Bob's Burgers

Severe Event March 25th 2021

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Just now, jpeters3 said:

All of the latest ones are pretty darn concerning, eh?

Most of them have been pretty bad outbreaks, though 10z was down a tick. 11z is back to a major outbreak.

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Concerning? Very! Is there anything at all at this point that could throw a wrench in this?

A209047E-1FCE-4004-8F44-6A5CD16039BE.jpeg

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2 minutes ago, Chip said:

Concerning? Very! Is there anything at all at this point that could throw a wrench in this?

A209047E-1FCE-4004-8F44-6A5CD16039BE.jpeg

There always is.  Too much convection blowing up too early in the warm sector could substantially reduce supercell coverage, for instance.

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Initial look at a couple 12z soundings. JAN needs some boundary layer recovery, but that won’t take long with this setup. LIX is already quite unstable. Look at that CAPE...

2021032512.72235.skewt.parc.gif

2021032512.72233.skewt.parc.gif

One thing I have noticed from early morning data is that low-level lapse rates are not very favorable yet. Mostly <6 C/km. That means it will probably be a few hours at least until action really gets going. Probably midday? Possibly late morning. 

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Latest HRRR run is nuts... Not looking very messy at all + many discrete/semi-discrete supercells. Not able to look at forecast soundings right now, but I suspect it’s forecasting an EML that’s *just that much stronger* than last night’s 00z run..

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Between the soundings we are getting and what the models are showing, this as about as textbook of an outbreak set-up as you’re ever going to see. 

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Edwards went all in with the 13z discussion. One of the strongest worded discussions you will ever see folks. Very bad day ahead.

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Just now, jojo762 said:

Edwards went all in with the 13z discussion. One of the strongest worded discussions you will ever see folks. Very bad day ahead.

Even stronger than the May 20 2019 disco? 

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Just now, jojo762 said:

Edwards went all in with the 13z discussion. One of the strongest worded discussions you will ever see folks. Very bad day ahead.

Kinda surprising they didn't go with 45%

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   This is an uncommon, upper-echelon parameter space.  In such an
   environment, any relatively discrete supercells will be capable of
   multiple tornadoes, some long-tracked and strong to violent (EF2-5
   possible), with considerable destructive potential.  A very moist
   boundary layer also will reduce potential cold-pool/outflow strength
   via less subcloud evaporation, so that even closely spaced storms
   may have substantial tornado threats.  Forecast wind fields and
   model soundings reasonably suggest any sustained supercells and
   their tornadoes will be fast-moving (45-55 kt), with individual
   tornado paths nearly as long in miles as their duration in minutes.

That sounds about as ominous as it gets.

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5 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Kinda surprising they didn't go with 45%

This is inconsequential.  The discussion speaks for itself.

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5 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Kinda surprising they didn't go with 45%

Could go w/ a 45% on the afternoon update if observations start to line up with forecasts.

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Could go w/ a 45% on the afternoon update if observations start to line up with forecasts.

The day nobody likes to mention didn’t have a 45% until the afternoon update.

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If there's any consolation, it's that the primary threat area is centered over the least populous part of that region. Of course all those bigger cities in the moderate/enhanced are certainly quite at risk as well, but a silver lining nonetheless

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9 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

If there's any consolation, it's that the primary threat area is centered over the least populous part of that region. Of course all those bigger cities in the moderate/enhanced are certainly quite at risk as well, but a silver lining nonetheless

Huntsville metro has half a million people. Granted that’s a bit smaller than Birmingham and a lot smaller than Nashville, but comparable to Jackson, MS, and I think the general consensus (with which I agree) was that it was lucky that a “population center” like the Jackson area dodged a bullet last week. A tornado in or around Huntsville would be catastrophic.

 

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1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

If there's any consolation, it's that the primary threat area is centered over the least populous part of that region. Of course all those bigger cities in the moderate/enhanced are certainly quite at risk as well, but a silver lining nonetheless

Also storms don’t follow lines on a map. Unfortunately if any of these storms do go tornadic then from what I am gathering they will be long trackers this may extend into the moderate zone especially.

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One thing to note is the ongoing conveyor belt across central/eastern Mississippi. The most ideal parameter space is progged to develop along and just southeast of this zone by midday/early afternoon. The HRRR has trended just a tick SE, zeroing in on central/eastern Mississippi into central Alabama. You can obviously have tornadoes elsewhere, but you can envision a scenario with several long track, strong tornadic supercells racing across this area. 

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26 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Huntsville metro has half a million people. Granted that’s a bit smaller than Birmingham and a lot smaller than Nashville, but comparable to Jackson, MS, and I think the general consensus (with which I agree) was that it was lucky that a “population center” like the Jackson area dodged a bullet last week. A tornado in or around Huntsville would be catastrophic.

 

I live in huntsville. We get tornados  through here every year.  This is just part of living in this area.  They usually follow pretty similar paths through the valley as well.  

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6 minutes ago, bamabonners said:

I live in huntsville. We get tornados  through here every year.  This is just part of living in this area.  They usually follow pretty similar paths through the valley as well.  

Sorry, I should have specified what I meant by “a tornado.” I’m not talking about garden variety EF-1’s, I mean something like an EF-4. I’m happy for you that the severity and paths of the tornadoes you get every year haven’t been catastrophic, and I hope we’ll still be able to say the same tomorrow.

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In Monticello, Arkansas.   Sitting just outside the enhanced area.   No sun yet but the air is thick and soupy for sure..... 

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6 minutes ago, bamabonners said:

I live in huntsville. We get tornados  through here every year.  This is just part of living in this area.  They usually follow pretty similar paths through the valley as well.  

We get plenty here too, doesn't change anything when we get a violent one through one of the metros, still a catastrophe 

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A tornado outbreak -- including the threat of a few long-tracked,
violent tornadoes -- is expected today into early this evening over
the Southeast, especially parts of Mississippi, Alabama and
Tennessee.  Tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging winds
to hurricane force also are possible over a broad area from the
central Gulf Coast to the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians.

Not sure I've ever seen language that strong used to describe a situation in the Southeast.

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The NAM nest is a bit out to lunch on early day convection, but has gone all in on the outbreak scenario.

 

12Z-20210325_NAMNSTSE_prec_radar-0-10-10-100.gif

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