of the upcoming La Niña has increased on the models. There is still a decent spread with the CFS going borderline strong where as the European model is going with a weak La Niña. What ends up happening will likely be somewhere in the middle based on what I have been looking at in my opinion. More importantly, the entire Pacific Ocean is cooling off and the models are forecasting a weak and displaced polar vortex, with several intrusions into the eastern United States. Moderate La Niña, severe polar vortex intrusions into the eastern United States, North Atlantic blocking, and a weakened pacific jet is what I am thinking we get for the winter pattern at least the 1st half of winter. Often in the second half of La Niña winters they start to suck on the eastern us because the La Niña weakens and it’s grip on the pattern starts to loosen. This allows the pacific jet to start acting up with limited northern branch interaction due to a stronger and more consolidated polar vortex parked right over the North Pole. In my opinion the floor for this winter is 40 inches in the Boston area, with the strength of the La Niña and the polar vortex being the deciding factors on whether winter peters out early like last year, or whether it goes deep into March with multiple severe blizzards during the back half of winter. The range of outcomes I would say is last year as the floor and 1995-1996 as the ceiling, with 2017-2018 being a most likely middle ground.

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58 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gray ME had 17.8" on 2/5/01.

 

I looked up Farmington, ME....they had 24" and most of that fell in 12-14 hours, so I'm wondering if Tamarack managed to get his 4" per hour rate in there. Unless maybe that was inflated compared to what Tamarack got. (unless maybe he was still in Gardiner ME back then)

That was one of 3 large snowstorms in which Farmington reported way more than I had.  VD07 was another, with my 15.5" dwarfed by their 23.0", with an even bigger difference in LE, 3.06" to my 1.80".  Their 2.68" on the 14th is their 2nd greatest calendar day precip in February, behind a 3.25" rainstorm in 1900.  The 2/5-6/01 storm also had a big difference in LE, with 2.35" in Farmington and 1.39" at my place.
Those 2 might be legit despite the variance, but I remain very skeptical about the 3rd, 12/6-7/2003.  The respective numbers for each place are below.

Farmington
12/6   22   8   1.01"   14.0"    14"
12/7   23  20  1.95"  26.0"   40"
My place 6 miles to the east
12/6   20   5   0.43"   6.0"     6"
12/7   22  18   1.20"  18.0"    22"

My obs time was 9 PM and theirs midnight and since it was puking snow at 9 it's likely I had ~12" by 12, making their 14 believable.  However, that would men that while I had ~12" on 12/7, they got 26" and IMO that dog won't hunt.  Other stations in the general area were 23-34" (Rangeley, 1,050 higher with orographic enhancement, reported 40) and we were at our church 1.5 miles SE from the co-op site and maybe 100' higher within an hour of final flakes, and the snow in the church lot (most had not yet been plowed yet) looked about the same as at our house.  I can buy 30" but I think the co-op had some drifting - that storm is one of the 4 here that met all the blizzard criteria.

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28 minutes ago, George001 said:

Over recent weeks, the strength of the upcoming La Niña has increased on the models. There is still a decent spread with the CFS going borderline strong where as the European model is going with a weak La Niña. What ends up happening will likely be somewhere in the middle based on what I have been looking at in my opinion. More importantly, the entire Pacific Ocean is cooling off and the models are forecasting a weak and displaced polar vortex, with several intrusions into the eastern United States. Moderate La Niña, severe polar vortex intrusions into the eastern United States, North Atlantic blocking, and a weakened pacific jet is what I am thinking we get for the winter pattern at least the 1st half of winter. Often in the second half of La Niña winters they start to suck on the eastern us because the La Niña weakens and it’s grip on the pattern starts to loosen. This allows the pacific jet to start acting up with limited northern branch interaction due to a stronger and more consolidated polar vortex parked right over the North Pole. In my opinion the floor for this winter is 40 inches in the Boston area, with the strength of the La Niña and the polar vortex being the deciding factors on whether winter peters out early like last year, or whether it goes deep into March with multiple severe blizzards during the back half of winter. The range of outcomes I would say is last year as the floor and 1995-1996 as the ceiling, with 2017-2018 being a most likely middle ground.

@raindancewxreally likes 2017-2018, which would work just fine for me. lol Of course, he also likes 2001-2002, which makes me want to play in traffic.

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9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That chart is brutal to diagnose, but the pattern displayed doesn't look awful IMO....looks -EPO, -PDO with maybe a hint of blocking?

Yeah we really need H5 anomalies and not SLP anomalies.

But it shows a decent PAC and a meh ATL.

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18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah agreed....EPO is higher correlation for us than the AO/NAO.

Yea, if you tell me I only have one index to work with, and the rest are crap...I would take EPO....at least you know cold will be around. You may still have track issues, but otherwise you could have a perfect track with marine puke and zero baroclinicity to even detonate a bonafide event.

It is exceedingly difficult to have a high ceiling in the absence of cold and baroclinicity...best bet is bookened events. But good luck in mid winter.

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, if you tell me I only have one index to work with, and the rest are crap...I would take EPO....at least you know cold will be around. You may still have track issues, but otherwise you could have a perfect track with marine puke and zero baroclinicity to even detonate a bonafide event.

It is exceedingly difficult to have a high ceiling in the absence of cold and baroclinicity...best bet is bookened events. But good luck in mid winter.

Yeah I'll take the high baroclinicity environment any day and hope we have enough latitude to work with an imperfect track (we often do)....otherwise you have to try for something like a firehose ala Feb 1-2 last year.

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17 hours ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/new-england-digs-out/

To this day, the February 5 2001 storm still remains my favorite here in the valley.  Even though I got a bit more snow in the 2011 blizzard- 25" in Ellington and 2013-24" in Enfield .  Getting 23" inches of snow in about 11 hours in Springfield Mass with thundersnow when the forecast as the storm began was 6 -10.  There is just something special about dramatically exceeding forecasted snowfall amounts on the day of the storm, especially in an area that tends to consistently underperform.  

 

I was at Sunday River for this one. 3.5 to 4 feet, epic. Resort lost power but the next day oh my.

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah agreed....EPO is higher correlation for us than the AO/NAO.

 

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, if you tell me I only have one index to work with, and the rest are crap...I would take EPO....at least you know cold will be around. You may still have track issues, but otherwise you could have a perfect track with marine puke and zero baroclinicity to even detonate a bonafide event.

It is exceedingly difficult to have a high ceiling in the absence of cold and baroclinicity...best bet is bookened events. But good luck in mid winter.

 

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Steve just dropped his pants.

 

24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I'll take the high baroclinicity environment any day and hope we have enough latitude to work with an imperfect track (we often do)....otherwise you have to try for something like a firehose ala Feb 1-2 last year.

 

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We'll take EPO CJs. 

Took me years of pounding this point. Lets do this

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6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That chart is brutal to diagnose, but the pattern displayed doesn't look awful IMO....looks -EPO, -PDO with maybe a hint of blocking?

I don’t see a trough in the west and despite the lack of North Atlantic blocking it does look like the model is indicating a severe polar vortex intrusion into the eastern United States. For a mean that’s not bad, could be 2 good months 1 bad like 2017-2018. Idk if I’m reading it wrong but it looks like there is a weak El Niño in the Enzo region which is strange.

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7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@raindancewxreally likes 2017-2018, which would work just fine for me. lol Of course, he also likes 2001-2002, which makes me want to play in traffic.

Have you looked at 2001-02? Little bit nutty. This is my standard scale. So it's +7 in deep red (F) to -7 in deep purple. March 2002 is kind of incredible nationally. Actually...just about every year I picked is kind of incredible in March nationally. That's one of my big hangups with using that blend.

Here is MJO phase five in 2001 - my greatest ally in December. Week two is colder for me than this. The MJO was around the 2/3 boundary on the RMM index on 9/1. Those years are 1975, 2007, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2020 since the data starts. Those years average ~1/3 of days in MJO phase 5-6 at decent amplitude from Oct-May when I looked.

Screenshot-2021-09-14-5-37-16-PM

But...eventually 7-8 take over. I mentioned in the Weather Fella thread about snow pack / ice (where i'm the only reply) that I expected a big cold outbreak in December. This is an example of it - despite a warm looking month overall.

Screenshot-2021-09-14-5-38-48-PM

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I'll take the high baroclinicity environment any day and hope we have enough latitude to work with an imperfect track (we often do)....otherwise you have to try for something like a firehose ala Feb 1-2 last year.

Can that continue to work in this warming climate? How long can we go to that well until it doesn’t work like it did?

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1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

Have you looked at 2001-02? Little bit nutty. This is my standard scale. So it's +7 in deep red (F) to -7 in deep purple. March 2002 is kind of incredible nationally. Actually...just about every year I picked is kind of incredible in March nationally. That's one of my big hangups with using that blend.

Here is MJO phase five in 2001 - my greatest ally in December. Week two is colder for me than this. The MJO was around the 2/3 boundary on the RMM index on 9/1. Those years are 1975, 2007, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2020 since the data starts. Those years average ~1/3 of days in MJO phase 5-6 at decent amplitude from Oct-May when I looked.

Screenshot-2021-09-14-5-37-16-PM

But...eventually 7-8 take over. I mentioned in the Weather Fella thread about snow pack / ice (where i'm the only reply) that I expected a big cold outbreak in December. This is an example of it - despite a warm looking month overall.

Screenshot-2021-09-14-5-38-48-PM

I am actually trying to incorporate more of matching weather patterns into my analog methods, as I have learned a great deal from you the past few years. It's good to be eclectic in methodology because this is an imperfect science and every method has a weakness. This is why I would never advise placing TOO much weight on synoptic timescale matching in analogs, or anything else for that matter. There are going to be good analogs that are not entirely in sync with the current weather....just too much chaos to be that precise. That said, I would be positively stunned if this December were not colder in the east than December 2001. Doesn't mean that season does not have value as analog. 

I did not do forecasting back then,  but I do remember that the 2001-2002 season was a real curve ball bc the consensus was very cold and snowy in the east.

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