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Severe Event March 25th 2021


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2 minutes ago, ALweather said:

That seems to be the trend lately. Is there a reason for this? Have they changed their parameters for issuing one or are they just more trigger happy than they once were?

In this case it is Broyles being Broyles. Everything is the outbreak of the century to him

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1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said:

That cell and the cell to its south both have pretty big potential imo

The I-20 corridor looks like it has potential for several more hours. The return flow is pumping unstable air back north. Hopefully more storms don’t take a beeline toward Birmingham...

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0257  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0229 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE  
  
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY   
  
VALID 251929Z - 252130Z  
  
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT  
  
SUMMARY...THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES WILL  
INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND PERSIST THROUGH  
THE EVENING. A WATCH MAY BE ISSUED BY 21Z.  
  
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WARM FRONT INTO FAR  
SOUTHWESTERN TN EXTENDING EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN AL.  
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE DEVELOPING SURFACE  
LOW FROM SOUTHERN IL INTO CENTRAL KY.  
  
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FRONTS, GRADUAL WARMING IS TAKING PLACE, WITH  
TEMPERATURES NOW INTO THE LOW 70S F. MUCAPE CURRENTLY REMAINS BELOW  
1000 J/KG AS A RESULT OF DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F.  
  
STRENGTHENING 850 MB WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY SHOULD  
AID MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT OF MS INTO MIDDLE TN, WITH AREAS OF  
HEATING HELPING TO DESTABILIZE AS WELL. SHEAR WILL BECOME  
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IN THE 21-03Z TIME  
FRAME, AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE ANTICIPATED AS THE MID 60S F  
DEWPOINTS ARRIVE LATER TODAY. WITH THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE,  
EFFECTIVE SRH MAY REACH 400-500 M2/S2.  
  
..JEWELL/HART.. 03/25/2021  

 

ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0258  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0233 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER OHIO  
RIVER VALLEY REGION  
  
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY   
  
VALID 251933Z - 252130Z  
  
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT  
  
SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY IN THE COMING HOURS AS A SURFACE  
LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE  
LATE AFTERNOON.  
  
DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE  
SHOWN 2-3 MB SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER NORTHEAST AR INTO THE LOWER  
OH RIVER VALLEY REGION. THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST AR  
CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AND IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN FURTHER AS IT  
LIFTS TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS, AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE  
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AND ALLOW A HIGHER THETA-E AIR  
MASS (NOTED BY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S) TO OVERSPREAD  
THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY REGIONS AND ALLOW  
MLCAPE TO INCREASE INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. STORMS ARE FORECAST  
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH IN THE  
VICINITY OF THE LOW, AND SOUTHWESTERLY 60-70 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK  
SHEAR WILL HELP SUPPORT DISCRETE TO SEMI-DISCRETE STORM MODES. ALONG  
WITH A HAIL/WIND THREAT, BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITHIN THE OPEN WARM  
SECTOR WILL SUPPORT ESRH VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 300 M2/S2 AND A  
TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY DISCRETE CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP. RECENT  
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STORM INITIATION WITHIN THIS REGION MAY OCCUR  
WITHIN THE 22-00 UTC TIME FRAME. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE  
NEEDED IN THE COMING HOURS TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.  
  
..MOORE/HART.. 03/25/2021  

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6 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

In this case it is Broyles being Broyles. Everything is the outbreak of the century to him

To be fair, the hodos were insane on the forecast soundings across *all* modeling going into this event. If the observed evolution deviates substantially from that, it will be a major fail of NWP.

*Note that I am NOT calling for that, yet, but it sure does seem that high-ceiling severe weather threats are on a long streak of never evolving as expected.

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Just now, VOLtage said:

Agreed. It's way too early to be calling this a bust.

Same thing happened on 4-12-20, prior to the series of long-tracked massive supercell tornadoes.  Also, there's a wedge on the ground in eastern AL.  TOO EARLY TO CALL BUST.

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