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2021 Short/Medium Range Severe Thread


Hoosier
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88/59 at Madison at 5 PM...just stepped outside and it actually felt a little muggy, although it has become overcast*. Not that I ever really had high expectations for today as far as chaseworthiness, but definitely not a T/Td spread that screams :twister:

*Radar actually shows a line of weaksauce showers already formed and about to pass over us. HRRR says to expect main line around 2 AM-3 AM CDT or exactly when I will be commuting to work. :axe:

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10 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

88/59 at Madison at 5 PM...just stepped outside and it actually felt a little muggy, although it has become overcast*. Not that I ever really had high expectations for today as far as chaseworthiness, but definitely not a T/Td spread that screams :twister:

*Radar actually shows a line of weaksauce showers already formed and about to pass over us. HRRR says to expect main line around 2 AM-3 AM CDT or exactly when I will be commuting to work. :axe:

Tornado threat was always slim to none.

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Decent looking supercell west of Wabasha, MN, probably will just be a hailer for the time being. Looks like the SE-moving complex may be beginning to take shape between the Twin Cities and La Crosse. If that's the case, it may be through here several hours earlier than the HRRR has been consistently indicating.

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01Z SPC outlooked maintained ENH risk for sig wind for southern WI/northwest IL, even though there's only one warned cell in the complex near La Crosse right now and we're still not yet under a watch. They really could have dropped the 5% tornado.

*Edit: Watch finally out.

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37 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

If I had any less enthusiasm about this thing for my area, it might be in negative territory.

Meh looks like a miss for Northern tier IL counties also

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Just now, SchaumburgStormer said:

Good thing that the area from mby up to yours doesn’t desperately need rain or anything like that. Otherwise another miss would be real frustrating 

Starting to believe we are cursed

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14 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Starting to believe we are cursed

I mean, one event is not really going to break a drought that has reached the magnitude of this.  The upcoming period looks to have multiple precip chances, so at least there's that.  Throw enough s*** at the wall and something is bound to stick.  If it does turn into a series of misses or underperformers, then I think that could be a real problem because I forsee some big heat potential building in around the close of this month. 

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Looks like something is trying to pop up on radar on the IL/IA border around 12:45 AM.

Not confident anything will last or move into N IL but it's still 80 degrees out at 1 AM so there has to be *something * to work with if things get started.

 

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