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2021 Atlantic Hurricane season


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1 hour ago, Rhino16 said:

Should we expect something very bad to happen if a storm makes it into the Gulf?

All depends on the environment whenever a system got there. Just look at Marco and Laura last year. Both ran into the Gulf and had entirely different outcomes just a few days apart due to the conditions they met. 

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17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Why? 

click on the  link to his forecast and  find  out. Im amazed NOAA went  so high. When JB starts  lowering  his  numbers  its  only the  beginning. Cant  get a decent season in the ATL with a  hyper active east  pac.

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GFS continues to show a  hyper active el nino like east  pac. My guess is  1 or  2 very  weak quickly dissapating storms this  month. 2 or  3 in Sept. El Nino like seasons dont  usually have too much of  interest. Maybe oct  will be  busier  but  by then winter  is  coming and its  just  not that  interesting.

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20 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

GFS continues to show a  hyper active el nino like east  pac. My guess is  1 or  2 very  weak quickly dissapating storms this  month. 2 or  3 in Sept. El Nino like seasons dont  usually have too much of  interest. Maybe oct  will be  busier  but  by then winter  is  coming and its  just  not that  interesting.

Your a Debbie. Winter spring summer and fall we get it. 

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13 minutes ago, Diggiebot said:

Your a Debbie. Winter spring summer and fall we get it. 

When JB starts  lowering his  numbers its  means alot. Its  like when he starts cutting  his  winter  snowfall totals, you  know  its  done. Of course an Andrew  is always  possible like  1 big snow  in an otherwise very warm winter.

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1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

GFS continues to show a  hyper active el nino like east  pac. My guess is  1 or  2 very  weak quickly dissapating storms this  month. 2 or  3 in Sept. El Nino like seasons dont  usually have too much of  interest. Maybe oct  will be  busier  but  by then winter  is  coming and its  just  not that  interesting.

Dude stop

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At this point I would be very happy watching intense storms way out in the Atlantic that curve away from the US. Give me a perfect eye major to watch spin over the ocean and I am good. Let them all stay out there. We'll still enjoy the beautiful rolling waves as they hit our shores from far away. :)

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16 hours ago, ldub23 said:

GFS continues to show a  hyper active el nino like east  pac. My guess is  1 or  2 very  weak quickly dissapating storms this  month. 2 or  3 in Sept. El Nino like seasons dont  usually have too much of  interest. Maybe oct  will be  busier  but  by then winter  is  coming and its  just  not that  interesting.

Come on now just because one model shows an active EPAC and one guy lowers his numbers a bit does not mean the season is cancelled. Early August isn't usually very active in the Atlantic anyway. Later in the month things start to pick up. 

Not to mention the GFS showed major after major in the EPAC last year and that didn't happen and so far it's not happening this year either, although the system behind TD11-E might have a better chance to get strong.

And this isn't even an El Niño season lol

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Seems we have lots to be humble about, judging by the forecast performance to date.

Admittedly, we are just at the start of the real hurricane season, but the reduced forecast by JB at least suggests that.

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That lead wave/western edge of the monsoon trough has been designated Invest 94L. Of all the disturbances we've seen the last few days, I've thought this one had the best chance of development if it could avoid land interaction. It is disorganized and ugly looking right now, but looks better than it did 24 hours ago (same could be said for 93L) as it is more convectively active. 

Has a lot of work to do and it's far from certain it develops. 

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611f83d474b1dd2c614dd

cdas-sflux_sst_watl_1.png

iENm915.gif

giphy.gif?cid=790b761119a5401c42937a22aa

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Orange for both 93 and 94L in the Five Day Outlook. I like 94L's chances a little better regardless of Greater Antilles interaction. Better upper atmospheric conditions in the short-term for organization to evolve. Obviously the thermodynamics are there. 93L has some VWS to contend with that may continue to force stable air into it from the N. That could change however as it gains some longitude. At any rate, multiple surface circulations within a larger monsoonal trough is difficult for models to find cohesiveness and consistency between runs. May take another few days to iron out.67c9495189280a0c452fdf1d1ae4cc71.jpg

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I'm running a +17 inch surplus for the year in Eastern NC and wo far its the wettest year on record to date. While most of the heavy rains modeled would be north of me that's the head waters of the river systems and would cause major flooding.

On the other hand with the ground so saturated a real deal inland wind storm would cause major tree loss. 

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 0Z UKMET does develop 94L into a TD in the NE Caribbean Tuesday and takes it to just SE of S FL at 144 hours moving WNW (end of run) but it never gets stronger than TD. The UKMET fwiw can be conservatively weak. So, we’ll see. The Euro, GFS, and CMC are pretty similarly weak and also suggest it will move toward S FL. This is just guidance.

 

 

       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  60 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 17.3N  63.3W

 

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 10.08.2021   60  17.3N  63.3W     1013            28

    0000UTC 11.08.2021   72  18.7N  66.3W     1012            27

    1200UTC 11.08.2021   84  19.6N  69.0W     1011            28

    0000UTC 12.08.2021   96  20.7N  71.5W     1011            29

    1200UTC 12.08.2021  108  21.7N  74.0W     1012            26

    0000UTC 13.08.2021  120  22.4N  76.2W     1012            25

    1200UTC 13.08.2021  132  23.2N  78.0W     1013            22

    0000UTC 14.08.2021  144  23.9N  80.0W     1013            26

———————————————

 

Regardless of development, progged steering suggests this may very well cause an increase in rainfall over parts of FL/SE US by early next week.

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51 minutes ago, AmpedVort said:

 

 

Looked authentic GFS fantasy run... It is always the excitement and high expectations somewhat.

You went a little wild there :P but you're a new poster. Enthusiasm is good. Just keep in mind that those model runs will jump all over the place as it tries to sort out a complex environment. 

2 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Orange for both 93 and 94L in the Five Day Outlook. I like 94L's chances a little better regardless of Greater Antilles interaction. Better upper atmospheric conditions in the short-term for organization to evolve. Obviously the thermodynamics are there. 93L has some VWS to contend with that may continue to force stable air into it from the N. That could change however as it gains some longitude. At any rate, multiple surface circulations within a larger monsoonal trough is difficult for models to find cohesiveness and consistency between runs. May take another few days to iron out.67c9495189280a0c452fdf1d1ae4cc71.jpg

Yeah, I think some short term development is looking increasingly likely, but I think we probably will agree it's going to find a hard time hanging on in the western Atlantic if it runs straight into Haiti/DR or Cuba and then encounters the PV streamer that's progged on some of the guidance near Florida. 

gfs_pv355K_watl_24.png

Of course, that can be hit or miss, so certainly something worth watching over the next few days. 

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles 
east of the Windward Islands continues to produce disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are expected 
to be favorable to support some gradual development over the next 
few days, and this system could become a tropical depression while 
it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.  The disturbance is 
forecast to reach portions of the Lesser Antilles late Monday, and 
then move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and 
near Hispaniola around the middle of this week.  Interests in those 
areas should monitor the progress of this system, as it could bring 
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of that area.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
located over the tropical Atlantic about midway between the Cabo 
Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles have diminished this morning. 
Although environmental conditions appear to be only marginally  
conducive for development, this system could still become a 
tropical depression later this week while it moves toward the 
west-southwest or west at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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If it’s true a weak El Niño is developing. We just see how it effect the rest of hurricane season. I realize we are not at peak yet. But does anyone believe forecast of amount of named storms will bust low? I’m sorta thinking that but know we could be in for a fun winter across the southeast.


.

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35 minutes ago, Jessy89 said:

If it’s true a weak El Niño is developing. We just see how it effect the rest of hurricane season. I realize we are not at peak yet. But does anyone believe forecast of amount of named storms will bust low? I’m sorta thinking that but know we could be in for a fun winter across the southeast.


.

Huh? Thought we were in la nina?

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