SchaumburgStormer Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Just now, MattPetrulli said: While there's some pretty premature bust talk, cell NE of Pell City, AL getting ready to produce again. Copic getting in for another near death experience I am sure, but the shot looks good so far. https://livestormchasing.com/chasers/brandon.copic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, ALweather said: That seems to be the trend lately. Is there a reason for this? Have they changed their parameters for issuing one or are they just more trigger happy than they once were? In this case it is Broyles being Broyles. Everything is the outbreak of the century to him 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Just now, Moderately Unstable said: New TOR-W in MS issued. Looks to be going over Chunky right now. That cell and the cell to its south both have pretty big potential imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 In this case it is Broyles being Broyles. Everything is the outbreak of the century to himRich Thompson issued the one at 11:30 local time, I kinda defer to his judgment, lol. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said: That cell and the cell to its south both have pretty big potential imo The I-20 corridor looks like it has potential for several more hours. The return flow is pumping unstable air back north. Hopefully more storms don’t take a beeline toward Birmingham... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 And it's only 2:30 local time, yes may a historical outbreak not happen, but we've already had a very damaging tornado with multiple injuries, it's far from over. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Lol, just as the weenies start to call bust, the "junkvection line" starts to turn into supercells. Look at eastern MS 12 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0257 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0229 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 251929Z - 252130Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. A WATCH MAY BE ISSUED BY 21Z. DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WARM FRONT INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN TN EXTENDING EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN AL. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW FROM SOUTHERN IL INTO CENTRAL KY. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FRONTS, GRADUAL WARMING IS TAKING PLACE, WITH TEMPERATURES NOW INTO THE LOW 70S F. MUCAPE CURRENTLY REMAINS BELOW 1000 J/KG AS A RESULT OF DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F. STRENGTHENING 850 MB WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY SHOULD AID MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT OF MS INTO MIDDLE TN, WITH AREAS OF HEATING HELPING TO DESTABILIZE AS WELL. SHEAR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IN THE 21-03Z TIME FRAME, AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE ANTICIPATED AS THE MID 60S F DEWPOINTS ARRIVE LATER TODAY. WITH THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE, EFFECTIVE SRH MAY REACH 400-500 M2/S2. ..JEWELL/HART.. 03/25/2021 ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0258 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0233 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021 AREAS AFFECTED...THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 251933Z - 252130Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY IN THE COMING HOURS AS A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE SHOWN 2-3 MB SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER NORTHEAST AR INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY REGION. THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST AR CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AND IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN FURTHER AS IT LIFTS TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS, AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AND ALLOW A HIGHER THETA-E AIR MASS (NOTED BY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S) TO OVERSPREAD THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY REGIONS AND ALLOW MLCAPE TO INCREASE INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW, AND SOUTHWESTERLY 60-70 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL HELP SUPPORT DISCRETE TO SEMI-DISCRETE STORM MODES. ALONG WITH A HAIL/WIND THREAT, BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITHIN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT ESRH VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 300 M2/S2 AND A TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY DISCRETE CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP. RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STORM INITIATION WITHIN THIS REGION MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE 22-00 UTC TIME FRAME. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE COMING HOURS TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN. ..MOORE/HART.. 03/25/2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VOLtage Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Just now, jpeters3 said: Lol, just as the weenies start to call bust, the "junkvection line" starts to turn into supercells. Look at eastern MS Agreed. It's way too early to be calling this a bust. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 major tds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALweather Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, cheese007 said: In this case it is Broyles being Broyles. Everything is the outbreak of the century to him Honestly, that could also describe a lot of the posters at Talkweather too. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Major TDS near Ragland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 I'm guilty of calling bust many times but this one is just starting lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 Vrot 68 knots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Copic has the tornado right in front of him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 1 minute ago, jpeters3 said: Lol, just as the weenies start to call bust, the "junkvection line" starts to turn into supercells. Look at eastern MS And Pell City cell develops a debris ball. The trolling here is subpar. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 6 minutes ago, cheese007 said: In this case it is Broyles being Broyles. Everything is the outbreak of the century to him To be fair, the hodos were insane on the forecast soundings across *all* modeling going into this event. If the observed evolution deviates substantially from that, it will be a major fail of NWP. *Note that I am NOT calling for that, yet, but it sure does seem that high-ceiling severe weather threats are on a long streak of never evolving as expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Just now, VOLtage said: Agreed. It's way too early to be calling this a bust. Same thing happened on 4-12-20, prior to the series of long-tracked massive supercell tornadoes. Also, there's a wedge on the ground in eastern AL. TOO EARLY TO CALL BUST. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 https://livestormchasing.com/chasers/brandon.copic Has a good look, wicked rotation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Copic sees large tornado again apparently, better not get close to being killed again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Just now, ALweather said: Honestly, that could also describe a lot of the posters at Talkweather too. Myself included? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Just now, TexMexWx said: Copic sees large tornado again apparently, better not get close to being killed again. He was close again, and the stream cut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Wow, the motion on that tornado east of Ragland is wicked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Just now, SchaumburgStormer said: https://livestormchasing.com/chasers/brandon.copic Has a good look, wicked rotation Holy sh*t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Five active Tor warnings, with two confirmed.... Definitely a bust. lol This forum sometimes. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Copic is way too ****ing close to this monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 There's a circulation developing south of Berry, AL that might need to be warned soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said: https://livestormchasing.com/chasers/brandon.copic Has a good look, wicked rotation Stream looks like it went offline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 Ohatchee going to take a direct hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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