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Spring/Summer 2021 Banter/Complaint Thread


madwx
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6 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Nature has a way of balancing things out so I would be on the lookout for some extremely active years soon

Every year I keep thinking that and every year it's more of this crap.

Even the much-anticipated stretch in 2019 underproduced. Yes there was Dayton in this sub but most of the days turned out underwhelming compared to their ceiling.

I was thinking Northern IL was primed for Rochelle 2.0 that day (and was actually chasing this time), but the surface winds veered.

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4 minutes ago, frostfern said:

Climate change has ended real thunderstorm weather in the Great Lakes.  Instead we have the perpetual Texas to Alabama monsoon with a dry block to the north.

There will never be thunder again north of 40N.

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

There will never be thunder again north of 40N.

I notice there is now more thunder north of 45N.  EML plume always heads for the arrowhead of Minnesota.  Duluth is now a better severe weather spot.  The screw zone is between 40 and 45, east of the Mississippi.

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9 hours ago, frostfern said:

I notice there is now more thunder north of 45N.  EML plume always heads for the arrowhead of Minnesota.  Duluth is now a better severe weather spot.  The screw zone is between 40 and 45, east of the Mississippi.

 I take the lack of severe weather as a good sign for better snow.  I don't have an exact study to back it up but I do know that the best severe weather of my life was about 1996-2002 when we were having mostly sub par winters.  A notable increase in snowfall and decrease in severe weather has been seen over the last 2 decades.  Probably one of the most notorious stretches of severe weather in our areas history was between 1953 and 1956. Tornadoes galore....sandwiched in with all mild winters. 

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21 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

 I take the lack of severe weather as a good sign for better snow.

Yeah no thanks, I’d rather have a weekly tornado outbreak over more snow, we get enough of that already that won’t leave until almost May.

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Been keeping track of the Chicagoland weather for the past six months and comparing it with the listed averages as per the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. I've found that Feb-May were about 10-15 degrees colder than average, and now June is looking to be 10 degrees warmer than average. Basically, we got virtually zero nice weather this year, went straight from cold to hot.

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17 minutes ago, NorthIllinois said:

Been keeping track of the Chicagoland weather for the past six months and comparing it with the listed averages as per the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. I've found that Feb-May were about 10-15 degrees colder than average, and now June is looking to be 10 degrees warmer than average. Basically, we got virtually zero nice weather this year, went straight from cold to hot.

February to May wasn't even close to 10 degrees below average.

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Just looking at summer a little more closely with my modelling method shows quite a variable summer with temps, and plenty of rain/thunder chances. Can't talk to the svr part for everyone, but the chances are there, especially my way.

Edit: Added map for my thinking.

Summer temp forecast.png

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6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Here's an approximation of February-May temps.  Not even in the same area code as 10 below average in northern IL.

 

120dTDeptUS.thumb.png.225c3ca54fb9892ca108ce341cb3f684.png

It’s actually pretty impressive how much of the US managed below normal temperatures for a 4 month period. You don’t see that much anymore.

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^ Is that map relative to the new 1991-2020 normals? 

Would be interesting to see the same map, but vs. the 1961-1990 normals instead.  In some areas, 1991-2020 is 2-4F higher than 1961-1990, due to a combination of background warming and UHI.  I think the purples would become greens, and the greens would become yellows (in most areas).

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17 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

^ Is that map relative to the new 1991-2020 normals? 

Would be interesting to see the same map, but vs. the 1961-1990 normals instead.  In some areas, 1991-2020 is 2-4F higher than 1961-1990, due to a combination of background warming and UHI.  I think the purples would become greens, and the greens would become yellows (in most areas).

Yes, they did switch over to 1991-2020 normals.

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11 hours ago, Brian D said:

Just looking at summer a little more closely with my modelling method shows quite a variable summer with temps, and plenty of rain/thunder chances. Can't talk to the svr part for everyone, but the chances are there, especially my way.

Edit: Added map for my thinking.

Summer temp forecast.png

Yea.  Your way.  There's always thunderstorms in Minnesota in the summer.  I grantee here will be below average precip and boring as hell.  

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36 minutes ago, Jonger said:

I have to play video games with a good headset to experience thunderstorms. The real ones ended 10 to 15 years ago around here.

Every once in a while there's a good one in late August or early September here.  Spring and early summer has been dead for years.  

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3 hours ago, Jonger said:

I have to play video games with a good headset to experience thunderstorms. The real ones ended 10 to 15 years ago around here.

I haven't experienced a real thunderstorm since I moved to Macomb County, MI eleven years ago.

I went to Michigan State from 02-07 and they had some awesome storms. For eleven years I've watched awesome storm systems roll off the lakes on the west side of the state and just absolutely die as soon as they hit the Oakland/Macomb county line. 

It's enough to make me think about buying a decent truck and spend a few weekends a summer chasing storms out on the west side. 

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