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Torch Tiger

April 2021 Discussion

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

BDL will hit 75 minimum one or more of next 3 days . Torch!

Get the green up going early so we can start pumping some dews into these airmasses. 

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5 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Best spring since 2012! Someone forgot what the end of April 2012 was like. Wheel of rhea

2012-04-22 57 43 50.0 -2.0 15 0 1.84 0.0
2012-04-23 62 43 52.5 0.1 12 0 0.92 0.0
2012-04-24 55 41 48.0 -4.7 17 0 0.01 0.0
2012-04-25 61 39 50.0 -3.1 15 0 0.04 0.0
2012-04-26 61 34 47.5 -5.9 17 0 T 0.0
2012-04-27 53 38 45.5 -8.3 19 0 0.01 0.0
2012-04-28 60 35 47.5 -6.6 17 0 0.00 0.0
2012-04-29 61 33 47.0 -7.4 18 0 0.00 0.0
2012-04-30 64 33 48.5 -6.2 16 0

That doesn’t seem bad.     The wheel of rhea HOF is Memorial Day weekend sometime in the mid 2000s.   40s and wet.

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8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

That doesn’t seem bad.     The wheel of rhea HOF is Memorial Day weekend sometime in the mid 2000s.   40s and wet.

That’s the year they had like 12+ in Freaks area 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s the year they had like 12+ in Freaks area 

That’s not it.  That was fairly recently.   The year I’m thinking about was ridiculously bad.  I could probably tolerate it now with more free time but it was infuriating then!

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14 minutes ago, weathafella said:

That doesn’t seem bad.     The wheel of rhea HOF is Memorial Day weekend sometime in the mid 2000s.   40s and wet.

Yeah...I mean it's allowed to rain from time to time...even in torch springs. If something like that is our worst stretch I'll take it.

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9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

That’s not it.  That was fairly recently.   The year I’m thinking about was ridiculously bad.  I could probably tolerate it now with more free time but it was infuriating then!

Oh it was 2005. That’s the year that Tip laments about. That spring was like a summer in San Francisco . Just brutal . We moved into this house in May of that year in rain , wet snow and 35 degrees with a 7 month pregnant wife 

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Yeah... I as looking at that NAM FOUS data/grid numbers from 00z last night... It just cannot warm up in that model - I don't know...I never noticed a "cold bias" per se in that source, but then againI don't in fact know why anyone would care to dissect it - lol...

I do - admittedly - use it for some conceptual aspects at < 36 hours.

I just didn't see T1 only 13C over the eastern Mass coastal plain as very realistically. Way too cold.

And I looked at the MOS ( MET ) form 12z yesterday and it had 61 F for maxes today at KFIT, 'ASH and BED...  Yeah, maybe BED if the s-breeze kicks in, but otherwise these sites pinged 60 at 8:45 this morning...

But it's not just the NAM.  The Euro's D7-10 ...c'mon.  I realize the -NAO and so forth but still ... is that 850 layout really believable ?  It's not even that it has that look, it's maintaining the cold profile/850 anomalies WITHOUT ever advecting new cold in ... basically, S of 50 N and E of 110 W, everywhere across the CONUS is kept at -1 850 mb temps for days of open April sun annihilating the planet. Bullshit is more likely...

Then the GFS ...ugh. That's just got a cold bias and deepens heights on the polar side of the westerlies...everywhere, always...starting D 3 or 4 and gets worse out in the extended - such that it hasn't yet seen seasonal change as far as I can tell. It runs out of its way to cancel seasonal advancement altogether.   I suspect if we do get a category 4 heat wave this summer ... the GFS will be the last model to see it coming.

SO, :15 prior to noon here in Ayer and the five home stations within 2 miles of here are all 68 to 70 already. 

Yeah, 61 -

I think though there is something somewhat unique about this set up/synoptic.  We are technically top heavy in the surface pressure pattern ...with higher surface pressure N of Maine nosing down... Since MOS has robust database/climo aspect to it, it's probable that history had us in a lot of easterly taint under this sort of set up ?  speculation - ... but here we are rather interestingly calm for so early of  date, given to that set up, so here in the interior we may be above the climate typology there .. We are not getting the Labrador cold life sucker flow -

I have to think though that a BD is going to slam some screen doors as we've come to joke, at some point over over the next three days... We are completely synoptically exposed to the vulnerabiliy in this look - surprised it hasn't already happened..

Also, anyone else notice the difference in the handling of that NAO block in the 00z guidance.  Seems there "might" be the very beginnings of dismantling the -NAO there...but we'll see .

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NNE flow off of Lake Winni is keeping the cumulus at bay at home while it’s BKN skies in CON. Deep blues along the coast too. Difference is no maritime influence here...up to 66°. 

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47 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah...I mean it's allowed to rain from time to time...even in torch springs. If something like that is our worst stretch I'll take it.

It was a miserable cloudy east wind stretch dude. You wish for that? Good luck This is Concord you were probably 5 degrees colder. What made it worse was the stretch of 70s and 80s the week before.  I am surprised 

2012-04-22 56 40 48.0 0.3 17 0 1.05 0.0 0
2012-04-23 59 39 49.0 0.9 16 0 1.23 0.0 0
2012-04-24 55 37 46.0 -2.4 19 0 0.02 0.0 0
2012-04-25 58 32 45.0 -3.8 20 0 T 0.0 0
2012-04-26 64 28 46.0 -3.2 19 0 0.22 0.0 0
2012-04-27 52 35 43.5 -6.0 21 0 0.06 0.0 0
2012-04-28 55 32 43.5 -6.4 21 0 0.00 0.0 0
2012-04-29 55 28 41.5 -8.7 23 0 0.00 0.0 0
2012-04-30 63 30 46.5 -4.1 18 0 0.00 0.0 0

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

It was a miserable cloudy east wind stretch dude. You wish for that? Good luck This is Concord you were probably 5 degrees colder

2012-04-22 56 40 48.0 0.3 17 0 1.05 0.0 0
2012-04-23 59 39 49.0 0.9 16 0 1.23 0.0 0
2012-04-24 55 37 46.0 -2.4 19 0 0.02 0.0 0
2012-04-25 58 32 45.0 -3.8 20 0 T 0.0 0
2012-04-26 64 28 46.0 -3.2 19 0 0.22 0.0 0
2012-04-27 52 35 43.5 -6.0 21 0 0.06 0.0 0
2012-04-28 55 32 43.5 -6.4 21 0 0.00 0.0 0
2012-04-29 55 28 41.5 -8.7 23 0 0.00 0.0 0
2012-04-30 63 30 46.5 -4.1 18 0 0.00 0.0 0

I said that’s not too bad for a crap stretch in April. We can pull multiple days of 40s or u30s with RADZ that time of year. 

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4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I said that’s not too bad for a crap stretch in April. We can pull multiple days of 40s or u30s with RADZ that time of year. 

Looks like my highs in that stretch were 53,56,53,56,62,49,52,53,63

So yeah it sucked, but if that’s the worst of the season then it’s a win. We were coming off of 70s/80s before the 22nd too. 

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Looks like my highs in that stretch were 53,56,53,56,62,49,52,53,63

So yeah it sucked, but if that’s the worst of the season then it’s a win. We were coming off of 70s/80s before the 22nd too. 

For late April after a stretch from March 20th of upper 60s 70s and 80s it was a miserable stretch. 

dwm500_test_20120425.gif

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7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I said that’s not too bad for a crap stretch in April. We can pull multiple days of 40s or u30s with RADZ that time of year. 

Pretty big diurnal range for cloudy with east winds.

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5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Pretty big diurnal range for cloudy with east winds.

Couple of days had late afternoon sun according to my records. But on whole was better west as usual. It stood out to me because we were in full bloom leaf out and had a freeze. Perhaps not the worst stretch but the narrative that spring 2012 was all sunshine and heat was what I was discounting 

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34 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Couple of days had late afternoon sun according to my records. But on whole was better west as usual. It stood out to me because we were in full bloom leaf out and had a freeze. Perhaps not the worst stretch but the narrative that spring 2012 was all sunshine and heat was what I was discounting 

Well we know only one person believes that.

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53 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Couple of days had late afternoon sun according to my records. But on whole was better west as usual. It stood out to me because we were in full bloom leaf out and had a freeze. Perhaps not the worst stretch but the narrative that spring 2012 was all sunshine and heat was what I was discounting 

And woods burning not too far away 

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Oh it was 2005. That’s the year that Tip laments about. That spring was like a summer in San Francisco . Just brutal . We moved into this house in May of that year in rain , wet snow and 35 degrees with a 7 month pregnant wife 

Late May 2005 at our place:

22   48   40   1.07
23   48   44   1.25
24   47   41   0.15
25   47   39   0.26
26   49   42   2.41

Also had measurable RA on 5/21 and 5/27-31, but lesser amounts and slightly milder.
 

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Couple of days had late afternoon sun according to my records. But on whole was better west as usual. It stood out to me because we were in full bloom leaf out and had a freeze. Perhaps not the worst stretch but the narrative that spring 2012 was all sunshine and heat was what I was discounting 

1st week of March 2012 had slightly BN temps, 10" SN and hit -10 on 3/6.  Late month featured 30s each day 26-30 with 2.2" SN.  In between was slightly different.

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Ah shit ... haven't seen the 12z Euro yet but the other guidance trying bring the vortex back on that hyper retrograde trajectory.   00z had backed off on that - was hoping...

We'll see what the Euro does...

I think that is gong to be the bigger sensible weather determinating factor - if that thing does buzz saw west toward Maine or not ... Not = possibly salvage mid month.

Wondering where this month goes after the -NAO ...

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26 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Up to 70F.

I gotta hit the bike ride now or suffer the consequences ... the fair cu field is visibly eroded back west over the eastern sky, which means the under cut breeze is coming .. thing is, I've been miles deep on rides when that sucker comes in and despite the work you get chilled uncomfortably -

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