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StormchaserChuck!

2021 Atlantic Hurricane season

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El Nino coming, Weak to Moderate

TAO_5Day_EQ_xz.gif

SSTs are super warm and warming. We had a streak of like 10 consecutive years with El Nino of 12 or less names storms, and some even in the middle of a really active period in the 2000s.  In 2018-2019, the last El Nino we had 15 named storms. It will be interesting to see if can break that 15 number mark, it seems other conditions are super favorable. (We had 8 named storms in 14-15 a weak El Nino lol)

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TSR and CSU should be coming out with forecasts any day now. Anyone know when we can expect them?

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The Azores/Bermuda High was further west last year. This covered peninsular fla from direct strikes. But this year they expect the High to further East, and slightly north, this leaves the west coast of Fl and the entire east coast of the US open to hurricanes. There will be further forecasts as May 15 draws near. The SW caribe sea is forecasted to be a bit cooler, and if this proves to be true, central america, from Nicaragua to Panama, might catch a break this year.

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Interesting graphs being tweeted.  This one shows the average ENSO for peak season is heading to a weak Nina:

 

While this one shows a weak Nina producing the highest ACE:

 

 

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I have seen no warming in the E Pac, but it seems a bit weaker, though the cooler waters cover an enormous area N and S of the equator.  The edge of the cooler waters is near the  Hawian Isles.

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