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2021 Atlantic Hurricane season


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El Nino coming, Weak to Moderate

TAO_5Day_EQ_xz.gif

SSTs are super warm and warming. We had a streak of like 10 consecutive years with El Nino of 12 or less names storms, and some even in the middle of a really active period in the 2000s.  In 2018-2019, the last El Nino we had 15 named storms. It will be interesting to see if can break that 15 number mark, it seems other conditions are super favorable. (We had 8 named storms in 14-15 a weak El Nino lol)

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The Azores/Bermuda High was further west last year. This covered peninsular fla from direct strikes. But this year they expect the High to further East, and slightly north, this leaves the west coast of Fl and the entire east coast of the US open to hurricanes. There will be further forecasts as May 15 draws near. The SW caribe sea is forecasted to be a bit cooler, and if this proves to be true, central america, from Nicaragua to Panama, might catch a break this year.

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Interesting graphs being tweeted.  This one shows the average ENSO for peak season is heading to a weak Nina:

 

While this one shows a weak Nina producing the highest ACE:

 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...

30% on the 5-day:

1. A non-tropical low pressure system is forecast to develop a few 
hundred miles northeast of Bermuda by late Thursday and produce 
gale-force winds. The low could then move southwestward over warmer 
waters on Friday and acquire some subtropical characteristics 
before the system moves toward the north and northeast into a more 
hostile environment by Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

two_atl_5d0.png

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Quote
800 AM EDT Thu May 20 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A non-tropical low pressure system is located about 800 miles east 
of Bermuda.  The low is expected to develop gale-force winds later 
today while it moves generally northward. The low is then forecast 
to move westward and southwestward over warmer waters tonight and 
Friday, and it will likely become a subtropical cyclone near and to 
the northeast of Bermuda on Friday. The system is expected to move 
toward the north and northeast into a more hostile environment by 
late Sunday into Monday. For more information on this developing low 
pressure area, please see High Seas forecasts issued by the NOAA 
Ocean Prediction Center and forecast products issued by the Bermuda 
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

 

90.png

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