bamabonners Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 14 minutes ago, ATDoel said: Who's saying this is another 2011? I haven't seen or heard of anyone notable making that connection. Seems like the is exactly what adair is saying... I haven't seen this since then.. that would imply that this is another 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 45 TOR issued in 1630 OTLK 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Just now, bamabonners said: Seems like the is exactly what adair is saying... I haven't seen this since then.. that would imply that this is another 2011. No, it'd imply that since 2011 no other event has had this sort of a setup. That's what the word "since" means. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Okay, okay... it looks like we're all saying pretty much the same thing now, so let's move on to actually discussing what's about to go down today. Thanks y'all As posted above, incoming PDS watch for MS/AL. Also, WF is still currently over far N/NE MS, and cutting through or just NE of the Birmingham metro, based on SPC mesoanalysis as of 16z. Warm air advection is probably going to keep pushing it a bit farther north and northeast, but just how much remains to be seen, as the wedge might be holding on slightly longer than expected. Thoughts? Just saw the post from @yoda as I was typing this. Wow... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ander Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 18 minutes ago, bamabonners said: All these hype clowns keep throwing out 2011, 2011, 2011, 2011... The more you use it, the less weight it will carry. Then, people get tired of it or ignore it. Then, it comes across as fear mongering or hype. Where way, it is ridiculous. Just give the facts and keep the hype away... Some people have a genuine fear of weather and these types of reports don't help. As a weather noob, but political science and policy professional, I have some survey data (pandemic disrupted plans to publish) showing that the public does not get tired or ignore stuff when it turns out to be overhyped and wrong. We focused on hurricane warnings and preparedness and found warnings that did not live up to the hype failed to diminish peoples willingness to prepare for and believe future warnings. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Alright, cut the crap fellas. It's go time. Convection starting to develop in srn MS along I-55. Would watch these cells first. Shocked to see that probability upgrade at 1630z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 1 hour ago, wizard021 said: A high risk remains unwarranted, enh or moderate would be enough. Stop. This will be your only warning. I will not hesitate to send you to timeout for the next 5 days. Proceed carefully 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Some storms starting to fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 ..SUMMARY A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED WITH NUMEROUS STRONG AND A FEW LONG-TRACK, POTENTIALLY VIOLENT TORNADOES. AN INITIAL ROUND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. A SEPARATE SWATH SHOULD EMANATE FROM SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS TO LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. .DEEP SOUTH MINOR CHANGE MADE TO THE CATEGORICAL HIGH RISK AREA TO EXPAND A BIT. MAIN CHANGE IS TO THE UNDERLYING PROBABILITIES WITH THE ADDITION OF A 45 TOR AND 45 WIND. A DANGEROUS, LONG-DURATION TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED TO COMMENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST WELL INTO TONIGHT WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEIGHTENED TORNADO POTENTIAL. ONGOING CONVECTION IS WITHIN AN ARC WITH A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL FROM FAR EAST TX TO NORTHEAST AR AND THEN IN A MORE WEST/EAST-ORIENTATION FROM NORTHEAST AR TO THE AL/TN BORDER AREA. THE NORTHERN ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO REINFORCE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE TN BORDER WITH MS/AL THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHWEST BAND WILL LIKELY PERSIST EAST AND SHOULD BREAKUP INTO A BROKEN BAND OF SUPERCELLS AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FURTHER STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE ARK-LA-MISS REGION. FARTHER EAST, WARM-ADVECTION SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST MS TO WEST-CENTRAL AL WILL LIKELY DEEPEN BY EARLY AFTERNOON INTO A SEPARATE SWATH OF SEVERAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRENGTHENING LOW TO DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS, THE DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR WITH WARMING BOUNDARY-LAYER TEMPERATURES AND MID 60S TO LOW 70S DEW POINTS, WILL SUPPORT AN EXPANSIVE PLUME OF 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY TONIGHT, A LOW-LEVEL JET SEGMENT WILL STRENGTHEN TO AT LEAST 50-60 KT ACROSS MS/AL AS THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, CONTRIBUTING TO VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR (0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2). BUOYANCY WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND WITH EASTWARD EXTENT BASED ON THE PREVALENCE OF RATHER RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER DEW POINTS, VERY FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES (WITH 700-MB WINDS REACHING 70-80 KT) WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR LONG-TRACK, INTENSE TORNADOES WITH BOTH WARM-SECTOR SUPERCELLS, AS WELL AS SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE BROKEN BAND NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS MS BY EARLY TONIGHT. THE STRONG TORNADO AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND THREAT WHILE BECOMING MORE SPATIALLY CONFINED WITH TIME, WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF AL OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD SPREAD INTO WESTERN GA BEFORE 12Z. ..GRAMS/BENTLEY.. 03/17/2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Is that 45% the highest ever tornado prob on this outlook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Just now, Cyclone-68 said: Is that 45% the highest ever tornado prob on this outlook? I'm not quite clear on what you are asking... but the TOR probs go up to 60 percent. I believe its been 60 percent on different event outlooks at 1630z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Just now, yoda said: I'm not quite clear on what you are asking... but the TOR probs go up to 60 percent. I believe its been 60 percent on different event outlooks at 1630z Sorry and yes that’s what I was trying to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Didn't they already lose power for like a month in central MS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Just now, wizard021 said: I dont care what you tell me. You had a problem with me during the hurricane season too. I'm allowed my opinion. You haven't added any reasoning and you are the troll . See you in a few days. 11 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 1 minute ago, wizard021 said: I dont care what you tell me. You had a problem with me during the hurricane season too. I'm allowed my opinion. You haven't added any reasoning and you are the troll . Bye 13 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Are probabilities defined as odds of a tornado within a circle who's radius is 25 miles, or as odds that a line segment 25 miles long will be crossed by a tornado? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 I feel like I'm watching ESPN debating MJ vs Lebron for the 1,000,000th time seeing all the comparisons to April 27 on here. That being said, surface based CAPE across the region at the moment is insane for 11:30 AM. This atmosphere is so ripe, looks like a classic multi-round tornado event today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Stuff kicking off already, gotta get the watch up soon I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATDoel Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Those cells just west of Birmingham look to already have some broad rotation, the event wasn't supposed to start until 1... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Just now, ATDoel said: Those cells just west of Birmingham look to already have some broad rotation, the event wasn't supposed to start until 1... yep..already getting that look and are discrete may really start to spin when they hit that warm front right around the time they are over a major Metro area too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Just now, janetjanet998 said: yep..already getting that look and are discrete may really start to spin when they hit that warm front right around the time they are over a major Metro area too Check out the storm between Meridien and Hattiesburg, MS. Local Jackson, MS news network met mentioned that the SPC is ready to issue a PDS tornado watch for most of MS, within the hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 13 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Are probabilities defined as odds of a tornado within a circle who's radius is 25 miles, or as odds that a line segment 25 miles long will be crossed by a tornado? Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of any point within the area outlined by the contour (or technically, to the right of the contour line, which is actually drawn as an arrow chasing its tail). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 29 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM CDT WED MAR 17 2021 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA CENTRAL TO EASTERN MISSISSIPPI * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1135 AM UNTIL 700 PM CDT. ..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... NUMEROUS TORNADOES EXPECTED WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80 MPH LIKELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY SUMMARY...NUMEROUS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO INTENSE TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Wonder how high the probabilities on that watch will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Upper Level LOL said: Wonder how high the probabilities on that watch will be Tornadoes Probability of 2 or more tornadoes High (>95%) Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes High (90%) 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Well that's about as strong a watch as you can issue, my goodness. Stay safe y'all. High precip, low cloud bases, screaming storm movement....ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 I think I found a Couplet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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